The Daily Grind: Hutchison, Urena, Buxton

Agenda

1. DFS Bullpens
2. Daily DFS – Hutchison
3. Tomorrow’s Targets – Chavez, Urena, Smith, Buxton
4. Factor Grid

1. DFS Bullpens

We’ve discussed the hidden importance of bullpen here on the Grind. In short, think twice about targeting matchups with the Royals and Cardinals. Do take advantage of the Phillies, Braves, and Rockies. Brett Talley provided more detail about the quality of bullpens last Thursday. He looks at points allow per batter faced by bullpens (the Astros have been the best), and how it affects the value of certain starting pitchers. Check it out if you missed it.

2. Daily DFS – Hutchison

We’re getting just seven evening games tonight. Despite the thin slate, Clayton Kershaw, Felix Hernandez, and Michael Pineda are on the table. Kershaw has the strikeout happy Cubs, Hernandez has the ever-difficult Royals, and Pineda will see the pitiful Phillies. All cost over $10,000 on FanDuel.

If you want a pitcher you can actually afford, Drew Hutchison looks like the obvious choice. He’s opposed by the Rays at pitcher friendly Tropicana Field. Hutchison has offered a Jekyll and Hyde performance this year. Over his last five outings, his FanDuel point totals have ranged from -2.67 to 21. I’d bet on a 12 to 17 point evening.

The ultra-stealthy mega-fade is Joe Blanton. He costs nothing – with good reason. However, he has a solid strikeout rate, tiny walk rate, and he’s kept the home runs under control through 20 innings. He’s also showing career best velocity and whiff rates. Traditionally fantasy owners in sufficiently deep leagues should consider adding him. Since he’s opposed by King Felix, you’ll need some balls to try him tonight.

Stack Targets: Correia, Kyle Ryan, John Danks, Hector Santiago

3. Tomorrow’s Targets – Chavez, Urena, Smith, Buxton

Pitchers to Start: Ick. it’s not a good day for streaming pitchers. The three guys listed below are slightly above 50 percent owned on Yahoo. Chavez is opposed by a decent Rangers offense at hitter friendly Globe Life Park. Wilson has the power happy Astros, but at least the game is at Halos Stadium. There was one point in the season when I instinctively cringed away from the Red Sox offense. Now I’m cringing for a different reason. Jimenez should pick up a win.

Also consider: Jesse Chavez, C.J. Wilson, Ubaldo Jimenez

Pitchers to Exploit: Jose Urena has four straight quality starts. On the surface, that may look like a guy who is turning the corner. In his most recent start, he allowed six hits, four walks, and struck out one in six innings. He was lucky to allow only two runs. With 3.62 K/9 and 2.78 BB/9, Urena is a pure balls-in-play pitcher. The Marlins defense is fine, but BABIP guys are always a risk for a meltdown.

Also consider: Sean O’Sullivan, CC Sabathia, Jeff Locke, Joe Kelly, R.A. Dickey, Chi Chi Gonzalez, Kyle Kendrick, Jeremy Guthrie, Odrisamer

Hitters (power): Jeremy Guthrie is a big time platoon pitcher. Lefties are hitting .323/.393/.571 against him this season (.413 wOBA). Ouch. The Mariners have plenty of freely available lefty bats, headlined by Seth Smith, Logan Morrison, and Brad Miller.

Also consider: Matt Duffy, Domingo Santana, David Peralta, Jake Lamb, Melky Cabrera, David DeJesus, Marlon Byrd, Maikel Franco, Jeff Francoeur, Garrett Jones

Hitters (speed): People are jumping off the Byron Buxton bandwagon (46 percent owned on Yahoo). He’s just 3-for-27 with a 33.3 percent strikeout rate. So long as the Twins remain committed to him, he’s worth a gamble. Jeff Samardzija isn’t an easy matchup.

Also consider: Ender Inciarte, Adam Eaton, Jon Jay

4. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The Chicago game is most likely to be interrupted. The current weather report indicates that the rain should be spotty. Keep an eye out for changes.

The Link.

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