The Daily Grind: GPPs, Harang, Simon
Agenda
- DFS Tournament Strategy
- Daily DFS – Harang and Smyly
- GB / FB Splits
- Tomorrow’s Targets – Simon, Danks, Davis, De Aza
- Factor Grid
1. DFS Tournament Strategy
Yesterday we discussed DFS cash games. Interestingly, there is more debate about the proper way to build a cash game lineup than I realized. Those I’ve talked to have sworn up and down that they almost never roster more than two players from the same team. However, at least one of the commenters yesterday advocated a four player stack as a means of increasing both expected floor and ceiling.
Tournament strategy is a little easier. You’re chasing ceiling, so feel free to cut loose with a Chris Carter or Pedro Alvarez if you like the matchup. Their ability to bop two home runs with six RBI on a given day can make or break a roster.
Stacking is the most common approach to tournaments. FanDuel let’s you pick four players from one lineup. Usually, you can land a full stack plus a mini two or three player stack from another game. DraftKings caps at six hitters from a single team.
In certain formats, it can make sense to zig by chasing the best values regardless of team. The FanDuel Squeeze is often won by an owner without a notable stack. I consider this a situational strategy – most days you’ll want to stack.
It still makes sense to roster a few cheap players filling important roles. When a bench guy is plugged into the two-hole, he’s almost automatically a valuable asset.
Like hitters, selecting a pitcher is all about ceiling and opportunity cost. I generally target the cheapest pitcher who could reasonably be expected to post an excellent outing. On FanDuel, that’s around 18 points. I’m looking for over 27 points on DraftKings.
For example, I used Clay Buchholz in a tournament yesterday. I would never select him in a cash game. You’ll still occasionally pay for a top pitcher.
2. Daily DFS – Harang and Smyly
For the second straight season, Aaron Harang is off to a quick start. He’s accrued 0.4 WAR in three starts. While that doesn’t really mean anything, the Phillies’ offense and pitching staff has compiled 0.3 WAR. Yep, in at least one limited sense, Harang has been more valuable than all other Phillies combined. Even Ryan Howard.
Harang is a decent pitcher, but he looks like a 4.00 ERA guy. The Phillies should receive a decent prospect for him later this year, but fantasy owners needn’t jump on the bandwagon. However, he’ll face a terrible Braves offense today. It should be a low scoring game.
After acquiring Drew Smyly in the David Price trade, the Rays tinkered with his pitch usage. The result left fantasy analysts with some mild hope about his 2015 prospects. He returns to action today against the Blue Jays. Jose Bautista will be out of the lineup, but the Jays still have a bunch of right-handed hitters who can mash lefties. It’s a good day to take a pass on Smyly.
Stack Targets: Miguel Gonzalez, Mat Latos, Jose Quintana, Chris Heston, Eddie Butler, Matt Garza
3. GB / FB Splits
The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.
You have a lot of choices with this particular split today. A few of my favorites include:
Jordy Mercer and Josh Harrison @ Josh Collmenter
Freddie Freeman @ Aaron Harang
Mike Zunino and Kyle Seager vs. Phil Hughes
Geovany Soto vs. Dan Duffy
Jose Abreu, Miguel Cabrera, and J.D. Martinez also come out on the right side of the splits today. Of course, they cost a LOT of money to roster.
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Simon, Danks, Davis, De Aza
Pitchers to Start: There is a (probably) temporary shortage of viable streaming options. If you don’t mind passing on strikeouts, Alfredo Simon is a decent pick. He’ll pitch at home against the Indians. Simon doesn’t have big splits, so he should do alright against the Indians’ very left-handed lineup.
Also consider: Edinson Volquez, Daniel Norris
Pitchers to Exploit: John Danks is a mess these days. He’s not likely to last in the rotation much longer. The southpaw is pumping 88 mph gas with a tiny 11 percent strikeout rate. The Royals have quite a few right-handed hitters to try against Danks.
Also consider: Scott Feldman, Kendall Graveman, Tom Koehler, David Buchanan, Jorge de la Rosa, Colby Lewis
Hitters (power): Ike Davis is hitting .340/.404/.480. So long as the A’s keep hiding him from left-handed pitchers, I see little reason why he couldn’t provide a reliable .280/.340/.440. Since the Pirates started platooning him last year, his whiff rate has been in free fall. He’s only swung through 3.8 percent of pitches this year.
