The Daily Grind: Inversions

The title doesn’t have anything to do with anything. Except with everything. You’ll see…

AGENDA

  1. TDG Invitational
  2. Weather Reports
  3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
  4. SaberSim Says…
  5. “Triple”

1.The Daily Grind Invitational

For once, it was harder to score in TDGI than the more mainstream contests. This should be rare since our contest has an overlay. And it is rare. A new participant, Pachoka, found the right combination of Bo Bichette, Nick Solak, Austin Meadows, and Michael Brantley en route to victory. Congrats and Leaderboard.

Here we are for a 15-game Friday night shindig on FantasyDraft. You bring the beers.

2. Weather Reports

Finally, something to report. It might rain in Boston and New York. Might. So, check reports closer to game time.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Clayton Kershaw resides atop the price list in a classic matchup against the rival San Franciscans of Gigantes. For $23,300, you too can grab a share of perhaps the most consistent pitcher in all of pitcherdom. Of course, he finally ruined his pattern of throwing between six and seven innings last week with a lousy five inning outing. I ain’t touching Jeff Samardzija for $16,000.

Lucas Giolito ($22,900) also has a friendly matchup against a strikeout resistant but mostly punchless Angles offense. Mike Trout is the lone Angle with the proper launch codes in this one. Dillon Peters ($11,000) could be a viable bargain target against the ever-volatile Bleached Sox offense.

Patrick Corbin is perhaps $1,000 above par value in a visit to Atlanta. He’ll cost ya $21,600. Also about $1,000 over list value is his opponent, Dallas Keuchel ($17,900). Both pitchers risk slipping through the cracks with low ownership rates since there’s no overriding reason to use them. And that becomes our overriding reason to use them.

Robbie Ray ($20,400) is a strikeout machine, but can he survive the Ballpark of Great Americans? Will there be any Great Americans in attendance? What about Decent Americans? Surely there will be some of those on hand. Tyler Mahle ($12,200) is appropriately cheap. He tends to bounce between 20 point performances and disasters.

Michael Pineda ($19,400) has quietly turned into a low-end ace, although this fact has not escaped the notice of DFS pricing algorithms. The Indians offense is a neutral matchup these days.

Homer Bailey baby! The athletic Oaklander is hosting Los Tigres del Detroit. Roar!

Miles Mikolas ($15,100) has looked… less bad… in recent weeks. A visit to PNC Park is about as friendly a setting as he’ll find. The Joe Musgrove ($12,100) looks to be a much better value. I consider these two pitchers evenly matched so I’ll happily pocket a $3,000 savings.

I haven’t seen anybody discussing Steven Matz’s ($14,600) upwardly trending velocity and strikeout rates. He’s not an ace, but he is an easy top 50 pitcher. He’s extremely cheap in a neutral matchup against the Phillies.

Wade Miley melted but that doesn’t mean Framber Valdez ($14,000) will follow suit. While the Raspberry Man is one of my favorite untouted pitchers, this is a lot to pay for somebody who isn’t especially likely to reach five innings. Then again, the Mariners offense surely can’t strike twice. Right?

There are a bunch of other guys, but I’d rather not touch any of them. A few exceptions include Brendan McKay ($15,300) hosting the Blue Jays, Zach Davies ($10,900) at home versus the Cubbies, and Dinelson Lamet ($19,600) versus the sea level Rockies. McKay and Lamet are definitely overpriced, but they’re also hidden on FDraft so their ownership will be tiny.

Maybe Jorge Lopez ($10,300) will boil up some Marlin for us. Or perhaps Pablo Lopez ($12,700) will dethrone the aristocracy.

Favorite Plays: Kershaw, Giolito, Pineda, Bailey, Matz

Stack Targets: Jhoulys Chacin, Matt Wisler et al, Lopez x2, Spencer Turnbull, Davies, Peters, Mahle, Tim Melville, Clay Buchholz, Adam Plutko, Zach Eflin, Brock Burke, Dylan Bundy

Yep, no shortage of stackables.

4. SaberSim Says…

Corbin, Kershaw, Ray, Giolito, and Lamet are the top projected pitches. The Sim projects Corbin to nab 7.63 punch outs in 6.06 innings. That seems ambitious against a lefty-mashing offense. Musgrove, Peters, Valdez, Bundy, and Matz are the preferred bargains.

On the hitting side, Cody Bellinger, Alex Bregman, Aristides Aquino, Pete Alonso, and Nelson Cruz headline the charts. Lewis Brinson, Ryan McBroom, Austin Dean, Isan Diaz, and Ty France comprise the bargain plays. I can’t remember the time I actually used one of these always-bargain Marlins.

5. “Triple”

If I have one regret from 2019 (on the DFS side), it’s that I never seem to find myself rostering Brantley. He’s such a solid contributor.

Moran on Moran violence.

And thus the Red Sox season ended.

Look, a “triple.”

We hoped you liked reading The Daily Grind: Inversions by Brad Johnson!

Please support FanGraphs by becoming a member. We publish thousands of articles a year, host multiple podcasts, and have an ever growing database of baseball stats.

FanGraphs does not have a paywall. With your membership, we can continue to offer the content you've come to rely on and add to our unique baseball coverage.

Support FanGraphs




You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam

newest oldest most voted
dcholcomb
Member
Member

Ol’ Homer Bailey is a free agent in my league and I’m considering selecting him to use in one of my fantasy team’s remaining 19 starting pitcher in this home start versus one of the worst offenses in my lifetime. I mean, there really is a non-0% chance he throws a no hitter.