The Daily Grind: Hot Healy Pockets

This is the part with the flavor text. I write this last even though you read it first.

AGENDA

1. Hot Healy
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. Hitters to Use
5. SaberSim Says…
6. TDG Invitational Returns!

1. Hot Healy

Way back on May 4, a twitter follower griped about Ryon Healy’s performance. I said the following:

Be patient with him. He’ll suddenly hit four home runs in six days at some point. Average won’t be good with the decline in contact.

— Brad Johnson (@BaseballATeam) May 4, 2017

Healy immediately responded with three home runs in three days. He didn’t cap my prediction with a fourth bomb. However, after multi-homer games in two of his last three contests, I can claim prediction victory. Here he is murdering baseballs yesterday.

Since May 4, Healy is slashing .333/.356/.658 (.368 BABIP) with 10 home runs in 118 plate appearances. The average will fall back into a hole pending BABIP regression.

Speaking of murder, I sometimes wonder if our sports metaphors get writers like me on FBI or NSA watch lists. My dad was on a no fly list because some terrorist also used the name “Joe Johnson.” These lists are not very precise. Nor, apparently, is our player linker.

2. Weather Reports

Atlanta, New York, and Denver have very small storm risks. Pay attention later in the day.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Main Slate: It’s one massive 15 game slate. Good luck digesting this noise. Max Scherzer is the king of the day. For $13,000, he better supply an awful lot of tax revenue. As much as I’d like to jump on the Robbie Ray hot streak, he’s not a $11,900 pitcher. Jacob deGrom and Chris Archer are also very expensive, although I may make room for Archer at home versus the White Sox.

You’ll find more aces below the aces. James Paxton is only $8,800 opposite the Twins. It’s practically a must-play price in GPPs against a team with an 84 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers. Beware a short outing.

Jake Arrieta hasn’t been a top five pitcher since 2015, but he’s still a high quality hurler. He gets too much flak for a couple of bad outings versus tough opponents. The Marlins have some power bats and very little else. The wind is blowing in at Wrigley. Stiffly.

Marco Estrada is super consistent – except for last time out. He’s great for those cash games.

Jose Quintana could have a rebound in store versus the Rays. They have a 27.5 percent strikeout rate against southpaws.

If you’re trying to get away with using a cheap arm, might I suggest Dinelson Lamet, Ivan Nova, or Aaron Nola? They’re all below $7,000, and they all have over 20 point ability.

Stack Targets: Dillon Gee, Mike Clevinger, Matt Cain, Antonio Senzatela, Jeff Locke, Hector Santiago, Jake Junis, Tim Adleman, David Paulino, Kevin Gausman

4. Hitters to Use

Yan Gomes is going the be the most affordable of the Indians visiting Coors Field. Roster any and all Clevelanders versus Senzatela. Grab the Rockies too.

I keep betting on Matt Carpenter to break out of his slump with mucho gusto. He’s visiting one of the best parks for a surge, and he’s opposed by Adleman. Don’t ask me what happened last night with Asher Wojciechowski…

I’m very much intrigued by the pirating lifestyle. The Buccos have sailed into Baltimore harbor to plunder the Yards of Camden. Josh Harrison, Adam Frazier, and John Jaso are among the most fascinating of the Pirates.

Jedd Gyorko is a regular double dong threat. Elsewhere at third base, Maikel Franco may be a productive bargain pick versus a southpaw at Atlanta’s new launching pad.

The shortstop to own is Francisco Lindor. Assuming you can’t afford $5,100, the actual shortstop to own is, uh, Corey Seager? Taylor Motter? This is hard.

Carlos Gonzalez is $3,800 so of course he’ll be owned on 133 percent of rosters.

5. SaberSim Says…

Scherzer, Archer, Ray, Paxton, and Quintana crowd the top of the pitcher projections. The machine and I agree. Eric Thames, Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, Edwin Encarnacion, and Charlie Blackmon are the preferred hitters. They’re all very expensive. Like pretty much unrosterable. Sorting by value reveals a bunch of scrubs like Eric Young, Allen Cordoba, Darwin Barney, Gregor Blanco, and Shane Robinson. Rougned Odor is sixth by value (i.e. points per dollar).

6. The Daily Grind Invitational

Kidzero skunked us with just three players. The combination of Jeff Samardzija, Brian McCann, and Ryon Healy scored 142.5 points. They alone furnished an 18 point cushion over the second place team. Overall, he nabbed 173.7 points. Leaderboard.

Thank god it’s DraftKings day. FanDuel is destroying me this season.