The Daily Grind: La Bamba

Yo no soy marinero, soy capitan.


  1. TDG Invitational
  2. Weather Reports
  3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
  4. SaberSim Says…
  5. La Bamba

1.The Daily Grind Invitational

Congrats to mmddyyyy for another contest takedown. He’s surged to the top of the Leaderboard with three first place finishes in the last week. This time, everybody but Tyler Flowers supplied double-digit production. Personally, I spiked the pitching (Quintana, Gray) and little else.

I need you to pay attention – tonight’s contest starts at 6:35pm ET. It’s a 10-game slate. See you there on FantasyDraft.

If you have not signed up for FantasyDraft, please use this referral link for tracking purposes. If I understand properly, by using the referral, you will receive a 10 percent return on any rakes you pay.

2. Weather Reports

The Jays-Twins game looks like a wash, although there’s a small chance they’ll wait through a roughly three-hour delay for a late start.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

The 14 games to be played today have been chopped all to hell. Four are in the afternoon, three are in that slightly-before-7:00pm wasted space, and seven are late. We’ll focus on the main evening slate which includes the 6:35pm start times.

Evening: It feels weird to see Cole Hamels ($18,000) atop the price list. It feels even weirder to nod and say, “yea, that’s right.” The southpaw is a stable core performer visiting a noodle-batted opponent. The Marlins offense has few threats, and the venue will help Hamels avoid a case of homeritis. By comparison, Sandy Alcantara ($14,900) is max volatility. Consider using him if you’re trying to fade a chalky Hamels.

The other premium arm in the pool is Carlos Carrasco ($17,600). Through three starts, he’s posted point totals of -0.85, 30.45, and -12.70. Uh? I think, probably, opponents will not maintain a 61.8 percent hard contact rate. I’m going to call this small sample shenanigans. Carrasco is visiting an unexpectedly thumpant* Mariners offense.

*thumpant: having or possessing an excess of thump.

Trevor Williams ($16,100) is visiting Spencer Turnbull ($16,300) is a battle of weak offenses at Comerica Park. I’ll take Williams’ command if forced to choose. Both sides of the equation figure to offer easy value on affordable price tags – Williams via a six inning outing and Turnbull via a strikeout per inning.

Frankie Montas has the difficult task of taming the Astros lineup. For just $13,500, I think the difficulty of the matchup has been appropriately priced in. His new splitter is flummoxing opponents. He’s already managed one 11.25 point outing against the Astros. All he needs is to repeat AND receive some run support. The Athletics do have some hitters who match up well against Wade Miley ($12,700) although he shoved against them 10 days ago.

Last week, the Ryne Stanek opener turned into a split-follow by Ryan Yarbrough and Yonny Chirinos. It’s not at all clear which of the pair will be the primary follower today, nor do we have any inkling as to how long they’ll work. For the strategy to be sustainable, they probably need four innings from at least one of them. Through three starts, the opener-follower has not been effective. I don’t see this as a DFS-able play tonight.

Favorite Plays: Hamels, Carrasco, Williams

Stack Targets: Erik Swanson, David Hess, Matt Harvey, Lance Lynn, Jeremy Hellickson, Nathan Eovaldi

I think Eovaldi is fine in most senses of the word. But a visit to Yankee Stadium is not the right time to bet on a rebound. I usually bet on any pitcher against the Giants, but I think they’ll thump Hellickson. Despite taming the Phillies offense, his stuff looks terrible.

4. SaberSim Says…

Hamels, Carrasco, Swanson????, Gausman, and Turnbull are the top rated pitchers for this evening. Don’t ask why Swanson is so highly rated. I assume it has to do with a reliever projection getting spread over a 5.54 IP projection. Anyway, he’s also the preferred bargain along with Hamels, Carrasco, Gausman, and Jake Odorizzi (Turnbull is fifth if we assume Minnesota is a rainout). Hey! That’s basically the same list.

On the hitting side, Mike Trout, Joey Gallo, Austin Meadows, J.D. Martinez, and Ronald Acuna are the kings of the day. Values include Danny Santana, Ji-Man Choi, Kole Calhoun, Brandon Belt, and Buster Posey. Glad to see the machine agrees with me about Hellickson.

5. La Bamba

Para bailar La Bamba!


Did you know using a cutoff man is faster than throwing it directly to the plate. Also did you know C.J. Cron is slow af.

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3 years ago

Goodrum v. Williams or Frazier v. Turnbull today? thx!