Also consider: Conor Gillaspie, John Mayberry, Luis Valbuena, Colby Rasmus, Logan Forsythe, Travis Snider, Trevor Plouffe
Hitters (speed): Alejandro De Aza usually leads off for the Orioles against right-handed pitchers. Justin Masterson is a classic example of a right-handed pitcher.
Also consider: Paulo Orlando
5. The Factor Grid
The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.
The White Sox game is the most likely to be affected by rain.
The Link. On the one hand, there are a lot of green stadiums in play today. On the other hand, the weather conditions are not good. Do with that as you will.
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This question is copied from someone else on a previous post, and I would love to hear the answer. I know you didn’t actually put OPS numbers in today, but I am still curious. Thanks!
“Is the GB/FB splits data used for hitter OPS take into accountability the batter’s OPS vs Lefty/righty or just the hitter’s OPS in general? Thanks.”
Could have sworn I answered that. Sometimes I forget to hit post 🙂
Anyway, no, it’s just general OPS by the one split. If you split both ways you’ll probably end up with too small a sample.
Even if it would be too small to take anything meaningful from it, it would help in a broader sense in that we see how hitters with this advantage stacked onto a handed ness advantage do overall. If it’s even more significant than without the handedness added on, we could then play the guys on the list with the lefty righty matchup and feel even more confidant with our picks.
Is there any way we COULD get it more broken down?
Check the link, handedness is noted.
Brad,
If its just the OPS on Fly balls why is it so different when I run the batted ball splits on Fangraphs? Take Jose Abreu for example. Based on the spreadsheet he has a fbOPS of 1.002. Based on the player page split its 1.683.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=15676&position=1B&season=0&split=3.2
I am sure I am missing something but I can’t understand what it is.
That’s a split of his OPS on all fly balls HIT. What we’re seeing above is his OPS against FB pitchers.
Knew it was something! Figured there was no way it could be that easy…
Jeff does some kind of heavy lifting in the database to get those numbers. I’m working on getting access from Appelman so I can take it off Jeff’s plate.
I know handedness is noted, but it doesn’t say if there’s an even greater advantage when you have the gb/fb advantage on top of the handedness advantage. I assume there would be, but if possible confirmation would be great
You can assume an additional advantage. I can’t speak to the scale or scope of said advantage.
Thanks brad!
Considering that Smyly is only 25 years old and had a 1.28 ERA, 0.64 WHIP, and a 38:9 K to BB ratio in his last 6 starts spanning 42.33 innings, many fantasy analysts had a lot more than just ‘some mild hope’ regarding his 2015 prospects…
Brad,
I value your SP advice as I evaluate a few early underachievers Fiers and Paxton.
There is potential help on waivers in Pomeranz (attractive in points format with his SP/RP dual elig). Hammel and Buchholz and Latos were also dropped to the trash heap in our 14 team H2H points league.
Would you stick with Pax and Fiers or are my waiver options preferable in your opinion?
Thanks!
Qualitatively, these are all similar pitchers. You could justify any combination of them. It’s a cop out answer, but it’s hard to find a compelling reason to prefer one over another. The solution may lie in your specific points format.
I don’t feel strongly about any of them.
I think at this point it would be safe of you to cut ties with Fiers; despite never loving Paxton personally as a prospect, I think it is too soon to cut ties with him; given his ballpark and the team he pitches for.
Fiers is pitching for a dead in the water team this year, and I have always been hesitant of his velocity; despite his K-Rates.
I’d let go of Fiers and probably latch onto Buchholz; mainly due to his K-rate and his low FIP.
Hard not to like Carlos Martinez tonight. His struggles have typically come against quality lefties, although I think he improves on that this year, and the Brewers power is right handed heavy.
For his price I’d say he’s probably the best value of the night.
How deep into the game do you think he can go though? Does he have the repertoire and stamina to turn over a lineup 3 times? I like him tonight too, just have some nagging doubts.
He’s been pretty efficient as of late – under 90 pitches through 6 last outing. You have to figure the Cards will continue to up the pitch count. I see 7 easy innings tonight.
I’m having a hard time understanding the weather factors in your table. If the Yankees’ factor is “1 to 0,” shouldn’t that be bad weather for hitting? If so, then why is that cell shaded green?
The weather factor is just a small portion of the stadium rating for today. The weather is indeed terrible for home runs, but the stadium is excellent for power. My best guess is that the end result is still HR friendly.
I just had a thought, in tourney’s I almost think it would be good to look at the picks on different daily sites, and avoid those players, other then the picks you really like. Since you would want to have any (if you don’t have him your not winning today guys), but for the most part getting points without the heavily picked players gives you a much better chance of placing highly in a tourney.