The Daily Grind: New Meta

Another week, another Grind.

AGENDA

1. New Meta
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. Hitters to Use
5. SaberSim Says…
6. TDG Invitational Returns!

1. New Meta

I’ve always taken a pitching first approach to DFS lineup construction. The reason can be summed up in one word – consistency. Other solitary words also fit after the hyphen. Pitchers are the easiest position to predict on an individual day. Which is not to say that they’re easy to predict. It’s just much more common for Chris Sale to hit his projection than most non-Trout hitters. In the past, spiking a pitcher was step one to reaching the money in a GPP.

With the home run surge surging surge-ily, I’ve adopted a new approach. It’s time to start focusing on my preferred hitting targets then fitting whatever pitcher is available. Only a few fluky days have been decided by top pitchers. For the most part, multi-homer games have carried each and every day. I asked the folks at Baseball Reference to confirm my impression. Behold!

This year is tied with 2000 for the most 2-HR games thru the first 30 of the season https://t.co/ymGO8cMLdm https://t.co/koAasVoCme

— Baseball Reference (@baseball_ref) May 8, 2017

To celebrate my new meta, I have removed “Players to Avoid” with another new category – Hitters to Use. Someday, we’ll settle on a permanent Section 4. This is not to say I will only focus on the biggest bats available. All too often, a heroic pick of Daniel Nava or Tim Beckham is the necessary key to success.

2. Weather Reports

Ruh-roh, Colorado has a risk of storms for most of the day. Yeah, you want to use Coors Field hitters, but you also want to know they’re going to play. Monitor accordingly.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Main Slate: All 10 games are a part of the main contest. Jacob deGrom and Carlos Martinez headline the action. deGrom is hosting the Giants. They always make for a weird DFS matchup. They have a middling offense and a low strikeout rate. Generally, you can neither use nor abuse them. deGrom has looked like a Cy Young candidate through six starts. Most notably, his 12.03 K/9 ranks fourth in the majors. CMart is ninth on that list. He’ll work in Miami.

Masahiro Tanaka couldn’t possibly have an easier path to a victory, could he? Rookie Davis should prove to be a popular stacking target tonight. I do have some worries about Tanaka since Great American Ballpark is so hitter friendly. I always wonder if these AL pitchers will be thrown off by having to bat for themselves. Scrubs.

Jake Arrieta is cheap by virtue of visiting Coors Field. I’d suggest rolling the dice if it didn’t look like he’d be interrupted by storms.

Trevor Cahill probably looks extremely tempting to just about everybody (aside from DraftKings pricing system). He’ll face a DH-less Rangers offense. Cahill combines a high ground ball rate with newfound whiffs and his typical poor command. Just remember, due to the crappy command, he’ll never be a consistent resource.

Nate Karns has pitched reasonably well in four of six appearances. Only one of those – the most recent – was useful to DFS participants. He’ll see the Rays and super wild Blake Snell.

Keep an eye out for Alex Wood. The Dodgers are thinking about skipping Brandon McCarthy due to a minor weight room injury.

Stack Targets: Davis, Trevor Williams, Nick Martinez, Antonio Senzatela, Adam Conley, Kevin Gausman, Ricky Nolasco, Matt Moore

4. Hitters to Use

If they’re probably going to play, go ahead and use the Coors Field folks. These stormy days are the best times to use the venue. You’ll only have to share with a quarter of your rivals rather than half of them.

Bryce Harper AND Mike Trout are day-to-day with minor injuries. What has become of our world? Supposedly, they’ll both return to the lineup today. Daniel Murphy, Ryan Zimmerman, and Trea Turner are also very much desirable against the early-season version of Gausman.

Aaron Judge and friends are slugging in Cincinnati. So many must-use stacks today… I wonder which one will slip through the cracks. I doubt it’ll be the Yankees.

My money is on the Dodgers. Trevor Williams is a special kind of terrible. Cody Bellinger, Andrew Toles, and Corey Seager are my favorites.

5. SaberSim Says…

deGrom, Snell, Wood [sic], Moore, Karns, and Tanaka are the top five (plus incorrectly listed Wood). If Wood is un-bumped, you now know where he fits. Personally, I’m way down on Snell and Moore. Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and Trout are the top hitters. Duh.

6. The Daily Grind Invitational

Paul Goldschmidt, Cody Bellinger, and Chris Archer fueled the fire for jk38wg last Friday. An entree into the $4 Squeeze would have returned a cool $40. Congrats to him and the four new participants who monied. The leaderboard is updated.

Monday is usually FanDuel day, but I’m switching over to DraftKings because I actually make money there. Linky link.