The Daily Grind: Frank About Franco

Tomorrow is Thin Thursday, an important day for dusting off the ol’ waiver wire. Streaming Wars covers six pitchers along with a couple power hitters and speedsters.

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. Franco Analysis

1. The Daily Grind Invitational

Congrats to bigwig500 for winning with a deeply weird roster. He was the only owner of four of his hitters. Of those, Victor Martinez and Eddie Rosario delivered. Jose Berrios provided the biggest spark. Leaderboard.

We have a fun opportunity tonight – a 52 entry, $2 no rake GPP on FantasyDraft. That’s the normal part. The fun is the contest size combined with a tiny four game slate. Typically, this leads to big overlays. I also find small contests to be far less dominated by luck.

If you have not signed up for FantasyDraft, please use this referral link for tracking purposes. If I understand properly, by using the referral, you will receive a 10 percent return on any rakes you pay.

2. Weather Reports

Storm risk exists in New York, Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Colorado. Per this report I’m looking at, Denver has a 70 percent chance of storms from 6:00pm to 9:00pm MT. They kinda need to get this game in against the Astros so look for them to avoid a postponement if at all possible.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Main Slate: Most of the action is this afternoon. Trevor Bauer ($25,400) is the only ace-priced asset. He’s probably the best combination of floor and ceiling too. He’ll face the Pirates. Notably, other cheaper pitchers have his floor and/or ceiling. Jameson Taillon ($15,000) is once again underpriced. This time, it’s because he’s visiting the best pitcher in the slate. Dollar for dollar, Taillon is a great value.

Jack Flaherty ($17,700) can put together big games, but I’d steer clear against the Reds at Great American Ballpark. Instead, I have my eye on Walker Buehler in his second start since returning from the disabled list. The Dodgers need him to go six or seven innings after a marathon game in Philadelphia last night.

The Tigers and Royals feature terrible lineups. Thus it makes sense to trade Danny Duffy ($15,600) or Matt Boyd ($13,700). Robbie Ray is visiting Jon Lester and the wind is blowing… in. Mildly. How unexciting.

My bargain target is Clayton Richard ($11,800). He could easily fire seven solid innings versus the Mets while earning a win. He should receive run support. Corey Oswalt ($11,000) is usually an auto-exploit, but it wouldn’t surprise me if you tossed five innings with seven strikeouts. After all, he’s facing the Padres.

Stack Targets: Oswalt, Sal Romano, Luis Cessa, Nate Eovaldi, Tanner Roark, Jake Arrieta

Yep, I don’t care for Arrieta against the Dodgers. Not one bit.

Late Slate: We’re playing the tiny four-game night slate. Good luck picking pitchers. Tyler Skaggs ($19,700) is hosting James Shields ($11,900). I anticipate using one or the other. Skaggs is pitching above his head. He should still be viewed as an above average starter with a favorable matchup. If anything, he’s underpriced.

Speaking of price, David Price is priced to move at $18,500. The Orioles lineup is el terrible. Dylan Bundy ($12,800) cries for our attention despite a tough matchup. Bundy has faced Boston four times, posting point totals of -3, 17, 17, and 29.

The Coors Field game is imperiled. Pitchers are especially risky at this time of day. Charlie Morton ($16,700) and Jon Gray ($14,400) are potential top performers. Gray has to overcome a tough Astros lineup while Morton has an easier path to value.

Stack Targets: Edwin Jackson, Martin Perez, Shields

That A’s-Rangers game could be another high scoring affair.

4. SaberSim Says…

Since we’re playing the night slate, let’s focus there. Skaggs, Morton, Price, Gray, and Bundy are the top rated pitchers. Morton and Bundy are the value kings. Mike Trout, Joey Gallo, Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, and Shin-Soo Choo rank among the best bats. Surprisingly, no Astros at Coors Field! Bargain hunters may like Adrian Beltre, Gallo, and Chad Pinder.

5. Franco Analysis

Entering the season, I said many things. One of those was that Maikel Franco would eventually pull an Edwin Encarnacion. Not necessarily this year. Someday. I also said I would only rarely link to my Patreon page. Turns out I’m too vain to keep that promise. I want to know people read my work.

Anyway, since mid-June, Franco is batting .340/.389/.620 with seven home runs in 108 plate appearances. It’s happening… Oh. Belay that. It’s not happening.