The Daily Grind: More Correa, Rodon, Velazquez, Rusney

Agenda

1. Farnsworth on Correa
2. Daily DFS – Keuchel, Rodon, Anibal
3. Tomorrow’s Targets – Velazquez, Moscot, Castillo, Burns
4. Factor Grid

1. Farnsworth on Correa

Ask and ye shall receive. From the lips of Dan Farnsworth’s fingertips – analysis of Carlos Correa’s swing:

He’s come a long way in the last year or two with his swing, but I’m still questioning how much his home run totals are going to reflect his excellent raw power. He swings down an awful lot for a guy who you’d hope is trying to hit the ball in the air. He has made improvements in that area to be sure. Check out these from past years (video one, video two) and compare them to this year (video three). His swing isn’t nearly as choppy as it was, but the tendency is still there for him to throw his hands down at the ground in front of the plate.

He’s strong enough that he can still hit balls out, but it isn’t due to having much natural lift to his swing like most hitters that show the type of power he’s projected to have in the big leagues. Luckily, he does well controlling the strike zone, making contact, running the bases and playing defense. He won’t need to rack up 20 homers to be a very valuable player. And also, maybe he continues to develop and starts to create some more natural lift. It will take a conscious effort to do so.

I don’t think it’s the case that he just has to fill out and get stronger. He’s already plenty strong enough to drive balls out of the park. He’s taken a lot of swings that way, and I tend to err on the side of hitters staying the same, particularly if they’ve had success swinging the way they have. Good is the enemy of great, they say, and in Correa’s case it’s probably more apt to phrase it that great is the enemy of elite. Great player, but I don’t see the 20-30 homer power he could have as being in his future for a while, if ever. Doubles count too, though.

2. Daily DFS – Keuchel, Rodon, Anibal

Yesterday’s Grind

It’s an All Play Tuesday. If you’re working the GPP circuit, consider giving Carlos Rodon a spin. Sure, it’s safer to use Max Scherzer, Corey Kluber, Sonny Gray, or Dallas Keuchel. In fact, Keuchel stuffed the White Sox on May 30 with a complete game, 11 strikeout shutout. The Sox are some kind of terrible against southpaws.

Rodon is a risky pick, but his wipeout slider (22 percent SwStr%) could lead to double digit strikeouts for $2,700 less than Keuchel. It might be a stretch to expect a win. For one, no pitcher is safe against the high variance Astros offense. Chicago will also struggle to gain any traction against Keuchel and the Astros bullpen. Rodon also has serious problems with free passes.

If you want something just a little more predictable, I expect good things from Anibal Sanchez against the Cubs. Same caveats as with the Astros – they can explode against any pitcher. Double digit strikeouts should be well within reach. Like Rodon, Sanchez’s matchup versus Jon Lester leaves something to be desired.

Stack Targets: Taylor Jungmann, Mark Buehrle, Mike Foltynewicz, Trevor May, Jorge de la Rosa, Robbie Ray, Carlos Frias

3. Tomorrow’s Targets – Velazquez, Moscot, Castillo, Burns

Pitchers to Start: Now that Lance McCullers has settled into the Houston rotation, the club will call up another top pitching prospect – Vincent Velasquez. The righty possesses big swing-and-miss stuff. He posted a 1.37 ERA with 12.65 K/9 and 3.08 BB/9 over five Double-A starts. I wouldn’t anticipate a long outing from Velasquez, but it should include a very healthy strikeout rate.

He was Kiley McDaniel’s 75th ranked prospect prior to the season. Velazquez has been slowed by injuries throughout his minor league career. His repertoire consists of a low-90’s fastball, a plus changeup, and a curve.

Also consider: Wei-Yin Chen, Charlie Morton, Taijuan Walker, Erasmo Ramirez,

Pitchers to Exploit: Jon Moscot will make his second major league start against the lowly Phillies. Regarding Moscot’s future, Kiley McDaniel had this to say: “you’re hoping for a 5th starter, but would settle for a long man/spot starter/middle reliever.” He has a four pitch arsenal none of which are better than adequate. His most recent stint in the minors includes a 3.15 ERA, 5.63 K/9, and 3.15 BB/9 in nine starts. Those numbers are not particularly encouraging.

Also consider: Jerome Williams, Carlos Martinez, Chad Bettis, Rick Porcello, Kyle Lohse, Shane Greene, Jeremy Hellickson

Hitters (power): Rusney Castillo is hitting .245/.260/.306 on the season. Most of the owners who so patiently waited for him to be promoted have cut bait. He’s down to 44 percent ownership.

In his second spin through the majors, Castillo has shown shoddy plate discipline. Once he settles in, he should improve both his strikeout and walk rates. He also has more power than his .061 ISO indicates. Our projection systems expect him to be a league average hitter. I anticipate about 15 percent above average. The one thing to watch out for is injury – he’s already hit the skids with something like four minor injuries since signing last summer.

Also consider: Yasmany Tomas, Welington Castillo, Gerardo Parra, Jung-ho Kang, Mike Napoli, Travis Snider, Maikel Franco, Cody Asche

Hitters (speed): Burn Billy Burns. C’mon, Burn.

Also consider: Jake Marisnick, Adam Eaton, Odubel Herrera

4. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The Twins game could see a late interruption. The rest of the league should be fine.

The Link. Coors Field gets its own shade of green today.

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