The Daily Grind: Is Lowrie For Real?

In response to the title: inconclusive.

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. Lowrie Bombs

1. The Daily Grind Invitational

Yiddishbdg took home the gold with a heroic Ryan Flaherty play. I recall snorting at Flaherty when he showed up on the SaberSim value list. Joke’s on me! Our winner also took over the overall lead with his win. Congrats and Leaderboard.

It’s a tiny five game contest this evening. I’ll see ya there on DraftKings.

PS – New users who deposit with my referral link get 25% bonus cash after they jump through some DK-imposed hoops. I also get 25%.

2. Weather Reports

It’s still cold in Detroit, Chicago, Philadelphia, and New York. In this case, “cold” only means mid-40’s. We’re go for baseball.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Main Slate: The early slate is ultra tiny. Let’s focus on the merely small five game late slate. Four pitchers are yeses. Four pitchers are nos. A couple are maybes. /analysis

Jameson Taillon ($11,100) is the top arm available tonight. Sadly, DraftKings knows it. No bargain here. I do think he’ll perform well against the Phillies, but they aren’t an easy opponent. He’ll also have to overcome Jake Arrieta ($7,600). At that price, it’s awfully tempting to play the Arrieta upside.

Zack Greinke ($10,600) should earn an easy victory opposite the Giants. They’re not very strikeout prone, and Greinke is still battling reduced velocity. It’s hardly a safe $10,600 play.

‘Yes’ #4 belongs to Chase Anderson ($9,500). He’s opposed by the Marlins. The velocity gains that made Anderson an interesting 2017 breakout pitcher have evaporated. While he’s a par-value play tonight, I wouldn’t be paying this much for him in a normal slate. Although the Marlins have one of the weakest offenses in the league, they could surprise us with their mix of veterans and interesting youths.

The maybes belong to Eduardo Rodriguez ($7,300) and Nick Tropeano ($5,400). They’re tasked with overcoming each other. Boston and Los Angeles have strong offenses. Mike Trout is dope yo.

Stack Targets: Dillon Peters, Ty Blach, Matt Harvey, Whoever the Braves use

I’ve seen conflicting reports about Matt Wisler or Lucas Sims starting tonight. They’re both usually terrible.

4. SaberSim Says…

Taillon, Greinke, Arrieta, and Anderson are the top pitchers. Sure. Sims/Wisler, Tropeano, and Arrieta are the bargains. I wonder if Arrieta will be over 70 percent owned… Trout, Freddie Freeman (injured), Paul Goldschmidt, Michael Conforto, and Ryan Braun draw the top bat projections. Domingo Santana, Justin Bour, and Derek Dietrich are the peak values.

5. Lowrie Bombs

Over on my personal site, I noticed Jed Lowrie’s righty swing shares something with Giancarlo Stanton. Rather than write the same thing twice, I’ll just be clickbaity and send you there. In summary, Lowrie will regress, but I’m also modestly hopeful he’ll vastly exceed his career norms. His first 20 home run season looks increasingly likely.

Here’s Lowrie’s heroics yesterday (sandwiched between a check in from Matt Olson).