The Daily Grind: Jim Abbott, Chen, Velasquez, Steve Holt!

Agenda

1. Jim Abbott GIF
2. Daily DFS – Chen
3. Tomorrow’s Targets – Velasquez, Teheran, Blanks, Holt
4. Factor Grid

1. Jim Abbott GIF

Here we have Jim Abbott completing his no-hitter. The mustachioed man at the plate is Carlos Baerga. Happy Monday.

2. Daily DFS – Chen

It’s a day of few aces. Jake Arrieta has a tough matchup with Cleveland. Dallas Keuchel has it easier against Colorado (in Houston). Most excitingly, Francisco Liriano will ply his left-handedness against the White Sox (47 wRC+ vs. LHP).

None of the true bargain pitchers are a good play this evening, but you have choices in the $7,000-$8,000 range on FanDuel. Carlos Rodon, Taijuan Walker, Noah Syndergaard are all young, high upside guys. Syndergaard is perhaps the most reliable, but he has the worst matchup (Toronto).

Personally, I like Wei-Yin Chen the most. Even though the game will be played at power happy Camden Yards, the lefty should neutralize Ryan Howard and the ghost of Chase Utley. Outside of Maikel Franco and occasional output from Jeff Francoeur, the rest of the Phillies lineup should be a breeze. I’m looking for seven or eight innings, three to five strikeouts, two runs allowed, and a win. That’s 12 to 15 points for $7,400.

Stack Targets: Robbie Ray, Jered Weaver, Kyle Lohse, Tom Koehler, Jon Moscot, Aaron Harang

3. Tomorrow’s Targets – Velasquez, Teheran, Blanks, Holt

Pitchers to Start: Vincent Velasquez’s debut was successful in that he allowed no runs and three hits through five innings. Unfortunately, he was rather inefficient. He walked four batters with five strikeouts. He has a history of much better walk rates so I’m not yet concerned. Even with Troy Tulowitzki hitting well, the Rockies lineup isn’t terribly scary outside of Coors Field.

Also consider: J.A. Happ, Brett Anderson

Pitchers to Exploit: It might be weird to see Julio Teheran as a potential exploit, especially against an underperforming offense like the Red Sox. His command has taken a step backwards this season which may explain his 17.3 percent HR/FB ratio. Even with the elevated homer rate, he still has a 4.23 ERA.

Teheran has held right-handed hitters to a .316 wOBA. With the Green Monster in play, more home runs and doubles could be a thorn in his side tomorrow.

Also consider: Chris Rusin, Wade Miley, Jerome Williams, Chris Tillman, Scott Copeland, Kyle Ryan, Michael Lorenzen, Chi Chi Gonzalez

Hitters (power): Kyle Blanks will face ground ball specialist Brett Anderson. You may recall seeing a GB/FB split in some (most) of these columns. When he’s right, Blanks is a fly ball hitter. With a sky high strikeout rate, he’s an all-or-nothing play. A home run is quite possible.

Also consider: Derek Norris, Justin Maxwell, Brad Miller, Andrelton Simmons, Juan Uribe, Jonny Gomes, Travis Snider, Jung-ho Kang, Mike Aviles, Giovanny Urshela

Hitters (speed): Brock Holt is playing most days against right-handed pitchers. With Pablo Sandoval, Xander Bogaerts, and now Mike Napoli supplying playing time to Holt, he should continue to receive reps. His current .292/.386/.403 line is buoyed by a .373 BABIP, but that’s supported by a ridiculous 33 percent line drive rate. Yeah, we should expect regression, but I’m still inclined to expect a .340 BABIP out of him. He’s a 10 to 15 stolen base guy over a full season.

Also consider: Jake Marisnick, Anthony Gose, Juan Lagares

4. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

It’s a ridiculous weather day. Anybody playing outside and not on the left coast is liable to be rained upon at some point this evening. For the most part, we’re looking at rain delays rather than actual cancellation threats. Still, it’s going to be a tough day for DFS.

The Link. In addition to the rain, there are many pitcher’s parks today.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.