Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 6/11/2019

Brad Johnson: Hey folks, we’ll get this kicked off in a few moments. I need a quick snack first.

Hanser and Hansest: Hiya! Yarborough has been (mostly) better since his demotion. Would you trust him vs. the Angels this week (al only league)?

Brad Johnson: First, my occasional plug of “Players Aren’t Trustworthy”

Brad Johnson: “Players aren’t things to be trusted. All you can do is manage them such that they’re in the best possible positions to succeed. In roto and points-based formats, it’s easier to take the long view. Every player comes with lumps, but they usually even out over the course of 162 games. Sale had a couple rocky starts and missed time late in the season. He also posted a 2.11 ERA and 237 strikeouts in 158 innings. His owners got what they paid for.”

Brad Johnson: https://www.patreon.com/posts/players-arent-21821938 – full post

Brad Johnson: I do think you can use Yarbrough in AL Only. Just expect a bland outing.

Knat: Adam Eaton seems very replacable this year…has he become exposed now that he’s actually been healthy enough to get a book on him?

Brad Johnson: I disagree, He’s having a nice season and has a pretty decent shot at 15 HR, 15 SB, a. 280 AVG, and 100 R

Brad Johnson: I think that Nats offense will start to click and bit more too which will only help his run production

PAL: Is Soto + Kyle Gibson a fair return for Gioloto + Mazara? 12 team  redraft (5×5 + OPS & holds)

Brad Johnson: Would love to be getting the Soto side. Huge win in my opinion.

bryan: Is Frankie Montas a top 30 arm ROS?

Brad Johnson: I don’t track rankings, but I suspect yes.

Orbit: Outlook on Tapia ROS?

Brad Johnson: Typical good fourth outfielder + Coors Field.

Brad Johnson: I don’t see any reason for the Rockies to play him over Blackmon/Dahl/Desmond

Future Ranger: Is Clint Frazier just in audition mode until everyone’s healthy and he gets traded for pitching?

Brad Johnson: It’s possible, but only in a perfect swap. I think the Yankees prefer to have ludicrous depth. And their outfield isn’t exactly a healthy group over the last year-plus.

Guest: Sano for Peacock in a standard 12 team 5×5, who says no?

Brad Johnson: Seems a reasonable challenge trade

Brad Johnson:

Ken: What are you doing with Jo-Ram in 12-team redraft leagues? Would you trade him for Benintendi (or similar)?

Brad Johnson: A swap at that level is reasonable, but I’m mostly still trying to acquire Ramirez shares.

Mike: Looking to upgrade my OF in a 14tm H2H league, I just offered up Jack Flaherty/Josh Reddick for Andrew Benintendi, do you think its enough?

Brad Johnson: Should be. Flaherty’s are much harder to find than Benintendi’s

howdy: I just agreed to my G Cole, S Gray, and J Donaldson for his Bauer, Moncada, and Bieber (Contingent on Moncada not hitting DL). 12 TM OBP/QS(instead of wins) league where I was lacking pitching depth (Cole,Gray,Giolito,Kikuchi,Darvish pre trade). Do you think I couldve gotten more for cole?

Brad Johnson: Probably, but only with a lot of effort. Sometimes it’s better to accomplish a goal rather than drag things out for a month digging for the best value.

Brad Johnson: I say that as somebody who always tries to squeeze the last drops out of every asset.

Colin Poche: Colin Poche is up for the Rays and has brought his swing-and-miss stuff with him. Given his eye-popping K/9 numbers in the minors, could he potentially be a Hader-lite?

Brad Johnson: It’s probably a little early to get too emphatic, but if you’re in a league where it makes sense to use non-closers with crazy K-rates, then Poche should be rostered.

Brian: $3 Hunter Dozier for $3 Mallex Smith in Ottoneu 5×5 lg thoughts?

Brad Johnson: Depends on team needs.

