The Daily Grind: Keeper Nonsense, Sanchez, Hutch, Ethier

Agenda

1. A Quick Programming Note
2. Keeper Values
3. Daily DFS – Sanchez, Fiers, Hutchison
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Anderson, Holmberg, Ethier, Peterson
5. Factor Grid

1. A Quick Programming Note

Jeff Zimmerman is on vacation. The result is that the column will lack GB/FB splits until at least next Monday. Daily readers probably already have a sense of who does and doesn’t hit well against GB/FB guys.

Oh, the Factor Grid is back. Enjoy.

2. A Keeper League Problem

Yesterday I received perhaps the most hilarious trade offer I’ve seen in memory. It was an unsolicited offer accompanied by the note “this will work for me.” In the offer, I would have parted with Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Abreu, and Carlos Carrasco for … … … Joc Pederson and a couple vacant roster spots. He generously offered to include Justin Bour if I wanted him.

There’s a reason he earnestly felt this was a reasonable offer – it’s a keeper league. Owners can keep five, and I believe costs increase by $2 per season. Pederson is a friendly $6. Encarnacion and Abreu are in the mid-$20s and Carrasco is $18.

The league also has a history of ridiculous offers for keepers. Specifically, a history of said offers being accepted. There is this idea that win now players are worthless if you aren’t in the playoff hunt. Therefore, many owners are willing to give up anything for one decent keeper.

Major League Baseball teams provide a counter-role model. Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija aren’t going to help their respective clubs reach the postseason (sure, there are some monetary implications). When the Reds trade Cueto, they’ll get meaningful prospects in return. Plural. They don’t need to include two other players like Cueto to get just one good player.

It’s a common misconception that fantasy owners out of the race have lost all leverage in trades. It’s an illusion. Self fulfilling prophecy. The obsession with prospects and young players has driven many owners to get younger at any cost. Often, these same prospect obsessed competitors never contend.

League history is a tough force to beat. If the top owners are used to landing three whales for one keepable tuna, they won’t take your reasonable offer. A form of collusion is required to solve the problem. You must educate your poorly performing rivals or else pay usurious prices.

Or you could just build a league structure where most owners receive some sort of prize. I’ve tested a few models, the concept works.

3. Daily DFS – Sanchez, Fiers, Hutchison

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: Four games are early. The top dog is Jake deGrom, but he’s predictably expensive ($10,800 on FanDuel). Instead, consider going with Anibal Sanchez or Mike Fiers. Sanchez is opposed by a mediocre Seattle offense. More importantly, the lefty-mashing Tigers will face J.A. Happ. A win is likely for Sanchez. Fiers also has a good shot at a win. The hot-hitting Brewers lead the league in runs scored this month. The performances of Gerardo Parra, Scooter Gennett, and Adam Lind are a big reason for the success. They’ll see righty Julio Teheran.

Late: It’s Clayton Kershaw night. He’s opposed by the Phillies. Cash game owners will find it hard to go with an alternative hurler. GPP owners are probably left with no choice. If you have to dig into the barrel, I recommend Drew Hutchison. A win is seemingly automatic with the Blue Jays offense. They’re opposed by John Danks. All Hutchison has to do is last five innings to supply eight to 10 points. There is upside for a lot more.

Stack Targets: Tommy Milone, Teheran, Happ, Jake Peavy, CC Sabathia, Michael Lorenzen, Rick Porcello, Dan Straily, Matt Harrison, Danks, Jeremy Guthrie, Matt Shoemaker, Chris Rusin, Adam Morgan

4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Anderson, Holmberg, Ethier, Peterson

Pitchers to Start: After three impressive starts, Cody Anderson has his biggest challenge yet – the explosive Houston Astros. Anderson has pitched at least 7.2 innings in all three outings. He’s demonstrated plus command, but there’s no reason to expect his .181 BABIP or 96 percent strand rate to hold steady. He’s due for the bitch slap of regression. On a positive note, he should improve his 3.80 K/9.

Also consider: Jesse Chavez

Pitchers to Exploit: David Holmberg is a warm body. This might be enough to satisfy his sexual partners, but it won’t deter the Marlins. Even with Giancarlo Stanton on the sidelines, Holmberg may struggle to survive the outing. He’s a low strikeout, fly ball pitcher with below average command.

Also consider: Mike Pelfrey, Kyle Kendrick, Severino Gonzalez

Hitters (power): People clearly remember the crappy Andre Ethier from recent seasons. The current iteration is closer to the classic version of Ethier. A cold June (.222 BABIP) has led to a mass sell-off. If you’re in a reasonably deep league, Ethier remains an excellent play for cheap, above average production. He’s opposed by Sev Gonzalez.

Also consider: Brandon Barnes, Nick Markakis, Martin Prado, Giovanny Urshela, Randal Grichuk, Kevin Kiermaier, David DeJesus

Hitters (speed): Jace Peterson is developing into a solid major league player. I expect him to continue to develop until he’s a three or four win player. He’ll never be much of a power hitter, but he oozes l’eau de Ben Zobrist. He’ll eventually parlay his solid plate discipline into better contact numbers. He’s not there yet, but he’ll eventually be a .270/.340/.380 hitter with multi-position eligibility and 15 stolen bases.

Also consider: Anthony Gose, Adam Eaton

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

There are quite a few rain risks tonight, but they’re liable to evolve closer to game time. Eyes open folks.

The Link.

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