The Daily Grind: Maxwell, Eovaldi, Pearce

Agenda

1. Farnsworth on Maxwell
2. Daily DFS
3. Tomorrow’s Targets – Eovaldi, Foltynewicz, Pearce, Eaton
4. Factor Grid

1. Farnsworth on Maxwell

Justin Maxwell has been doing something like a poor man’s J.D. Martinez impression. It looked like he might be done last season after he posted a 13 wRC+ in 45 plate appearances. However, the Giants have found 93 plate appearances for him due to a couple outfield injuries.

He’s hitting a healthy .241/.304/.410 with three home runs and a steal. His career rates are roughly comparable. A combination of decent power and speed marks him as a viable deep mixed league asset – assuming he continues to play. Here’s what Dan had to say about him.

I’ve always liked a lot of aspects of Maxwell’s swing. He uses his lower half well, and he’s got a pretty good hand path. The only thing I could really pick apart is he can get a little too flat with his barrel over his shoulder as he starts his swing, making it sometimes get a little long and around the ball. I think that’s why him laying off low pitches was a good adjustment, as Karl de Vries pointed out the other week, since a flatter swing lends itself to driving balls better up in the zone.

I don’t see a big swing change or anything that makes him look different from previous years in any important way. I think it really just comes down to him swinging at less pitches out of the zone and making more contact in the zone. His strikeout rate being so low and his fly ball rate being so high is a good thing for somebody with his strength and athleticism.

With such a high fly ball rate, normally I would worry that he’s selling out to try to yank the ball out of the park, which may still be a concern. But the contact improvement makes me feel like he may finally be cashing in on some of the promise he had in his early years. We’ll see how he responds to pitchers refusing to throw him a ball up in the zone once the reports go around this year.

Maxwell still swings very frequently at pitches within the strike zone, but he’s been relatively patient outside the zone. His contact rates are well above his career averages, although they’re also below league average. At the end of the day, Maxwell is a flawed guy who could easily provide 20 HR+SB if he plays. Said playing time will depend upon more injuries.

2. Daily DFS

I often advise readers to target pitchers at pitcher friendly ballparks. You may not have that choice tonight. Two locations favor pitchers. Among those, only Alex Colome and Scott Kazmir look like viable candidates for a start.

Colome has been sharp since returning from the disabled list, but he’s only thrown five innings per start. Kazmir has a mid-3’s xFIP. He’s up against a theoretically dynamic offense. The Red Sox have a low 86 wRC+ against lefties, but most of that can be attributed to a .206 BABIP.

The most obvious pick this evening is Gerrit Cole. He’ll face the wimpy Phillies. Zack Greinke is another very high ceiling pick opposite the Marlins.

Stack Targets: Marco Estrada, Jerome Williams, CC Sabathia, Rick Porcello, Tom Koehler

3. Tomorrow’s Targets – Eovaldi, Foltynewicz, Pearce, Eaton

Pitchers to Start: Entering the season, there was hope that the Yankees could help Nathan Eovaldi turn the corner. The righty has always featured a hard fastball and mediocre results. When he learned a splitter during the spring, the narrative looked ready to click into place.

Instead, he’s looked like the same old Eovaldi. He’s experienced a bump in HR/FB – possibly a function of moving from Miami to New York. Otherwise, he’s a guy with a hard fastball that doesn’t flummox hitters. He’s still a useful stream option against certain opponents. Playing at Tropicana Field is one of those situations.

Also consider: Noah Syndergaard

Pitchers to Exploit: The Braves acquired Mike Foltynewicz as part of the Evan Gattis trade. Atlanta is trying to use him as a starter, but his repertoire is a limiting factor. The fastball is excellent at 96 mph. It occasionally reaches triple digits, especially in relief. He also throws a solid sinker, and his sinker shows promise. His favorite offspeed pitch is a lousy curve ball (at least based on the results).

I see him as a fastball-slider guy with ninth inning potential. As a starter, I expect many short outings. He strikes me as the kind of pitcher who could be inconsistent inning to inning. Great American Ballpark is very hitter friendly. I can imagine a four inning, four run performance.

Also consider: Mark Buehrle, Chris Tillman, Sean O’Sullivan, Mike Fiers, Kyle Kendrick, Justin Masterson, Drew Pomeranz, James Paxton

Hitters (power): Second baseman Steve Pearce (huh!?) and the Orioles will finally face a lefty – Mark Buehrle. The Jays starter is pitching through a minor injury, and it’s affecting his results. Pearce is off to a slow start, but he’s a career .278/.361/.504 against southpaws.

Also consider: Jung-ho Kang, Andre Ethier, Derek Norris, Justin Bour, Ike Davis, Mark Canha

Hitters (speed): The White Sox have stuck with Adam Eaton as their leadoff man against right-handed pitchers. Presumably, they expect his .235 BABIP to improve. He’s an extreme ground ball hitter against a fly ball pitcher, so we should see some firm contact. Projection systems still call for a solid .265/.340/.360 line.

Also consider: Drew Stubbs, Kevin Kiermaier

4. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Cincinnati is the only location at high risk of interruptive weather.

The Link. With the exceptions of Oakland and Tampa Bay, we have hitter friendly environs tonight.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.