Brad Johnson: I like Dozier a lot more than Mallex, but those 40+ SBs are very valuable.

Indians Fan: Framber Valdez or Zach Plesac for the rest of the season?

Brad Johnson: I’m more convinced Plesac will get regular turns.

Brad Johnson: I think I like Framber a tad more in terms of repertoire and expected results.

Brad Johnson: Overall, I’d bet Plesac by a narrow margin.

Brad Johnson:

Snowy: Hold on LeClerc? Upside plus the contract makes me think he’ll be closing again soon

Brad Johnson: Yes, they said he would close soon about 2 weeks ago. He’s pitched reasonably well even though there have been a couple negative blips.

Brad Johnson: Recently that is. Obviously he was trash early on.

Mike: Brad – thanks as always for your time. How much faith do you have in Christian Walker being a reliable source of value in the coming years? I’m rebuilding in a 20-team, 5×5 (w/OBP) keeper league w/$260 cap and am considering trading my Hector Neris + Justin Smoak (expiring) for a $2 Walker that I’d have for the next two seasons.

Brad Johnson: I do not think Walker will finish 2019 as a MLB regular let alone have future value.

Brad Johnson: I would look for other targets.

Al Gone Quinn: Stanek has been a good opener for me in Ottoneu league. Is Bedrosian worthwhile to pick up as a 2nd opener?

Brad Johnson: Not a bad idea. What I like about Stanek is that he makes a lot of Opener appearances so you can just stuff him in a SP slot. Bedrosian might not open enough to justify the roster spot long term.

Tom: What on Earth should I do with Puig? 12-team H2H categories.

Brad Johnson: Hang on or, if you find something you believe to be an upgrade, don’t fret about moving on

Brad Johnson: Puig’s skill set is fairly common

Pie Eaton Contest: At what point does Polanco’s breakout become real enough and Machado K issues concerning enough that you’d have them similar ROS? End of June, ASB, never???

Brad Johnson: This requires some squinting…

Brad Johnson: I’ll be back

Brad Johnson: Maybe ASB?

Brad Johnson: Machado’s always had these ebbs and flows although the Ks are sort of new.

Brad Johnson: Polanco regression is also a risk. Although I happen to REALLY like Polanco. I picked him as a 30 HR threat early in the year.

Thanks: Hey brad would you trade clevinger and murphy for trevor bauer right now, fantasy help only for this season

Brad Johnson: Yes

ttttttt: Was banking on Segura for steals but seems like that’s not a Kapler method. What’s his value without steals?

Brad Johnson: good source of AVG and runs. Kind of like Adam Eaton but without the extra OBP juice

Ken: Marco Gonzales droppable in 12-teamers?

Brad Johnson: Yes, he was always a streamer. A good one.

KCron: If you do not think Walker will finish as a regular, I assume you are long on Kevin Cron?

Brad Johnson: I like Cron. And remember Jake Lamb is a person who exists too.

Matt: Peter Lambert:
1) Is he going to get a few starts to show his stuff?
2) Does he have much “stuff” to show?

Brad Johnson: I wrote Lambert up as a deep league target on rotoworld. I came away pretty unconvinced. I basically said, “use him in favorable sea level matchups”

Brad Johnson: I think he’d be in the same asset class as Trent Thornton without Coors Field ruining half his starts

Brad Johnson: I do think he’ll get a decent shot of action.

Matt: You expecting Huira back anytime soon? I need some more power, and there’s nothing on the wire…thinking my best option is a stash, but there’s a limited bench.

Brad Johnson: It’s a really hard read tbh.

Brad Johnson: The Brewers, I’m sure, would love to get normal Travis Shaw back

Brad Johnson: Hiura was a strikeout and whiff disaster despite getting away with it.

Brad Johnson: The club is better off with 2018 Shaw than Hiura. They also can’t afford to be too patient waiting for a good Shaw to return.

