The Daily Grind: If Bauer Skaggs Morton

Streams feed rivers which usually end in a lake or an ocean. Will following the path of the streamer lead you to water? Here are some waiver wire target for tomorrow in Streaming Wars.

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. Paxtonator

1. The Daily Grind Invitational

Kidzero put together a pair of winners last night. I’m considering adopting his high risk, high reward approach of fielding very similar rosters. The better of his two lineups used Jose Ramirez, Aaron Nola, Manny Machado, and a serious of solid contributors. Congrats and Leaderboard.

Daily overlays continue to supply TDGI participants with free money. We have our usual contest on FantasyDraft tonight – $2, 52 entries.

If you have not signed up for FantasyDraft, please use this referral link for tracking purposes. If I understand properly, by using the referral, you will receive a 10 percent return on any rakes you pay.

2. Weather Reports

They say heavy weather will open your eyes. Watch out for the heaviness in Detroit, Atlanta, Washington, and Pittsburgh. The first two venues have postponement risk while the latter pair will probably be fine.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Main Slate: Trevor Bauer ($25,700) has top billing, although I find myself drawn to Kyle Gibson for $17,000. Gibson is on the trade block today so there’s a chance he’ll disappear. If so, Bauer goes from $1,500 too pricey to bargain mode.

Second priciest is Tyler Skaggs ($22,000) in a seemingly favorable matchup against the Rays at Tropicana Field. As commenters like to remind me, the Rays have actually produced solid results at home. I frankly don’t care about what they’ve done. They’re not a good offense because none of the players in the lineup are good. Several of them are actively bad hitters. That said, Skaggs is slightly overpriced.

Of the expensive pitchers, my favorite value is Charlie Morton ($21,400). He’s just as likely as Bauer to turn in a big double-digit strikeout performance. The matchup quality is about equal to Bauer too – the Mariners offense is better than the Twins but Mike Leake is worse than Gibson. Therefore, Morton is more likely to win.

Masahiro Tanaka ($19,400) has a soft matchup against the Orioles. I never know what to make of him. Home runs often mar even his best outings. He’s heavily favored for a win though. At the top of the mid-tier lie Jon Gray ($18,600) at Jack Flaherty ($17,600). Nothing wrong with trying either side of that pair of good, young starters.

Lately, the Brewers have had their share of struggles. Walker Buehler ($16,300) is definitely favored over Wade Miley ($10,800) although probably not as much as the price suggests. I’ve consistently used Miley at mega-bargain prices, but I’ll probably pass today.

If I was making my MLB debut, I’d want to face the Miami Marlins. Such is the case with Kolby Allard ($13,000), a highly regarded pitching prospect with not-quite-impressive results in the minors. He hasn’t learned to parlay solid swinging strike rates into actual strikeouts. A major league gameplan could help.

More… Jameson Taillon is always underpriced. I’ll take a stab at the Cubs for only $15,300. I prefer Taillon to Jon Lester ($16,200). Zack Godley ($14,700) is in a great spot against the strikeout prone Rangers. He’s looked better lately too. I worry Trevor Cahill ($14,900) is reverting to the version we saw in the second half of last season. If he rebounds, the Blue Jays are an easy opponent.

Stack Targets: Homer Bailey, Bartolo Colon, Yefry Ramirez, Sam Gaviglio, Dan Straily, Drew Pomeranz, Jake Arrieta

Yes, I’d strongly consider Red Sox and Phillies stacks against supposedly-but-not-actually good pitchers.

4. SaberSim Says…

Godley, Flaherty, Bauer, Tanaka, and Gray are the preferred arms. Playable values include Godley, James Shields, Flaherty, and Taillon. The best bats are Giancarlo Stanton, Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Rhys Hoskins. Sims dig the long ball. For bargain hunters: Roman Quinn, Wilmer Flores, Jeff McNeil, Matt Duffy, and Mike Moustakas.

5. Paxtonator

I had some concerns about James Paxton entering yesterday. He… pacified them.

This is why people don’t think the Phillies are a playoff team.

Eric Thames is left-handed Khris Davis.