The Daily Grind: Liriano, May, Desclafani

Agenda

1. Windows 10
2. Reconstructing
3. Daily DFS – Liriano, May
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – DeSclafani, Greene, Forsythe, Marisnick
5. Factor Grid

1. Windows 10

I have a non-baseball bullet today (don’t worry, there’s some good stuff below). Apparently Windows 10 is free until sometime around next July. Conspicuous in its absence is Windows 9 – the seemingly obvious successor to Windows 8.

In any case, who has opinions about Windows 10? In terms of features and functionality, I’m completely in the dark. I’d like to learn more. Should I upgrade my comfortable Windows 7 experience? Microsoft says no backsies once you upgrade (there are ways around that).

What I do know is that I absolutely hate, hate, hate Microsoft’s Software as a Service (SaaS) vision. For those unfamiliar with the jargon, SaaS generally reduces user ownership of their software AND costs more money. How does that make economic sense? The same way those sad animal commercials get you with the “for just $1 a day” line. A dollar a day is $365 a year. I pay less than half of that to the state of North Carolina on tax day. Eesh.

I used to sell enterprise reporting software. Our customers demanded that we create a SaaS pricing option. The model we developed was a complete crap. I mean, real steaming bullshit. You could A). own your licenses outright by paying more up front or B). pay monthly without ever owning the license. The break even point was 2.5 years. The average life of reporting software is somewhere around five  to eight years depending on the industry. And here’s the kicker, we’d renegotiate SaaS pricing after two or three years (depending on the contract).

Companies like SaaS because it solves a cash flow issue. Really, mid-level managers like SaaS. An upper level executive should be smarter. Should. Individuals should rebel against the concept. It’s a never ending money pit, and you never truly own anything.

2. Reconstructing

I’m in the midst of a cold streak. Since the middle of May, my only winning day was this past Monday. Over the period, I spent $161 and won just $57.45. Losing $100 hurts, especially when you’re a writer.

To combat my slump, I’m going to try a new approach that I’m calling constructive second guessing. In April, I ratcheted down my investment from around $50 a night to $14. I’m using a single lineup in about five tournaments (GPPs). So let’s take a look at that lineup and how it could have been tweaked to make money. Here’s yesterday’s roster.

I’ll try to be pragmatic in the analysis. This isn’t about going back and looking at the best/lucky players of the evening. I want to evaluate alternatives I considered prior to game time. If Jace Peterson has a 12 point night against Clayton Kershaw, I won’t be kicking myself for taking a pass.

Last night was all about the pitcher. I thought the Dodgers and Cubs would go nuts offensively, so I was only seeking about 10 points from a cheap pitcher. I selected Mike Wright against the Astros, knowing it was a risky pick.

My favorite pitcher of the evening, Chris Archer, reached 26 points. Had I just reached for him and replaced Kris Bryant and Dexter Fowler with any cheaper options, I would have made some substantial money. Or, I could have rostered Clay Buchholz (I very nearly did) and his 20 points. In that event, I would have only dropped Bryant. I might have mistakenly upgraded Logan Forsythe, but I went with him because he was hitting cleanup.

Maybe this is a case of good process, bad result. Who could have anticipated Brad Hand holding Bryant scoreless? Well, lots of people. Good hitters fail against bad pitchers all the time. A 12 point evening from Bryant would have made me some money, and it was not out of the question.

3. Daily DFS – Liriano, May

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: There are five early games. The biggest pitcher on the board is Francisco Liriano. You might note the Giants hot hitting against left-handed pitching and immediately dismiss Liriano – even at AT&T Park. However, the development of a nasty changeup has allowed him to post hefty reverse platoon splits since the start of last season. I usually laugh when people cite reverse splits – they’re almost always pure fluke. Good changeups are one of the few counterexamples.

None of the early pitchers are particularly good or bad. In fact, I see nary an obvious stack.

Late: And because of the Boston doubleheader, we have 11 late games. The aces come with fatal flaws – at least when you consider the opportunity cost of rostering them. Corey Kluber has to battle the Royals pesky lineup. Chris Sale is at hitter friendly Globe Life Park. The Rangers offense is one of the best against southpaws. Cole Hamels has to disassemble the Reds solid offense (against lefties at least) without allowing home runs. Sonny Gray doesn’t quite fit in this group in my opinion. I know others think he’s a legit ace. I see him as a number two. In any case, he’s opposed by the Tigers juggernaut.

I’m almost tempted…no screw that I am tempted by Trevor May against the Red Sox. The Twins righty struggles with command and control. Oddly, he has just 1.63 BB/9 this season. Unfortunately, that just means he’s constrained his meager command within the strike zone. His 5.07 ERA is belied by a 3.84 xFIP. He might simply be a high BABIP pitcher. I’m hoping the Red Sox are fatigued by the time the second game rolls around. He’s opposed by Rick Porcello. If he pitches well, he should win.

May smells an awful lot like my Wright pick yesterday. Have I learned nothing? Perhaps not. After all, N=1 is not a useful sample.

Stack Targets: Hector Santiago, Dillon Gee, Miguel Gonzalez, Jason Vargas, Chad Bettis, Taylor Jordan, Mark Buehrle

4. Tomorrow’s Targets – DeSclafani, Greene, Forsythe, Marisnick

Pitchers to Start: I keep rostering Anthony DeSclafani. Nobody will trade anything for him, not even Tony Watson in a non-holds league. Yet he’s continually the best pitcher on the waiver wire. Whenever I cut him, he quickly finds his way back onto my roster. There is a reason – he’s unexciting. It’s hard to see upside in a workman with 6.36 K/9 and 3.88 BB/9. I anticipate sharp improvement in his walk rate over the rest of the season. Using him tomorrow has nothing to do with expecting better results. He’s up against the pitiful Phillies offense.

Also consider: Steven Wright, Carlos Rodon, Yovani Gallardo

Pitchers to Exploit: In his last start, Shane Greene allowed a confidence shaking five home runs in 1.2 innings. My ottoneu team suffered an ignominious -65 point outing. Greene is still a solid pitcher. However, that kind of outing could signal a much bigger problem.

Also consider: Wei-Yin Chen, Jeremy Hellickson, Roenis Elias

Hitters (power): Forsythe now bats cleanup against left-handed pitchers. The Rays also happen to be quite good versus southpaws. They’ll face a decent one in Elias. Forsythe is worth owning in many leagues. His strong contact rate is finally yielding an equally useful strikeout rate. I don’t buy the power outburst, but he should offer something like .280/.350/.410 over the rest of the season.

Also consider: Seth Smith, David Murphy, Cody Asche, Rusney Castillo, Mike Napoli

Hitters (speed): After swiping nine bases through May 1, Marisnick has just one stolen base in the last month. He’s had fewer opportunities because he isn’t reaching base as frequently. He’ll have the platoon advantage against Chen. Nothing too exciting here. I thought Marisnick could be a breakout guy, but he’s settled in as a league average guy. Even that leans on a .350 BABIP.

Also consider: Juan Lagares, Adam Eaton, Odubel Herrera, Billy Burns, Anthony Gose

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The Coors game has a risk of storms. I for one am hoping they hit and take 40 percent the field with them. Honestly, I doubt they’ll produce a rainout.

The Link.

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