Brad Johnson: Near as I can tell, whatever was mysteriously wrong with Shaw earlier this season wasn’t magically solved over his injury layoff.

Lyon: Is Kole Calhoun suddenly an acceptable starting OF in 14 team?

Brad Johnson: Suddenly as of like August 2018…

O’s Nose: B-rad from the bu!  How would you rank Plesac, Valdez and Duplantier ROS in roto format?

Brad Johnson: You’ve got it already.

Brad Johnson: Same asset class

Prison Mike: You’re a bot

Brad Johnson: Can’t stop the bot

Now we know: Time to move on from Straw at SS (24 starting SS in the league, no reserves)?

Brad Johnson: Uh, yes.

Brad Johnson: The SBs are lovely, but there’s not a lot of playing time in his future.

KB: Would Bell/Tatis get somebody like Freeman in an OPS league in your opinion? Looking to sell high on Bell.

Brad Johnson: Probably not

Brad Johnson: And at the same time, I’d rather have Bell and Tatis

Dave: Jimmy Nelson worth a bench spot in redraft league, looking for a good second half?

Brad Johnson: Yes, definitely can stash him

Pottsy: Is Zach Plesac the next big Indians arm?

Brad Johnson: I don’t think so. He looks like he’ll be quietly competent.

Sicnarf Loopstok: Who do you expect more out of ROS as a power/speed threat; Kiermaier or Laureano?

Brad Johnson: Laureano

Brad Johnson: (he’s also heating up)

Goldy’s Lumber: Hi Brad, thank you for the chats!

Brad Johnson: You’re welcome!

Chris: Hey bro trying my best to kill the wire, plesac fried, canning  are available how do you rank em

Brad Johnson: I don’t know their upcoming matchups offhand. Investigate those to see if any have a squishy schedule.

Brad Johnson: I like Canning most and Fried least.

dezre: Is it time to get ahead of the trend and start dropping Lorenzo Cain for a more promising OF like Bryan Reynolds? Cain is 33, not running, declining exit velo, etc. But where most analysts may advise “hold,” aren’t there enough signs there to drop/trade him and move on?

Brad Johnson: Depends on league depth. Also, if we’re getting ahead of things, Corey Dickerson’s been chilling in Triple-A for awhile. He has to be activated soon at which point he’ll play. Partially at Reynolds’ expense.

Brad Johnson: Mostly even

Tom: Do you see Mackenzie Gore making a Jose Fernandez like jump from A ball to the majors? He’s absolutely dominating and they have yet to promote him to AA

Brad Johnson: No, but the Padres have proven completely inured to doing things by the book

Brad Johnson: I think the thing that will prevent them from doing this is their 40-man roster.

Brad Johnson: By aggressively promoting and evaluating some other guys (like Margevicius), they’re now a little clogged with young players who aren’t quite good and also shouldn’t be discarded.

Brad Johnson: If memory serves, Alex Dickerson was their last easy cut.

Brad Johnson: I’ll take a look because I’m curious…

Brad Johnson: ok, they need a spot for Jose Castillo at some point. Their next line of cuts are Adam Warren, Ty France, Greg Garcia, Javy Guerra, Ian Kinsler, and Jose Pirela

Brad Johnson: Soooo, yes, they could find some room for Gore. I think they have to feel really good about a playoff push.

Brad Johnson: They’re firmly in the WC mix so why not…

Goldy’s Lumber: Any hope that Mookie starts looking more like his 2018 self instead of 2017ish?

Brad Johnson: Hope? Sure.

Brad Johnson: I wouldn’t bet money on it, but we know for certain it’s in the range of plausible outcomes.

Matt: At this point in the season, its kinda crazy to think that I can content from a fluctuating 8th-11th place in 12-team roto, even if Altuve & Stanton come back healthy and quickly, and Cain picks it up to a top 75 player, right? Time to sell?

