The Daily Grind: Five “Aces”

Despite missing a couple weeks for various reasons, there will be a chat this afternoon at 4:00pm ET.

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. Huh?

1.The Daily Grind Invitational

Surprisingly, the only roster to include Eduardo Escobar’s 44-point performance did not win. Instead iamlee13 carried off the victory with the help of a bunch of ~20 point hitters. He even skipped Chris Sale. Congrats and Leaderboard.

We have a full 15-game slate tonight on FantasyDraft.

If you have not signed up for FantasyDraft, please use this referral link for tracking purposes. If I understand properly, by using the referral, you will receive a 10 percent return on any rakes you pay.

2. Weather Reports

Rain could muck about with the Mariners-Twins game, but the risk of anything worse than a delay is minimal.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

As with any big slate, there’s a lot going on with this one. Luis Castillo ($20,700) is most-expensive for a visit to Trevor Bauer ($19,400). Castillo’s price is fine although I’m not convinced he’s the best pitcher available today. Bauer has labored lately which could serve to depress his ownership. Castillo might also be lightly owned due to the available of cheaper, comparable substitutes.

Chris Paddack ($20,300) strikes me as the type of pitcher whose outcomes don’t change much based on the quality of opponent. Either he has a feel for his stuff that day, or he doesn’t. Then again, recent evidence suggests otherwise. In his last five starts he struggled against the Dodgers, Yankees, and Phillies while carving through the Mets and Diamondbacks. In any case, he’ll face the Giants. Your decision to use him at Oracle Park depends on how greatly you think the San Fran offense will aid him.

Patrick Corbin ($19,400) has to be the chalky play tonight. He’s in Chicago to face the high strikeout, low walk White Sox. He should receive plentiful run support. Double-digit strikeouts with a win bonus are on the table.

James Paxton ($19,300) has failed to reach five innings in three straight starts. The Yankees are carefully managing his workload. The Mets rate as one of the top offenses against left-handed pitching, but I don’t really understand how they’ve pulled it off. As far as I can tell, they should be prone to southpaws. Personally, I’m going to proceed as if they’re a 90 wRC+ offense tonight.

Kenta Maeda ($18,600) is a good mid-tier pitcher priced like a bad ace. Put another way, he doesn’t quite have enough juice to justify the squeeze. Or in plainer english, I’d like him more if he cost $17,500. The Angels don’t strike out enough.

Spencer Turnbull ($16,900) has proven to be a reliable source of strikeouts. Despite the tepid Detroit lineup, he should receive run support opposite the Royals and Jakob Junis.

Mike Foltynewicz has recovered from a bout of poor command. He looks like a sharp mid-tier play for $16,400. The Braves will host Chris Archer ($16,200) and the Pirates. Archer recently pronounced himself back on track. He’s reeled off two very strong starts in a row including one against these same Braves.

Trent Thornton ($13,800) is a budget version of Turnbull. Expect a healthy strikeout rate against the lowly Orioles with otherwise volatile outcomes. Jose Quintana ($13,100) appears to be slightly over-discounted for his visit to Coors Field.

Elieser Hernandez ($10,000) is getting his first big league start of the season. While I have my share of doubts, it’s worth nothing he recorded a 1.13 ERa (2.10 FIP, 4.05 xFIP) with 12.94 K/9 and 2.63 BB/9 in 48 Triple-A innings. The Cardinals are a difficult opponent, but at least he’s pitching in the friendly confines of Marlins Stadium. Dakota Hudson ($12,100) also looks like an easy bargain play.

It’s Jalen Beeks ($14,900) day in Tampa. Too bad he costs way too much.

Favorite Plays: Corbin, Bauer, Folty, Hernandez

Stack Targets: Manny Banuelos, Jason Vargas, Felix Pena, Jakob Junis, Peter Lambert, Jon Duplantier

4. SaberSim Says…

Corbin, Paxton, Bauer, Jake Arrieta, and Junis (???) are the top projected arms. I know the Tigers are bad, but I’m really not feeling over six innings, six strikeouts, and 40 percent of a win for Junis. Hernandez, Junis, Arrieta, Thornton, and Corbin are the preferred bargains.

Apparently, draft Cubs hitters at Coors Field. Javy Baez, Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, J.D. Martinez, and Anthony Rizzo carry the top projections. Jack Mayfield, Danny Jansen, Yordan Alvarez, Travis Shaw, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are the value plays.

5.Huh?

I suppose I should start with this clip since it’s so 2019.

MLB.com calls this a “great” glove flip. I think the word I’d use is “lucky.” Also, another home run because we can’t even have fielding highlights with home runs involved.

I don’t know what happened in this one. Did Musgrove chirp Donaldson for not getting out of the way of the ball? If I was the pitcher, I’d be pretty mad about a merely inside pitch resulting in a free pass. As a hitter, I’d be tickled to draw a walk with nothing more than a bruise to my uniform. There obviously wasn’t intent.