The Daily Grind: GPPs, Harang, Simon

Agenda

1. DFS Tournament Strategy
2. Daily DFS – Harang and Smyly
3. GB / FB Splits
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Simon, Danks, Davis, De Aza
5. Factor Grid

1. DFS Tournament Strategy

Yesterday we discussed DFS cash games. Interestingly, there is more debate about the proper way to build a cash game lineup than I realized. Those I’ve talked to have sworn up and down that they almost never roster more than two players from the same team. However, at least one of the commenters yesterday advocated a four player stack as a means of increasing both expected floor and ceiling.

Tournament strategy is a little easier. You’re chasing ceiling, so feel free to cut loose with a Chris Carter or Pedro Alvarez if you like the matchup. Their ability to bop two home runs with six RBI on a given day can make or break a roster.

Stacking is the most common approach to tournaments. FanDuel let’s you pick four players from one lineup. Usually, you can land a full stack plus a mini two or three player stack from another game. DraftKings caps at six hitters from a single team.

In certain formats, it can make sense to zig by chasing the best values regardless of team. The FanDuel Squeeze is often won by an owner without a notable stack. I consider this a situational strategy – most days you’ll want to stack.

It still makes sense to roster a few cheap players filling important roles. When a bench guy is plugged into the two-hole, he’s almost automatically a valuable asset.

Like hitters, selecting a pitcher is all about ceiling and opportunity cost. I generally target the cheapest pitcher who could reasonably be expected to post an excellent outing. On FanDuel, that’s around 18 points. I’m looking for over 27 points on DraftKings.

For example, I used Clay Buchholz in a tournament yesterday. I would never select him in a cash game. You’ll still occasionally pay for a top pitcher.

2. Daily DFS – Harang and Smyly

Yesterday’s Grind

For the second straight season, Aaron Harang is off to a quick start. He’s accrued 0.4 WAR in three starts. While that doesn’t really mean anything, the Phillies’ offense and pitching staff has compiled 0.3 WAR. Yep, in at least one limited sense, Harang has been more valuable than all other Phillies combined. Even Ryan Howard.

Harang is a decent pitcher, but he looks like a 4.00 ERA guy. The Phillies should receive a decent prospect for him later this year, but fantasy owners needn’t jump on the bandwagon. However, he’ll face a terrible Braves offense today. It should be a low scoring game.

After acquiring Drew Smyly in the David Price trade, the Rays tinkered with his pitch usage. The result left fantasy analysts with some mild hope about his 2015 prospects. He returns to action today against the Blue Jays. Jose Bautista will be out of the lineup, but the Jays still have a bunch of right-handed hitters who can mash lefties. It’s a good day to take a pass on Smyly.

Stack Targets: Miguel Gonzalez, Mat Latos, Jose Quintana, Chris Heston, Eddie Butler, Matt Garza

3. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

You have a lot of choices with this particular split today. A few of my favorites include:

Jordy Mercer and Josh Harrison @ Josh Collmenter
Freddie Freeman @ Aaron Harang
Mike Zunino and Kyle Seager vs. Phil Hughes
Geovany Soto vs. Dan Duffy

Jose Abreu, Miguel Cabrera, and J.D. Martinez also come out on the right side of the splits today. Of course, they cost a LOT of money to roster.

4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Simon, Danks, Davis, De Aza

Pitchers to Start: There is a (probably) temporary shortage of viable streaming options. If you don’t mind passing on strikeouts, Alfredo Simon is a decent pick. He’ll pitch at home against the Indians. Simon doesn’t have big splits, so he should do alright against the Indians’ very left-handed lineup.

Also consider: Edinson Volquez, Daniel Norris

Pitchers to Exploit: John Danks is a mess these days. He’s not likely to last in the rotation much longer. The southpaw is pumping 88 mph gas with a tiny 11 percent strikeout rate. The Royals have quite a few right-handed hitters to try against Danks.

Also consider: Scott Feldman, Kendall Graveman, Tom Koehler, David Buchanan, Jorge de la Rosa, Colby Lewis

Hitters (power): Ike Davis is hitting .340/.404/.480. So long as the A’s keep hiding him from left-handed pitchers, I see little reason why he couldn’t provide a reliable .280/.340/.440. Since the Pirates started platooning him last year, his whiff rate has been in free fall. He’s only swung through 3.8 percent of pitches this year.

Also consider: Conor Gillaspie, John Mayberry, Luis Valbuena, Colby Rasmus, Logan Forsythe, Travis Snider, Trevor Plouffe

Hitters (speed): Alejandro De Aza usually leads off for the Orioles against right-handed pitchers. Justin Masterson is a classic example of a right-handed pitcher.

Also consider: Paulo Orlando

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The White Sox game is the most likely to be affected by rain.

The Link. On the one hand, there are a lot of green stadiums in play today. On the other hand, the weather conditions are not good. Do with that as you will.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.