Brad Johnson: Winning the league is probably a bit of a pipe dream, although that really depends on a lot of factors I don’t have access to. However, if you stick with it, you may have a shot at 2nd or 3rd.

Tim: Is there any hope to hold Maikel Franco in a 12 team, deep bench, keep forever dynasty league?

Brad Johnson: I think it makes sense to roster him in that format. And I’d be hoping the Phillies finally discard him. Desperately needs a change of scenery. He’s still fairly young and has some nice skills at his disposal. Just hasn’t been able to make them work.

Matt: Do you see Cavan Biggio as a MLB-ready fantasy relevant starter for 2019? Or should I try to cash in on upside and trade him in dynasty?

Brad Johnson: I’d hold him

Brad Johnson: I see shades of Alex Bregman in his stats.

Brad Johnson: Obviously, the scouting report is much less gushing

Brad Johnson: But there’s potential for home runs, some SBs, and plate discipline

Scott: They say the stats don’t normalize until Mike Trout is the WAR leader.  That just happened today

pokavajda: Competing for a title, strapped for BA, time to move on from Michael Chavis? Even w/o Petey looming, I’m wondering if he’s sent down when Moreland is healthy.

Brad Johnson: Chavis’ success caught me flatfooted. I was so certain he’d bomb.

Brad Johnson: So this slump makes a lot of sense to me. A demotion is definitely possible, although I think it will come after Pedroia is both healthy and producing.

Tim: What do you make of Astudillo?  Such high hopes for him.

Brad Johnson: Still a joy to watch. He’s 6-for-8 with a walk and a homer since returning to Triple-A.

Brad Johnson: He’ll be back at some point.

Brad Johnson: The fantasy utility was always questionable.

Brad Johnson: Easy to dream on a high average from the C-slot, but a low BABIP was always a risk.

Matt: Time to cut bait with Kikuchi in a weekly lineup league (QS)? He’s got some real tantalizing starts peppered into a bunch of horse crap.

Brad Johnson: I might try to trade him, but I find him too frustrating to bother owning him

Brad Johnson: I also auto-skip him in DFS.

Ryan: Have an offer to acquire Nola for J Polanco in a 12 team 5×5 OBP, QS league. I could use a replacement for Carrasco and I have Lindor at SS (Polanco has been in the utilities spot). What do you think? Fair value for Polanco?

Brad Johnson: It’s a bold risk. Nola has to rebound for this to work out

Brad Johnson: There’s maybe a 20% chance Nola rebounds, Polanco regresses, and you come out looking like a genius

Brad Johnson: And probably a 35% or so that they stay about the same and you got an expensive Kevin Gausman

Do You Wanna Build A Stroman?: If you could manage a fantasy pitcher perfectly and avoid their negative starts, who would have the highest boost in value?

Brad Johnson: This is a fun question… any submissions?

Brad Johnson: Tanaka comes immediately to mind

ROBOCOP: Had Judge stayed healthy, he would have ___ home runs right now…. Over/Under 18.5?

Brad Johnson: Under, barely.

Brad Johnson: like 16

baseballdude: is luke jackson someone i can continue to start at RP until glasnow is back?  12 team H2H points league and glasnow is RP/SP eligible.  got vazquez as my other RP.

Brad Johnson: Yes, I like Jackson

baseballdude: can my SP rotation of berrios, bieber, marquez, giolito, canning, minor, with alex reyes and german/clevinger/glasnow on IL carry me to a title in a 12 team points league?  they feel like all in the same ‘tier’ of SP almost.

Brad Johnson: Yes, but you need to stay on top of looking for upgrades

Brad Johnson: Pitching is such a nightmare this year…

Jake: So Tim Anderson hasnt regressed. All he has changed is going from 73% contact to 79%, and cutting K% from 26% to 19%. Is it possible a 80 point jump in AVG just by that???

Brad Johnson: I know it FEELS like we’ve seen a lot of baseball, but we haven’t.

