The Daily Grind: “I’m Not A Number Crunching Robot”

It’s Luis Urias time in San Diego. I offer some quick thoughts in today’s Streaming Wars.

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. Harper’s Admiration

1. The Daily Grind Invitational

Garrick stole the show last Friday with quite a few unexpected sources of value. We saw Rich Hill coming, but Ji-Man Choi, Willy Adames, and Andrew McCutchen combined for 84 of 163.75 points. Cutch and Adames were solo-owned. Congrats and Leaderboard.

After missing yesterday for personal reasons, we’re back on FantasyDraft for a deep Tuesday night slate. Come for the no rake GPP. Stay for the overlay.

If you have not signed up for FantasyDraft, please use this referral link for tracking purposes. If I understand properly, by using the referral, you will receive a 10 percent return on any rakes you pay.

2. Weather Reports

Kauffman Stadium is the most likely venue to be affected by rain. A delay or mid-game postponement is possible. As of right now, the Mets-Cubs game should beat overnight storms. That forecast could change closer to game time.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Main Slate: Rematch! This time, Max Scherzer ($24,600) is visiting Aaron Nola ($20,700). And this time, FantasyDraft hasn’t completely discounted Nola’s chances of winning. Scherzer looks tasty because the Phillies have some strikeout prone hitters. A fifteen K performance is not out of the question. I think Nola actually looks like the higher floor pick even if his ceiling isn’t quite as contest-shattering. The math for both aces looks correct.

Elsewhere, you can try Jacob deGrom ($23,900) at Cole Hamels ($18,400). I get a chuckle out of all the ways the Mets find to lose deGrom’s starts. With the Cubs potent lineup and the Mets utter lack of one, deGrom may need a complete game shutout tonight. In five starts since joining the Cubs, Hamels has pitched exceptionally well. His velocity has spontaneously increased by two mph. It’s a continuation of a trend that actually began a couple starts before he was traded. I kinda like him as a contrarian play. The Mets are just soooo bad.

Jack Flaherty should have an easy path to victory. He’s at home against a fading Pirates roster. Flaherty costs $20,300 which is a tad over the $1000 per point I usually try to pay. The value could still work. Since he’s the least good of the over $20,000 club, I suspect he’ll have a relatively low ownership.

Clay Buchholz benefits from a visit to San Francisco, yet I’m unconvinced that’s enough to support a $19,700 price. Toss in Madison Bumgarner ($18,100) as the opponent, and it’s looking like Buchholz is very overpriced. Like Flaherty, he could be underrepresented in GPPs as a result.

Walker Buehler ($19,700) should, uh, skate to victory. You thought I was going to say he’d “walk” to victory. When have baseball writers ever used such horrible puns? In any cast, he’s also a bit pricey for a soft, squishy matchup.

Oh look, more expensive players with good matchups. Carlos Carrasco ($19,400) is a high value target opposite the Twins. He gets the modest home field advantage too. I love the price/value ratio here. Charlie Morton ($18,400) is tasked with cooling down a hot Athletics club. Even so, this is another fantastic price.

A number of usable pitchers lurk below the thick upper crust. Kyle Freeland ($18,000) is visiting the Angels. He’s typically a core performer. Julio Teheran ($16,100) has snapped off a couple impressive outings lately. The visiting Rays aren’t especially scary. However, don’t overlook Yonny Chirinos. It’s a shame he costs $10,500 instead of $8,000. As the Rays second pitcher, he does have elevated odds for a win.

Lance Lynn ($15,400) hosts a strikeout prone opponent – the White Sox. Kyle Gibson is better than his $14,500 cost even if he’s likely to lose. And he could win. Matt Boyd ($14,500) has the pleasure of facing a terrible Royals offense. Brian Johnson ($13,200) draws the Marlins. Fish are easy to draw.

Stack Targets: James Shields, Taylor Cole, Ariel Jurado, Jacob Nix, Ryne Stanek, Ivan Nova, Jose Urena, Felix Hernandez, Edwin Jackson

One of these days, Jackson will turn into a sheep. That’s how Polymorph works.

4. SaberSim Says…

Scherzer, Morton, Carrasco, Flaherty, and Bumgarner are the preferred arms tonight. Nola and deGrom received some serious hate. They’re eighth and 10th respectively. The best usable values include Lynn, Boyd, Morton, and Scherzer.

For hitters, look to Giancarlo Stanton, Mookie Betts, Randal Grichuk, J.D. Martinez, and/or Christian Yelich. Bargain hunters should try Cubs and Mets apparently – Devin Mesoraco, Jay Bruce, Daniel Murphy, Amed Rosario, and Wilmer Flores. Those aren’t my first choices, but I’m not a number crunching robot.

5. Harper’s Admiration

Probably true.

Bryce Harper reacting to his future teammate’s homer pic.twitter.com/nP3bx6JXIe

— chris jones¯\_(ツ)_/¯ (@LONG_DRIVE) August 28, 2018