The Daily Grind: Friar Power?

One, Two, Three, FOURTEEN!

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. CC ain’t about it

1.The Daily Grind Invitational

mmddyyyy walked away with one of the lowest scoring wins of the year. Hidden Morton and a solo-owned Mike Yastrzemski triple-donger supplied most of the oomph. Congrats and Leaderboard.

We have a nine-game shindig on FantasyDraft.

If you have not signed up for FantasyDraft, please use this referral link for tracking purposes. If I understand properly, by using the referral, you will receive a 10 percent return on any rakes you pay.

2. Weather Reports

Good.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

The Padres are quite prone to right-handed pitchers, so I suppose I understand why Trevor Bauer costs ($23,000). He could easily pile up double-digit strikeouts. I also worry about Friar Power* at Great American Ballpark. Eric Lauer ($15,000) is often a viable bargain play, but he’s priced bafflingly high tonight.

*Is this not a thing? I’ve never heard it before, and it seems so obvious.

Speaking of baffling prices, I know the Tigers are really bad. $21,300 for Wade Miley is still some kind of insanity. He’s very likely to record a quality start tonight, but facing Detroit won’t do anything to help his tepid strikeout rate. We’re looking at a healthy 15 to 19 points which is great for this slate if you happen to have spare cash. It’s also a poor value.

Marco Gonzales ($20,200) is on a roll. The Rays are mildly prone to left-handed pitchers. This is still yet another piece of insanity. Gonzales may have more strikeout ability than Miley, but he’s also a threat to completely implode. After all, he did allow 11 hits to the lowly Tigers just last week. On the flip side is a hidden Brendan McKay ($14,800) who has nearly all the attributes of Bauer, a far better price, and a comparably exploitable matchup. I’m confident this will be the top value play when we crack open the simulator.

Ivan Nova ($16,200) has stopped allowing runs. A careful look at his peripherals reveals no change. That doesn’t mean the current version of Nova isn’t any better than the previous auto-stack disastermonger. At his best, Nova’s command allows his stuff to play up beyond his peripherals. I think we’re seeing one of those “at his best” moments. That said, I’ll have to hard pass against the homertastic Twins. As for Kyle Gibson ($19,600), I wish he costs $1,500 less. He’s on the expensive edge of par value against a strikeout prone, volatile White Sox lineup.

Kolby Allard ($18,500) has some dark horse potential tonight against the L.A. Trout due to solid stuff and some strikeout upside. He needs to be $14,500 to be a serious consideration. You have to be drowning in leftover cash and looking to be very contrarian to fire up Allard. Dillon Peters ($17,700) has turned in some solid outings against tough opponents lately. I’m not rushing to the wire or anything, but I’m starting to think he’s a passable ground balling southpaw. Like Allard, you have to feel contrarian to find a spot for him tonight.

The reason you’re not using Allard or Peters is because Zac Gallen ($18,000) can be had at the same price point. He’s hosting the sea level rockies – arguably the worst non-Marlin/Tiger offense. Expect six or more frames with over a strikeout per inning. If you’re looking to be cheeky, Kyle Freeland has looked a little more like his old self lately. He’s only $10,000 so it won’t take much to turn a profit.

Freeland’s part of a dangerous basket of deplorables today. Joe Ross is coming off a series of a strong outings against mostly weak opponents. A new curve ball could explain the improved results. Or maybe he’s just found himself in favorable settings. A visit to PNC Park is another such setting. John Means ($12,800) sometimes looks like a mid-tier quality pitcher. Lately, he’s failed to finish four frames. The Royals offer a low-owned rebound opportunity. Last and least is Zach Davies ($8,500) who is 1. bad and 2. not this bad. He’s just as likely to turn in an 18 point outing as he is to fail to reach 10 points.

Favorite Plays: McKay, Gallen, Davies, Ross

Stack Targets: Lauer, Kyle Freeland, Edwin Jackson, Jorge Lopez

4. SaberSim Says…

Miley, Bauer, McKay, Gallen, and Gibson are the top-rated pitchers. Interestingly, the Sim thinks Miley’s price is spot on. McKay, Davies, Miley, Trevor Williams, and Bauer are the “bargain” plays. By our usual standards, only McKay and Davies are actually inexpensive relative to their projection. Our favorite machine doesn’t know about Ross’s new pitch usage.

You want hitters? Try Mike Trout, Yordan Alvarez, Christian Yelich, Aristides Aquino, or Jorge Soler. Remember when Aquino was a must-play bargain? Ah, the good ol’ days. Josh Rojas, Trent Grisham, Ryan O’Hearn, Ty France, and D.J. Stewart offer the most value.

5.CC ain’t about it

The statline has an had unsustainable look to it all year long, yet Rafi Devers can’t stop, won’t stop.

CC Sabathia isn’t about this.

Remember when Garrett Hampson was the darling of draft season? Here’s him hitting a clutch usually-fly-out.