Brad Johnson: I think a part of it is some terribad pitching staffs in the ALC

Brad Johnson: And the other part of it is some BABIP fortune

Brad Johnson: Notably, Anderson’s quality of contact is pretty terrible.

Matt: Re Huira: Dropping him for Colin Moran, then?

Brad Johnson: That’s quite reasonable.

baseballdude: i had yordan alvarez up until last week and decided to drop since i already have harper, meadows, franmil, eloy, and puig in a 12 team H2H points league.  did i make a mistake holding onto them instead of yordan???

Brad Johnson: Yes. These things happen. I had just mentally given up too, although I didn’t have anywhere it made sense to cut him

Brad Johnson: I figured if the Astros hadn’t called him up with all their studs on the IL, they were committed to it not happening.

JoeyBoomBats: re: the perfectly managed fantasy pitcher – Reynaldo Lopez

Matt: PABLO LOPEZ

David: DJ LeMahieu and Alex Reyes for Flaherty?

Brad Johnson: You’re going to get laughed out of the room if you propose that.

Brad Johnson: But by all means, offer it. Gotta start somewhere.

Brad Johnson: While some of my rivals hate me for it, I see little benefit to opening a trade discussion with a competitive offer.

FrankieBones: If Ohtani is healthy going into spring training, where do you think he gets drafted in standard leagues? He’s always tough to pin down.

Brad Johnson: Higher than I’m willing to take him.

Brad Johnson: In every draft room, there will be somebody willing to bet on him reaching his 75th percentile as a hitter AND as a pitcher.

Brad Johnson: Which would be a fringe 1st round quality return. But it’s also unlikely to happen.

dezre: Kevin Cron’s statcast data, albeit for only 19 batted balls, is kinda insane (31.6% barrel rate, 92.6 mph exit velo, 57.9% hard hit rate). Of course he has a 31% k rate, but with a 9.8% BB rate. You think he’s worth stashing now in a 12 team H2H categories league (OPS, AVG)? His video game #s suggest he deserves the playing time…

Brad Johnson: That league might be a little shallow for stashing him

Brad Johnson: I do want to see him get more action.

Tim: Moustakas is at 20 HRs already and all the FG projections have him hitting 40 on the year.  Does that seem realistic?

Brad Johnson: Yes, given that he’s halfway there in 40% of the season

Angry Bumgardner: Can I trade Muncy away if I have access to Brian Dozier on the wire? Splashdown power is sexy right now

Brad Johnson: That’s a large downgrade.

Brad Johnson: But if you’re profiting in the Muncy trade, then you can surely find a solution to 2B later.

Hyde: Time to let Castellanos go? Bruce, Renfroe, K. Calhoun and Laureano all available.

Brad Johnson: Yes, I’d grab any of them.

Brad Johnson: I’m always the most bearish about Castellanos though.

Brad Johnson: I just don’t see a MLB starter – mostly because of the defense.

Brad Johnson: He’s exactly the sort of player who serves his 6-7 years then disappears immediately

Brad Johnson: As teams realize he’s only interesting if he’s unpaid (i.e. close to minimum)

Brad Johnson: The original team is always the slowest to realize this.

Brad Johnson: If I were running the Tigers, I would have nontendered him.

Brad Johnson: I assume they pursued all possible trade avenues.

Mike: Dynasty, 12-tm, H2H most categories
How much is it worth Wander Franco? I’m about to offer D. German OR Mike Moustakas as an initial offer. Am I crazy?

Brad Johnson: How much bench space do you have?

Brad Johnson: Because he looks like a future monster with a 2022 debut. That’s a LONG wait.

Brad Johnson: In a deeper dynasty, those would be laughably light offers fwiw.

Brad Johnson: There’s not a lot of gray area between the formats where he’s too far away to roster and where he’s worth like Kris Bryant+

baseballdude: who is the better 2b stash for this season only: luis urias or hiura?  who is the better 2b to start now: chavis or brandon lowe?

