The Daily Grind: Hands Off

Please note: today’s afternoon chat is dependent on rain. Specifically, it needs to rain at my location (40 percent chance) otherwise I’ll be busy elsewhere.

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. Hands Off Scenarios

1.The Daily Grind Invitational

Congrats to roc-pile for cashing in on a hefty and relatively unpopular Mariners stack. It was a good play, one that was overshadowed by similar matchups at friendlier venues. Leaderboard.

Join us tonight for yet another no rake, $2 GPP on FantasyDraft.

If you have not signed up for FantasyDraft, please use this referral link for tracking purposes. If I understand properly, by using the referral, you will receive a 10 percent return on any rakes you pay.

2. Weather Reports

It’s been a lucky spring. Once again there’s no rain in the forecast.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

We have 10 games on the agenda for this evening. A whole slew of aces are on the table…

Starting with Jacob deGrom ($22,400)! In two starts, deGrom has looked even better than in past seasons, combining the velocity of Roger Clemens with the pinpoint command of Greg Maddux. We could be in for a truly special season. The visiting Twins seemingly have no chance, although I do like Kyle Gibson ($13,100) as a bargain play.

Next up in ace city is Gerrit Cole ($20,600). He has the somewhat tricky job of besting an injury depleted yet still solid Yankees offense. Jonathan Loaisiga ($13,500) has the even scarier task of limiting the damage versus the Astros. Someday when he has a better matchup, we’ll talk in more detail about Johnny Lasagna.

Freddy Peralta ($19,600) is the surprise third-priciest pitcher. This is a terrible value for a mid-tier arm on the road. Especially with the DH in play.

Stephen Strasburg ($18,800) costs more than Aaron Nola ($17,600)? Against that offense? At that ballpark? No thanks. Nola is the dollar-for-dollar play even if his command hasn’t been as sharp in the early going.

Ross Stripling ($17,800) is a very consistent mid-tier performer who can occasionally hit ace-like point totals. While the Cardinals offense is a somewhat difficult matchup, I’d bet on the Los Angeles juggernaut to furnish Stripling with a win.

On the one hand, the Giants offense is quite terrible. On the other hand, Joey Lucchesi ($17,600) really struggled against right-handed hitters last season. And San Fran can load up on righties including their most recent acquisition Tyler Austin. I think using Lucchesi is a fine gamble, but the reasons he might fail are readily apparent (i.e. home runs to right-handed hitters). Oracle Park is notoriously pitcher friendly. If I have to choose, I prefer Derek Holland ($14,000) for $3,600 less. He looks the same as last season.

German Marquez ($17,000) also looks the same as last season which means I’m not afraid of using him at Coors Field. Even against a good opponent like the Braves. Jakob Junis ($14,500), Marco Gonzales ($14,500), Zack Greinke ($16,700), and Mike Minor ($12,900) are also of interest tonight.

Favorite Plays: deGrom, Nola, Stripling, Marquez, Holland

I’m probably not digging any deeper into the bargain bin than Holland.

Stack Targets: Matt Harvey, John Means, Max Fried, Dakota Hudson

Hudson and (surprisingly) Fried seem sufficiently talented to provide DFS value. Unfortunately Hudson faces the Dodgers and Fried is visiting Coors Field.

4. SaberSim Says…

deGrom, Cole, Greinke, Nola, and Strasburg are the preferred arms for this evening. Values consist of Greinke, deGrom, Minor, Cole, and John Means (short starts). Kyle Gibson is next in line for when Means’ projection is corrected.

Freddie Freeman, Christian Yelich, Ronald Acuna, Khris Davis, and Trevor Story lead the bats. Matt Chapman, Ender Inciarte, Mallex Smith, Kole Calhoun, and Ian Kinsler are bargains tonight.

5. Hands Off Scenarios

There are three teams I plan to avoid at all costs. The Phillies offense is ridiculously deep and tenacious. What I like most about it is the diversified skill sets. They should prove immune to all but the toughest aces. The Dodgers lineup is even scarier, although I could see a few weaknesses (re)emerging. Like good left-handed opposing pitchers. The Astros have maintained (and deepened) their excellent offense from 2017.

In all three cases, I’m only using the Max Scherzer class of pitcher against them in daily fantasy except in very specific scenarios. We’ll discuss them when they happen. I might drop down to Strasburg-level aces in season-long.

The other scenario I avoid is visiting pitchers at Coors Field. Obviously. It’s important to keep an eye on prices though. For instance, I had a share of Julio Teheran yesterday because the price was right. The sites sometimes over-account for the Coors effect.