The Daily Grind: Missed Opportunities

After a couple visible, low-owned players went bananas yesterday, we’re likely to see their ownership spike today. Guess what? Ya already missed the points!

AGENDA

1. 1. TDG Invitational
   2. Weather Reports
   3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
   4. SaberSim Says…
   5. Ditto

1.The Daily Grind Invitational

Johnson119 sailed to an easy victory on the backs of Didi Gregorius and Treat Urner. The Didi pick appeared on just two rosters. Congrats and Leaderboard.

It’s a split-action day with eight games leftover for our nightly contest. See ya on FantasyDraft. Bring a friend (seriously).

If you have not signed up for FantasyDraft, please use this referral link for tracking purposes. If I understand properly, by using the referral, you will receive a 10 percent return on any rakes you pay.

2. Weather Reports

All clear.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Early: FDraft is running a five game early slate. Other platforms have seven games. Since I don’t feel like visiting those other platforms, we’ll just take a quick peek at this fiver.

Justin Verlander ($23,400) is practically a must-play in a slate otherwise lacking certainty. His opponent, Chris Bassitt ($16,300) is overpriced for a pairing against the Astros. But not disastrously so. I might consider using both ends of this one – a tactic I consider increasingly viable as the slate thins.

Jon Gray ($18,000) is second on the price list. It’s a big drop from Verlander. This is the first half of a doubleheader. I’m sure the Rockies would love to squeeze seven innings out of Gray in order to save their terrible bullpen. Erick Fedde ($10,800) is a reasonable bargain target in a winnable matchup.

David Price flopped last week against the Orioles. This seems to be part of his pattern. Throw some gems. Explode. Rinse and repeat. The last time he faced the Rays, he recorded 10 strikeouts. He’ll run ya $17,500.

I’m surprised to see Lucas Sims with a $15,500 price tag. I was prepared to heavily tout his strikeout rate, but that was assuming a cost somewhere adjacent to Fedde. This is too much – especially at Miller Park. Even crappy Jhoulys Chacin ($12,100) is a better value.

The hidden pick (he’s literally not listed as starting) in this one is Charlie Morton ($20,600) who isn’t listed and has a challenging pairing with the Red Sox. Still, this is a very obvious contrarian must-play on FDraft GPPs since his ownership rate will be low compared to Verlander.

Favorite Plays: Verlander, Morton, Price, Fedde

Stack Targets: Jordan Zimmermann, Vince Velasquez, Fedde, Chacin, Sims, Bassitt

Late: And now the real slate. Patrick Corbin ($21,400) is rightly anointed the leader versus the sea level rockies. Watch out for lefty masher Nolan Arenado. Otherwise, all shall be fine. A clearer path to the win bonus simply is not possible.

Shane Bieber ($20,200) has a saucy strikeout rate. Market pressures (Blue Jays hitters are underpriced) could force some DFSers away from using him tonight. His rival, Marcus Stroman ($17,500) isn’t built for this game (by which I mean DFS, not baseball). Soft contact generators don’t rack up the points.

Noah Syndergaard ($19,500) should have an easy enough time with the Padres. They’re strikeout prone to right-handed pitchers. Dinelson Lamet ($16,100) costs way too much. One of these days, he’ll be priced in the $12,000 range, and I’ll be able to tout him.

Jake Odorizzi ($16,900) is appropriately priced against the Yankees. It’s dangerous but FDraft wants to convince you to give it a try with these prices. Then again, J.A. Happ is not dissimilar to Odorizzi, and he only costs $14,500.

It seems to me both sides of Adam Wainwright ($15,500) at Jordan Lyles ($12,100) are the exact sort of boring and affordable that frequently shows up as a second pitcher on winning rosters.

Julio Teheran ($15,300) gets a slight boost for hosting the Royals. Ross Stripling ($15,000) deserves a nudge for a promise of serious run support. Zac Gallen ($14,900) is a budget clone of Bieber. Reynaldo Lopez is occasionally not terrible. If that’s ever to be predictably true, it’ll be against the Marlins for $13,800.

Favorite Plays: Corbin, Bieber, Gallen

Stack Targets: Kyle Freeland, Lyles, Jaime Barria, Brad Keller, Lopez, Happ, Odorizzi

4. SaberSim Says…

Let’s just focus on the main slate. Corbin, Syndergaard, Gallen, Teheran, and Bieber lead the way. Unsurprisingly, given his ranking ahead of Bieber, Gallen is the top-projected value followed by Teheran, Lyles, Syndergaard, and Corbin. As is often the case this season, the Venn Diagram of “good” and “value” pitchers is almost a circle.

That’s not an issue on offense. Cody Bellinger, Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, Max Muncy, and Trea Turner are nowhere near the best bargains. Those are Humberto Arteaga, Jake Bauers, Robinson Cano, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Michael Conforto.

5. Ditto

You (and basically everyone else) already missed Cano’s big game.

Ditto Turner.

Here’s some historic footage circa 2011. Oh, this is current???