The Daily Grind: In Absentia

As I threatened, today’s column is actually being written on Wednesday night. As such, many of my normal resources – i.e. SaberSim and stadium specific weather reports – are not yet available. Also, things can happen tonight that may result in a certain obsolescence to this content tomorrow. I’ll just cross my fingers.

Second also, even though this appears to be the second paragraph, I’m writing this last. Consider it a premature conclusion (there’s a pill for that). It seems my “style” is particularly unhinged when working at night. I usually only write fiction at night. I apologize. Or not. Piss off already. Go read the words about the players.

AGENDA

1. Announcement for the Intention of the Utilization of New Approaches Hitherto Unapproached
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

1. Announcement for the Intention of the Utilization of New Approaches Hitherto Unapproached

To be honest, I’m having a rather miserable season on the DFS front. It’s good for my self pride that my traditional fantasy leagues are going so well. It’s also nice that one good day of DFSery can undo months of mediocrity. Hope springs eternal.

I’ll be honest a second time, I’ve only partially assed this season. Like 25 percent assed. Is that better or worse than 75 percent assed? The new run environment is… confusing. More confusing is that my personal scores are at a career low. With hitters scoring more points, my teams should also score more points, no?

The problem, I believe, is an over-embrasure of volatility. Seeing that the top lineups tend to require upwards of eight or 10 home runs, I’ve attempted to cheat to the measure. The idea was to win big once, offsetting all the small losses. The problem is that unless you spike a very tip-top finish, one big day won’t sustain you. I’ve had a couple massive point totals, but have yet to earn over 5x my buyins. That takes… four days to lose. And those “big” scores have come once every other month. Smaller wins cover two days of play. The math is ugly…

Going forward, I’m going to try a 50/50 style approach to the GPPs. Instead of aiming at a chance of 280 FD points, I’ll shoot for a likelihood of 150 points. A wise ass might say, why don’t you do both?  To which I respond that they’re mutually exclusive conditions. One lineup is basically eight Joey Gallos – some of which are unpopular plays that day – while the other uses high floor values, superstars, and stacks.

For the stretch run of the season, I’ll also be reinvesting in RotoQL. I’m getting it for work – it’s a business expense! Accordingly, I shall write more about the tool as I use it. If you would like to use it ($100/mo for the full package), please ask me for a referral link first.

2. Weather Reports

The forecast doesn’t look great for Minnesota or Chicago. Check in closer to game time.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Early Slate: The three game early slate features a full range of pitching talent. Zack Greinke is visiting Jose Quintana, pitting the two best pitchers against one another. Michael Wacha is hanging out in Milwaukee with Matt Garza. The Garz is returning from disability. There’s also a Coors Field game in which the brave (not the Braves) can hope German Marquez pitches decently.

Stack Targets: Rafael Montero, Garza, Marquez

Main Slate: Corey Kluber is the chief ace in what we can only hope isn’t another short outing for a superstar pitcher. I’m still sore about Scherzer, Sale, and Carrasco on Tuesday. Kluber has recorded 10 or more strikeouts in 10 of his last 13 starts. That’s pretty impressive. Sorry for ya Yanquis. Sonny Gray makes his debut in pinstripes. They’re soooo slimming.

Alex Wood returns to his old stomping grounds in Atlanta only to discover that they are, in fact, new stomping grounds. And they don’t belong to him at all! The Braves handed Wood his worst start a couple weeks ago. It was basically the only time he didn’t stomp upon the stompable. It’s good though, now he’s a rosterable $9,600 – appropriate since he basically never exceeds seven innings.

*scans rest of list…No. no no no no. (go to 1:10)

Collin McHugh is recently returned from the disabled list. The banged up Astros presumably want their starters to be available in October, so they’ll probably play it safe tomorrow. Besides, the Rays offense has all kind of lefty boppers.

Eduardo Rodriguez is also a recent returnee. And he’s been quite dogcrappy since his activation. The good news – he’s racking up the Ks. The bad news – he’s racking up the walks too. He’s a scary dart throw against a terrible White Sox offense. Lefty masher Matt Davidson may be sidelined.

Parker Bridwell is that guy who has a really good April for no apparent reason, and it makes the rest of his season look not terrible. But it was terrible. And with Bridwell, it’s going to be terrible. I’m wary of the Phillies. The PHILLIES.

Kendall Graveman is back from the disabled list (yep, another one) for a short appearance. Or so I assume. Graveman is a solid high floor, low ceiling guy when healthy. Is he healthy? The doctors seem to say so. Then why is he encrust with rust?

Sean Newcomb is talented in some definable ways I don’t care to define. The Dodgers lineup is more talented. Next!

Chad Kuhl throws 95 mph and could be so much better if only he pitched better. In all seriousness, I like him as a breakout candidate as he learns to better use offspeed stuff. I hope to see him become the rich man’s version of J.C. Ramirez (the poor man’s version is Jose Urena). None of that helps us tomorrow versus the Reds, but at least he’s cheap.

Stack Targets: Blake Snell, Jerad Eickhoff, Sal Romano, Yovani Gallardo, Chris Tillman, Miguel Gonzalez, A.J. Griffin,