The Daily Grind: Martinez, Chavez, Van Slyke

Agenda

1. Getting It Backwards
2. Daily DFS – Martinez
3. GB / FB Splits
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Chavez, Lyons, Van Slyke, Davis
5. Factor Grid

1. Getting It Backwards

Yesterday, I recommended Chase Whitley and not-so-subtly implied that you should avoid or even exploit Drew Hutchison. Whitley fessed up to an ongoing elbow issue after scuffling through 1.2 innings. There was no indicator of the injury in the media or his statistics. I think that excuses my selection. If you took my advice regarding Whitley, know that my DFS and fantasy teams suffered too.

Hutchison’s performance was deliciously ironic…in a bad way for readers of the column. I lamented that the whiff rate on his fastball had declined this season. It was still above average, but he floated around elite levels in 2014. After yesterday’s six inning, nine punch out start, Hutchison is now close to his previous whiff rates. I probably should have mentioned the high variance Astros lineup.

Huchison still has a 6.17 ERA, and I worry about his difficult division. He throws the majority of his games in an extremely hitter friendly park. It will be difficult to find comfortable starts for him. As such, I won’t be buying low.

2. Daily DFS – Martinez

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: Much like the proverbial cheese, the Pirates and Cubs stand alone. Together. At 2:20 ET.

Late: That leaves 14 evening games. If I didn’t have evening plans, I would tune into the Tigers-Cardinals matchup. Carlos Martinez has a difficult job – stymie the Tigers offense. However, he’s among the top pitchers against right-handed hitters. Detroit typically fields two left-handed bats, and one of them is anemic Anthony Gose. The other is the shadow of Victor Martinez, and he’s currently limited to pinch hitting duties.

The Cardinals’ hurler has a 2.76 FIP against righties this season. Over his short career, he’s held them to a 2.32 FIP. St. Louis seems to quickly turn to their bullpen. Don’t expect more than six innings.

Alternatively, I can’t imagine Chase Anderson losing to Chad Billingsley and the Phillies. The Diamondbacks stack is attractive as a whole. Billingsley has looked terrible through two outings. Nobody is missing his stuff.

Stack Targets: Jered Weaver, Jason Marquis, Kyle Lohse, Bruce Chen, Odrisamer Despaigne

3. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

Jeff has selected 42 players today. Here are some of my favorites.

Kyle Blanks, Robinson Chirinos, and Carlos Corporan vs. Bruce Chen
Oswaldo Arcia vs. Jake Odorizzi
Adam Jones, Manny Machado, Alejandro De Aza, and Steve Pearce vs. Jered Weaver
Jose Bautista vs. Dallas Keuchel
Jayson Werth vs. Odrisamer Despaigne
Garrett Jones, Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez, and Chase Headley vs. Chris Young
Asdrubal Cabrera, David DeJesus, and James Loney vs. Phil Hughes
Chris Iannetta, Mike Trout, and Albert Pujols vs. Wei-Yin Chen

4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Chavez, Lyons, Van Slyke, Davis

Pitchers to Start: Today’s pitchers generally fall into one of two categories: owned or terrible. Existing in space between is Jesse Chavez. His velocity is up to 93 mph and his whiff rate is a tidy 11 percent with a 24.8 percent strikeout rate. He’s continued to control the strike zone too. You’ll find him opposed by the White Sox at pitcher friendly O.Co Coliseum.

Below, I mentioned two names to also consider. Don’t. They’re both desperation plays.

Also consider: Colby Lewis, Archie Bradley

Pitchers to Exploit: Tyler Lyons is a respectable pitcher. He doesn’t last deep into games, and he lacks any standout skill. Unfortunately, he draws the Tigers’ right-handed juggernaut. Over his career, righties have hit .257/.321/.449. Expect the Detroit attack to make some noise.

If suddenly homer prone Matt Shoemaker wasn’t pitching at Camden Yards, he would be my top pitcher to start. Alas, he is pitching at Camden Yards. I fear for his soul.

Also consider: Alex Colome, Trevor May, Shoemaker, Bud Norris, Jerome Williams, CC Sabathia, Ryan Vogelsong, Scott Feldman, John Danks, Jorge de la Rosa

Hitters (power): I swear the Dodgers have faced two lefties all season. They’ll see de la Rosa tomorrow which means it’s Dio de los Scott Van Slyke. He’s a career .270/.369/.521 hitter against southpaws. Interestingly, he doesn’t have terrible platoon splits. He’s a .795 OPS hitter against righties. However, he needs the help of a .361 BABIP against same-handed pitchers. Still, he looks like an every day guy to me.

Also consider: Justin Turner, Alex Guerrero, Seth Smith, Mark Canha, Chris Young, David Peralta, Matt Joyce, Travis Snider

Hitters (speed): Rajai Davis is a top 75 player when facing left-handed pitching. Go grab him. He offers multi-hit ability, speed, and decent extra base power from the leadoff spot.

Also consider: Coco Crisp, Ender Inciarte, Odubel Herrera, De Aza, Jose Iglesias

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

You’ll notice a couple possible rain conflicts. Keep an eye on them.

The Link. TABLE NOTES

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