The Daily Grind: L/R Splits, Happ, Chi Chi

Agenda

  1. Lefty/Righty Team Splits Update
  2. Daily DFS – Early Offense, Late Shrug
  3. GB / FB Splits
  4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Happ, Chi Chi, Young, DeJesus
  5. Factor Grid

1. Lefty/Righty Team Splits Update

There was a draft, but I don’t really have anything to say about that as it relates to fantasy baseball. There was a no-hitter, but it was only Chris Heston. Guys like Phil Humber and Bud Smith threw no-hitters too. In lieu of current events, let’s recap the best teams against lefty and righty pitching.

First, the lefty mashers. The list starts with the Blue Jays and their 141 wRC+ against southpaws. The only surprise here is the distance between Toronto and the second place Tigers (121 wRC+). The Mariners, Marlins, and Royals also possess a wRC+ above 110.

The league average wRC+ in any split is 100 (there is some rounding error). For teams to dominate like the Blue Jays, other clubs have to show utter futility. That’s what we have with the White Sox and their 42 wRC+. The Brewers lineup has a history of lefty mashing, but they’re at a pitiful 63 wRC+. The Braves and Rockies are also more than 25 percent below league average.

One observation that may or may not mean anything – there is more parity against right-handed pitching. The Dodgers lead the way with a 124 wRC+. Shockingly, the Giants are second best with a 112 wRC+. The Athletics, Indians, Blue Jays, and Yankees are all more than five percent above average versus northpaws.

Among the laggards, you’ll find the Phillies with a 70 wRC+. Most of the Phillies best hitters are left-handed, yet the team has a 98 wRC+ against lefties. It doesn’t make much sense. Now is probably a good time to point out that the sample sizes involved are still wonky. Six other teams are worse than 10 percent below league average. The Marlins, Brewers, Twins, and Mets are the worst of them. Like the Phillies, most of the Mets best hitters are left-handed…

2. Daily DFS – Early Offense, Late Shrug

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: The four early games are in four overwhelming offense friendly environments. The weather is fantastic for home run power. Expect some bombs. Unfortunately, FanDuel doesn’t include the Rockies game in the early slate.

My instinct was to look for a pitcher with a low HR/9. Alas, your options amount to Gio Gonzalez at Yankee Stadium or a bunch of crap. Seriously, Nathan Eovaldi is the best of the rest while Tom Koehler, Jon Moscot, Jerome Williams, and Scott Copeland are no-brainer exploits.

Late: That leaves 11 for the late contest. None of the pitchers are a layup, not even Matt Harvey. For one, his damned offense couldn’t even muster a hit against Heston last night. There’s no guarantee they’ll produce against Tim Hudson. Jake Arrieta is probably the most likely to earn a win, but he still has to stifle the Tigers offense. Don’t be afraid to grab a mediocre starter at a pitcher friendly park today. PNC Park, Target Field, Tropicana Field, and the Coliseum are the best locations.

Stack Targets: Brett Anderson, Jeremy Hellickson, Jose Quintana, Jered Weaver, Taijuan Walker, Shane Greene, Kyle Lohse, Wei-Yin Chen, Rick Porcello

3. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

Jeff is back with a couple dozen split picks. My favorites you ask? See below.

David DeJesus and Asdrubal Cabrera vs. Jered Weaver
A.J. Pollock vs. Brett Anderson
Carlos Gomez vs. Charlie Morton
Prince Fielder vs. Jesse Hahn
Billy Hamilton, Todd Frazier, and Brandon Phillips vs. Jerome Williams
Matt Wieters vs. Rick Porcello
Josh Reddick vs. Yovani Gallardo
Kyle Seager vs. Trevor Bauer

4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Happ, Chi Chi, Young, DeJesus

Pitchers to StartJ.A. Happ used to believe in strategic walks. It looks like he’s now a sabr adherent with a career best 1.93 BB/9. Happ’s always possessed great control so it’s nice to see his command reach the next level. His stuff isn’t fantastic, but he’s become a reliable mid-rotation guy. A matchup against the Indians isn’t as friendly for southpaws as it was last year. Don’t ask me why, I’m as baffled as the next guy.

Also consider: Alex Colome

Pitchers to Exploit: Chi Chi Gonzalez has allowed zero runs through his first 14.2 innings. However, he also has a 5.14 xFIP thanks to 2.45 K/9, 4.30 BB/9, a .116 BABIP, and no home runs allowed. When will the regression monster bite?

Also consider: Shaun Marcum, Wade Miley, Chris Tillman, Jon Niese, Chris Rusin, David Phelps, Michael Lorenzen

Hitters (power): Delmon Young is still a thing against left-handed pitching like Miley. He’s hitting .349/.364/.372 versus southpaws this year. I usually see him batting second or fourth.

Also consider: Gerardo Parra, Jeff Baker, Justin Maxwell, Steve Pearce, Max Muncy, Giovanny Urshela, Ryan Raburn, Mike Aviles

Hitters (speed): David DeJesus is quietly in the midst of a rebound season. He’s hitting a BABIP buoyed .313/.367/.470. The Rays have hidden him from southpaws (just four plate appearances). It’s also been a long time since he’s stolen more than 10 bases in a season. If you actually need stolen bases, your option is Billy Burns and only Billy Burns.

Also consider: Kevin Kiermaier, Billy Burns

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Scattered storms could affect four games. See the grid and check reports closer to game time.

The Link.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment. 





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asaw780
8 years ago

Really agonizing over whether to start Porcello @ BAL or Eovaldi vs. WAS. Can only pick one. Any opinions?