The Daily Grind: Heavy Aces

Over the weekend, I discovered my favorite vampire movie is now a TV series on FX starring Matt Berry. It’s the best thing ever.

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. Instant Gratification

1.The Daily Grind Invitational

RaleighFingers clumped together six Athletics en route to a romping victory. A spiked stack can really make this game look easy. Congrats and Leaderboard.

It’s the full Monty on FantasyDraft this evening.

2. Weather Reports

Considering how often it’s rained where I live, this August has been very clear of serious weather risks.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

The top dog tonight is Justin Verlander ($23,100). He’s paired against one of the other top dogs – Charlie Morton ($21,100). In both cases, we’re looking at nearly matchup-proof pitchers against challenging opponents. They cancel out each others usually elevated chances for the win bonus. I consider them par value plays.

Lucas Giolito ($22,400) just fired a stunning complete game shutout against the Twins. They’ll get a chance for revenge this evening. Given the homertastic tendencies of the Minnesota offense, doubling down on Giolito is a risky choice. We now know the absolute upside is pretty damned fantastic. Michael Pineda ($15,300) is a pretty strong mid-tier option. Since a very cold start to the season, he’s consistently outperformed this price tag.

Walker Buehler ($21,500) will probably be the most popular pitcher in the slate opposite the righty-prone Padres offense. The last time he faced the Friars, he tossed a complete game with 15 strikeouts. Cal Quantrill ($14,100) has drawn some critical acclaim, but I’m still out in all but the most pressing scenarios. There’s only one reason to use him against the Dodgers – FDraft forgot to list him as part of the slate.

Patrick Corbin ($21,500) should dance a merry jig around the Orioles. While “hapless” is an appropriate way to describe the Baltimore club, they’re not entirely hopeless versus left-handed pitching (92 wRC+). A win is very likely.

Mike Minor ($20,600) managed to strike out seven Angels last week, but he was also rather hit-prone. He’ll get a rematch tonight. Considering the other options at this price point, I’ll have trouble finding room for Minor. I’m not interested in treating Andrew Heaney ($19,000) like a lesser ace. He’s a $16,900 pitcher. He is, however, coming off a gem opposite this same Rangers offense. And I must say I prefer Heaney to Minor.

Speaking of better options, Luis Castillo ($19,700) is visiting Miami. ‘Nuf said, right? Right. Caleb Smith ($18,100) is overpriced relative to others in the slate.

Yu Darvish ($18,700) is back to his old self. More or less. He’s racking up strikeouts with some random number chaos tossed on top. He’s visiting pitcher friendly CitiField, although the Mets offense isn’t exactly accommodating these days. Marcus Stroman ($14,900) is an unimaginative mid-tier option.

Mike Soroka ($17,700) is an ace in mid-tier clothing. The point totals haven’t quite reflected his deGromulent style of pitching, but it’s only a matter of time. A visit to the Toronto Bleu Jays could do the trick. They feature a top-heavy offense.

With all these big names and affordable salaries, nobody’s gonna want to use Mike Fiers ($16,200) even though he’s visiting the Royals. This looks like a scarcely owned, high floor, modest ceiling play to me.

Finally, we’re getting down to some fringier names. Masahiro Tanaka’s new splitter has produced mixed results. Or perhaps the results have nothing to do with his signature pitch and everything to do with his bad fastball. In any case, $14,600 is a fair price to pay for a visit to Seattle.

I’ve personally watched Adam Plutko ($13,000) carve through good Triple-A offenses without batting an eye. He’s an ace in the minors. The Tigers, as we’ve discussed, run the equivalent of a bad Triple-A offense. Plutko should thrive.

Mike Leake ($10,900) has been downright terrible since joining the Diamondbacks. Perhaps a family friendly vacation to Oracle Park will spark some creativity.

Adrian Houser ($9,900), Steven Brault ($9,400), and Drew Smyly ($9,300) almost can’t help but return value on these low, low prices. Houser in particular looks like a decent mid-tier arm.

Favorite Plays: Buehler, Corbin, Castillo, Soroka, Plutko, Houser

Picking only six names was a challenge.

Stack Targets: Aaron Brooks, Wilmer Font, Smyly, Brault, Leake, Yusei Kikuchi, Rick Porcello, Rico Garcia

Coors Field game!

4. SaberSim Says…

Verlander, Buehler, Corbin, Smith, and Heaney are the machine’s picks. Smyly, Houser, Mike Montgomery, Miles Mikolas, and Brault are the value plays. Go to Coors for Rafael Devers, Charlie Blackmon, J.D. Martinez, and Mookie Betts. Juan Soto also sneaked into the Top Five bats. Bargains include Josh Rojas, Abraham Toro-Hernandez, Lewis Brinson, Ryan O’Hearn, and, uh, Meibrys Viloria. As for that latter name, given his singular punchlessness, I’d stick with the very low chance of catching Brinson’s one magically good game.

5.Instant Gratification

There was some whinging about the Phillies keeping Sean Rodriguez over Maikel Franco. Instant gratification.

Marcus Semien is a roto-stud this year. You’ll find him on many winning rosters.

About damned time, I’ve picked Mike Ford as a bargain target a couple hundred times this year.