The Daily Grind: Is He Back?

Storm surges are terrifying. I recommend living on a hill or mountain. But not too steep of a mountain or else you have to worry about avalanches. And if you live too elevated, oxygen deprivation and hypothermia are increased risks. Yes, a nice hill is what we need. My sympathy to those of you affected by recent (or not-so-recent) hurricanes.

AGENDA

1. Is He Back?
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. TDG Invitational Returns!

1. Is He Back?

I think he is.

He now has four home runs in September. I’m setting the over/under at 5.5 more home runs. Who wants a taste of the action?

2. Weather Reports

A giant chunk of the southeast is under water, but none of the games this evening are at risk. The action in Tampa Bay has been moved to CitiField.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Main Slate: The eight game evening slate is headlined by $13,200 Carlos Carrasco and $11,800 Zack Greinke (all prices DK). Carrasco has a nice squishy matchup against Myles Jaye and the Tigers brokenhearted offense. Miguel Cabrera is back in action. Carrasco has thrived over his last three outings, including a strong appearance versus these same Tiggers.

Greinke is hosting the Rockies offense. Colorado has struggled to hit on the road. In many ways, Chase Field is the most similar park to Coors Field. Well, in one way – there’s no humidity. Greinke is one of the few pitchers with enough leash to toss a complete game, although he only has one this season.

It gets considerably hairier after the top names. Kenta Maeda will probably supply his usual six innings and four strikeouts. He’s visiting the Giants at pitcher friendly AT&T Park. I’m not quite comfortable paying $9,900.

Cole Hamels appears to be in a funk, but I’ve watched plenty of these Hamels “funks” in the past. As a changeup artist, he’s prone to some inconsistency. He’s also capable of bouncing back in a big way. For $8,300, he’s a solid gamble to produce 25 or more points. The Mariners are a neutral matchup.

CC Sabathia should be a predictably solid producer today. He’s set to face a lefty-prone Rays lineup. Funny that a similar roster was one of the best against southpaws last season. This year, they’re 14 percent below average. Sabathia is having a quietly superb season. He’s stayed the same while practically every other pitcher in the league has declined. Sabathia’s game is limiting hard contact.

Jason Hammel is the safer end of the matchup between the White Sox and Royals. At $6,300, Reynaldo Lopez is worth a look too. In both cases, you’re looking for 15 to 20 points. Hammel is pretty likely to get there. It’s far less certain that Lopez will succeed. Both of these offenses are pretty unimpressive.

Brandon Woodruff has been great through four starts – mostly by avoiding line drives. We’ll see if he can keep it up against the Pirates at Miller Park.

Stack Targets: Jaye, Steven Brault, Ubaldo Jimenez, Lopez, Chris Stratton, Kyle Freeland

4. SaberSim Says…

Carrasco, Greinke, Marco Estrada, Hammel, and Sabathia are the preferred arms this evening. I’ve taken to avoiding Estrada. Every time I think he’s back on track, he leaves me holding a clunker.

Paul Goldschmidt, Nelson Cruz, Starling Marte, Manny Machado, and Andrew McCutchen are the top rated hitters. I only use McCutchen against left-handed pitchers. Bargains include McCutchen, Marte, Gregory Polanco, Ezequiel Carrera, and Josh Bell. I take it SaberSim is not a fan of Woodruff. I can see why. His success is predicated on stats SaberSim doesn’t “believe” are controllable.

5. The Daily Grind Invitational

Rpimble won the contest last Friday. Unfortunately, it was another freebie. It’s just that time of year. Mr. Pim(ble) leaned on Michael Taylor and Trea Turner for nearly 100 combined points.

Since FanDuel didn’t come close to filling for two days straight, let’s head back to DraftKings for the rest of the season.