The Daily Grind: Jimenez, Hand, Murphy

Agenda

1. MLBTR League
2. Daily DFS – Jimenez
3. GB / FB Splits
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Wright, Hand, Murphy, Gose
5. Factor Grid

1. MLBTR League

It hasn’t been my best season for traditional fantasy. I’ve added more teams, DFS, and writing commitments over the past three years. It’s clear to me that I’ve reached the threshold where my performance suffers.

I could be doing better in my MLBTR league if I was paying more attention. The league is mostly comprised of former and current MLBTR writers. While they aren’t technically fantasy writers, their baseball chops are more than sufficient to create a competitive league. I’m currently in sixth place, 16.5 points back from first.

The league is a challenge in scarcity – it’s a 12-team, two-catcher format with 6×6 scoring (OPS and holds). The three man bench with two disabled list spots produces some major issues, especially since we have a 1500 IP cap while squeezing out saves and holds. At one point, I had six disabled players who weren’t really cut-able – one more than the bench accommodates. I still have four until Travis d’Arnaud is activated.

My offense has scuffled. My injury stack forced me to forego a second catcher for most of the season. My other guy – Mike Zunino – is getting close to cut territory as Wellington Castillo eats into his playing time. I’m forced to wait for a rebound from guys like Troy Tulowitzki, Christian Yelich, and Mike Napoli. I also expected more out of Mookie Betts. While I’d love to pick up guys like Justin Turner or Jake Marisnick to add some productive depth, the pitching requirements draw my entire bench.

I currently have zero holds, and not for a lack of trying. I’ve rostered about 40 games of setup relievers. I have the second highest inning total, yet my team is 37 innings below pace. Based on my current roster, I plan to convert Archie Bradley, Anthony DeSclafani, and Eduardo Rodriguez into streaming spots. I desperately need holds without sacrificing starts.

Unfortunately, my offense is the weaker component of my team. I’m forced to hope for a surge in production from my hitters. My pitching staff can be more actively managed to milk more points.

2. Daily DFS – Jimenez

There is no shortage of top pitching today. Felix Hernandez is probably too expensive to roster against the Yankees. Clayton Kershaw is pitching at Coors Field – eww. Gerrit Cole looks awfully attractive. The Giants offense has performed well in recent weeks. Even so, Cole will benefit from the best pitcher park in baseball. Keep in mind, he usually pitches at the second best locale.

I suppose Ubaldo Jimenez is the bargain brand name of the day. The ground ball pitcher is on good behavior with 8.19 K/9, 2.44 BB/9, and a luck neutral 3.14 ERA (3.15 FIP, 3.18 xFIP). As we know, the Astros offer their fair share of strikeouts. They can also drop their share of crooked numbers. Jimenez is definitely a high risk, high reward pick.

Stack Targets: Jose Urena, Brett Oberholtzer, Kyle Kendrick, Ryan Vogelsong

3. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

Jeff has hand-queried 24 names for this evening. Below are my favorites.

Kole Calhoun, Albert Pujols, Mike Trout, and Matt Joyce vs. Alex Colome
Carlos Gomez vs. Jaime Garcia
Adam Jones, Manny Machado, and Steve Pearce vs. Brett Oberholtzer

4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Wright, Hand, Murphy, Gose

The Dodgers and Rockies have a doubleheader at Coors Field. Neither team has announced their second starters yet. Assume they are exploits.

Pitchers to Start: As we’ve already discussed, any matchup against the Astros is high risk, high reward. Orioles starter Mike Wright has shown a healthy fastball, although his whiff rate is unimpressive through three starts. He showed better strikeout stuff at Triple-A. He could knock down a handful of Astros given their propensity to strike out.

Also consider: Kyle Hendricks

Pitchers to Exploit: I watched Brad Hand’s last start against the Pirates. Even though he didn’t allow a run in five innings, he looked terrible. He threw numerous cock shots (the link is to a zone profile, not a dick pic) and clearly had no semblance of command or control. In short, he was effectively wild. The Cubs are certainly a hit-or-miss offense, but I expect them to tee off against Hand.

Also consider: Jorge de la Rosa, Marco Estrada, Sean O’Sullivan, Kendall Graveman, Rick Porcello, Colby Lewis, Jeremy Guthrie, CC Sabathia

Hitters (power): David Murphy is a sneaky good platoon bat. He’s hitting a robust .324/.363/.457 on the season without looking particularly lucky. His .330 BABIP is due for regression (he has a low line drive rate), but he’s also improved his contact rates. Guthrie hasn’t looked like a major league pitcher this season.

Also consider: Rickie Weeks, Justin Ruggiano, Brandon Guyer, Nick Markakis, Justin Turner, Alex Guerrero, Andre Ethier, David Ross

Hitters (speed): None of the speed guys are particularly exciting today. If Anthony Gose leads off, he’ll be of some interest. The A’s are calling upon Graveman who is coming off two straight decent starts. There isn’t much to Graveman’s repertoire so I expect the Tigers to hammer him. Gose could score some runs in the process.

Also consider: Nori Aoki, Angel Pagan, Juan Lagares, Michael Bourn, Adam Eaton

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The games in Washington D.C. and Boston are rainouts in the making. Don’t buy in.

The Link. It’s pretty clear where you should go for offense tonight. If the three green parks aren’t doing it for you, try Miami.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.