The Daily Grind: Kershaw, Nola, Anderson, Lowrie


  1. Programming Note
  2. Daily DFS
  3. GB / FB Splits
  4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Anderson, Chacin, Lowrie, Mercer
  5. Factor Grid

1. Programming Note

We’ll be back to normal coverage tomorrow. Today will be rapid fire due to an early morning consultation with a dog oncologist. Don’t worry though. At the moment, the pup is healthy, happy, and fully recovered from his previous belly surgery.

Jeff is also taking a break. Do check the comments later today, it’s possible he’ll post the raw output later.

2. Daily DFS – Kershaw, Nola

All 13 games are part of the main contest today. Clayton Kershaw is king. SaberSim is hilariously confident with a 17.47 FanDuel point projection for Kershaw. He is up against the Rockies at Dodgers Stadium. Colorado is the worst team against left-handed pitching (64 wRC+). They’re also the worst team on the road (77 wRC+). Kershaw should breeze through this one.

The next tier of choices includes Jordan Zimmermann, Cole Hamels, Carlos Carrasco, Sonny Gray, Scott Kazmir, and James Shields. They should all do well, but they aren’t much cheaper than Kershaw.

None of the cheap pitchers are trustworthy today, but Aaron Nola has demonstrated solid stuff. He’s against a Nationals team that has suffered a seemingly impossible defeat in the NL East. They may be demoralized. The matchup is difficult, but Nola shouldn’t be viewed as an automatic loss. SaberSim projects him for just 25 percent of a win at home today with Zimmermann projected for over 50 percent of that win. I give them an even toss (roughly 40 percent each). As such, Nola at $6,500 is viable.

Stack Targets: Justin Nicolino, Logan Verrett, CC Sabathia, Erasmo Ramirez, John Danks, Kyle Lobstein, Keyvius Sampson, Tim Hudson

3. Tomorrow’s Targets – Kershaw, Chacin, Lowrie, Mercer

Pitchers to Start: Like Kershaw today, Brett Anderson will face a Rockies lineup that can’t hit lefties. There is some risk to the matchup. Anderson, like Buehrle below, is the sort of pitcher who can succeed or struggle against any offense. The Dodgers bullpen should be well rested if they’re needed early. I’m still expecting a quality start at the very least.

Also consider: J.A. Happ, Mark Buehrle, Chris Heston

Pitchers to Exploit: Jhoulys Chacin has pitched well in two starts, but that’s no reason to stop targeting him. He looks like the same pitcher who has failed in the majors over the last few seasons. His 88 mph fastball/sinker duo has now been supplemented with a 85 mph cutter. The six-pitch repertoire may flummox guess hitters, but they’re in the minority. The Padres should hit well tomorrow.

Also consider: David Buchanan, Martin Perez, Aaron Brooks, Ariel Pena, Alfredo Simon, Chris Rusin, John Lamb

Hitters (power): Jed Lowrie was hot, then he was injured, then he was cold. Now he’s hot again with a .293/.326/.683 line and four home runs in his last 10 starts (plus two successful pinch hit appearances). The switch-hitter should match up well at Globe Life Park against Perez.

Also consider: Marlon Byrd, Scott Van Slyke, Justin Turner, Dustin Garneau, Wilin Rosario, Seth Smith, Jedd Gyorko, Aaron Hicks, Eddie Rosario, Stephen Piscotty, Brandon Moss, John Jaso, Michael Conforto, Clint Robinson

Hitters (speed): If the Pirates are thinking ahead, they’ll play their best base runners in the second game of tomorrow’s doubleheader. Free stolen bases are to be had with Jon Lester on the hill. Jordy Mercer is probably the most interesting of the very few available Pirates.

Also consider: Ketel Marte, Josh Harrison, Danny Espinosa

4. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

It looks like a dry day to me.

The Link.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment. 

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Good to hear the good news about the pup, Brad.

I wanted to get your thoughts on two things, if you get a chance. First is Rich Hill. He was a top-5 option on Saber Sim yesterday despite the fact that, like you mention a lot, the Rays hit lefties pretty well. He seemed to have the decent numbers at AAA and the Trop is a decent pitcher’s park, but is there anything else to Saber Sim being so spot-on about him in that game?

Second is Josh Reddick. He was one of the, if not the top option(can’t remember for certain) in his Friday matchup against Colby Lewis according to Saber Sim. I was kind of thrown by this given what I’ve learned about GB/FB stats– Reddick is a FB hitter and typically hits GB pitchers well(looking at B-Ref data) and Lewis is about as FB-oriented as they come.

Basically, just trying to reverse-engineer Saber Sim a bit.