- Farnsworth on Marisnick
- Daily DFS – Martinez
- GB / FB Splits
- Tomorrow’s Targets – Karns, Gonzalez, Uggla, Stubbs
- Factor Grid
1. Farnsworth on Marisnick
We’re through about a month of baseball, and one of the top breakout talents is Jake Marisnick. One month can produce misleading numbers. Just look at Domonic Brown. He was the best player in baseball during May of 2013. He’s been below average in nearly all of his time in the majors.
Is Marisnick a stud or a Brown? I asked Dan to chime in with his thoughts:
Marisnick seems to have really improved his contact skills this year. Although he probably won’t keep up his high line drive rate the whole year, he’s got enough strength to keep hitting singles and doubles. He can get really steep to the ball, which will lend to a lower trajectory off the bat on average, so 10-15 homers is probably all I would expect from him. If the contact and chase rates continue to stay the same or improve, he may be able to replicate his Triple-A season last year in the big leagues.
Conservatively I’d count on him being a .260-.270 hitter with low teens pop, which combined with the stolen base threat he is a pretty impressive dude. The only thing that will limit him is his plate discipline, especially if this is just him seeing the ball well rather than a true change in approach/skillset.
His Triple-A performance included 10 home runs, 24 stolen bases, and a .277/.326/.424 line in 377 plate appearances. That rate of production would qualify him as a borderline top 25 hitter. Marisnick is off the waiver wire in most leagues. He’s an excellent trade target for stolen bases.
2. Daily DFS – Martinez
Early: Location, location, location. So goes the popular saying about real estate. It’s also a good phrase for the afternoon contest. With five games available, you’ll want to target hitters at U.S. Cellular Field or Miller Park. Both stadiums are homer havens and will experience excellent weather today.
You’ll probably go to Missouri for a pitcher today. Jake Arrieta, Corey Kluber, Edinson Volquez, and even John Lackey are all viable plays. Due to the likelihood of rain in Minnesota, they’re probably the only viable plays.
Late: Nick Martinez has a shiny 0.84 ERA. He also possesses a 3.45 FIP and 4.73 xFIP. Projection systems peg him for something between a 4.79 and 5.14 ERA over the rest of the season. He doesn’t have anything to sneak past hitters as evidenced by his 9.9 percent strikeout rate. To make a short story shorter, don’t feel like you have to avoid the flashy ERA tonight. The stadium (Tropicana Field) is a bigger deterrent than the pitcher.
3. GB / FB Splits
The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.
Jeff trumped up 28 names for today. As usual, here are some of my favorites starting with a Yankees stack.
Garrett Jones, Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, and Chase Headley vs. Chris Tillman
Asdrubal Cabrera and David DeJesus vs. Nick Martinez
Jake Marisnick, Hank Conger, Evan Gattis, and Robbie Grossman vs. Hector Santiago
Howie Kendrick and Andre Ethier vs. Mike Fiers
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Karns, Gonzalez, Uggla, Stubbs
Pitchers to Start: “Ugh” is a good word to describe tomorrow’s potential stream starters. At the top of the discard pile is Nate Karns, a guy I usually aim to exploit. If you’re absolutely desperate for innings, Karns will pitch at the Trop against a mostly hapless Rangers lineup. That said, Karns is a swingman quality starter with no other redeeming qualities for fantasy owners. Proceed with caution.
Also consider: Jarred Cosart
Pitchers to Exploit: Perhaps you could even consider using Miguel Gonzalez at Yankee Stadium. It all comes back to that thing I was saying about locations. Gonzalez is a fly ball pitcher, the Yankees possess a fly ball mashing offense, and the game is at Yankee Stadium. I assume New York will bring the pain.
Hitters (power): I already used “ugh,” didn’t I? Well, it’s my pleasure to present to you Dan Uggla. Forgot about this guy, huh?
His .192/.263/.365 line looks like more of the same from Uggla, but there are hints of improvement under the hood. His whiff and strikeout rates have dropped precipitously from horrific to merely bad. And while it’s a tiny sample, he appears to be spraying the ball to all fields. Perhaps we can finally expect a normal-ish BABIP? Even if you don’t buy the rebound narrative, he’s up against an easy lefty in Stults.
Hitters (speed): As one commenter noted; Drew Stubbs: 1, SSS: 0. Although Stubbs did pop a home run yesterday, it wasn’t during his start against Robbie Ray. He’s still at a miserable .071/.161/.286 on the season. Both of his hits (in 32 plate appearances) have gone over the wall. His strikeout rate remains above 50 percent. There are red flags present, but I’ll still give him a try against Anderson.
5. The Factor Grid
The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.
Games in Minnesota and Los Angeles are the most likely to be affected by rain.
The Link. The early games have great home run conditions, especially U.S. Cellular Field.
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