Brad Johnson: I think Hiura

Brad Johnson: And Lowe

Meal Ticket: Someone once offered me an expiring Darvish contract and a 4th round pick in a deep prospect league for my Soroka on a rookie deal (with the option to sign for 4 more years).  I can’t believe I even entertained a response with that

Brad Johnson: We can revisit that if/when Soroka has his next arm injury. He’s already had what? 3?

Sicnarf Loopstok: What do you expect out of Mitch Haniger when he returns from injury?

Brad Johnson: You mean when he returns from his raptured testicle?

Brad Johnson: I’m unsure if an undead testicle adds to or subtracts from performance.

Brad Johnson: But I also see no reason to expect him to change.

Brad Johnson: He’s a streaky guy

Ryan E: Have a roster crunch coming with IL playeres returning (Giancarlo, Gallo, JUpton, Carrasco, Kuechel)  in Ottoneau style scoring points dynasty league.

Have a lot of SP depth, who are my 3-4 drops I should make to make room. Do I even bring Upton back? My lineup in great shape in OF (Trout, Soto, Blackmon) right now

Ryan E: Here are my bats, for full context.

Brad Johnson: Suarez and Nelson for starters

Brad Johnson: You might find you don’t need more spots with others hitting the skids

Jerry: Does Eloy concern you long-term? I know its still a small sample, but the highly rated hit tool has looked great, and he’s never been a walker

Brad Johnson: Not long term, no

Brad Johnson: just for the next year or so

Help: Saves only league, should I be holding Alvarado or picking up another guy?  Parker/Rogers, Kelley/LeClerc available.

Brad Johnson: I’d probably move on

Al Gone Quinn: I think I’d prefer a raptured testicle than the ruptured one that Haniger is suffering from.

Brad Johnson: Doesn’t that mean the dead one will rise to judge the living one

Tommy La Stella: Re: Machado – he’s always been an infield pop up guy, but he’s taken them to a whole new level this year. He’s also down 10% on O-contact. Makes for a very yucky profile this year

Brad Johnson: I’m still willing to handwave that away as small sample noise

dezre: have chirinos at C in my 12 team H2H categories league, with Posey on the IL. should I trade posey and ride the chirinos wave ROS?

Brad Johnson: I think that’s reasonable

Brad Johnson: If something goes wrong with Chirinos, decent patches exist.

Brad Johnson: Alrighty, time to start wrapping up.

ROBOCOP: Would you rather have Giolito or Alonso in a 12 team standard 5×5 roto, where each player can be kept for next 3 years at $5-$9-$13 values?

Brad Johnson: I assume that’s not Yonder Alonso :0

Brad Johnson: And I would prefer 1 Alonso to 3 Giolitos

Rank the Juniors: Best fantasy career in an OPS – Acuna, Guerrero, Tatis

Brad Johnson: I’ll bet on Guerrero

j: With perfect management, you definitely was Carrasco. He gave 40 of 72 runs last year in 8 of 32 games. Throw those out and he’s at a 1.83 ERA on the year. This year half his runs have come off 3 starts.

Matt: 12-team roto Dynasty League, is this a fair base for a trade: My $4 Mondessi (goes to $6, 12, 14, 16, 32…) and $8 Nola (16,18,20) for his Tatis (minors, starts at $4 when called up) and $14 Rizzo ($16, 32, 34, 36). I’d be selling off, he’s in contention, needs pitching and SBs, has plenty of power.

Brad Johnson: I’m not super confident about Rizzo holding up for much longer

Brad Johnson: Would prefer a different second piece.

Brad Johnson: Especially with SBs so rare. But I do think it’s a reasonable proposal.

lorenzo: Interesting that Mookie’s “down” seasons coincide with the juiced ball seasons

BERTO!!: Who do you consider to be the top 5 pitchers following an Opener?

Brad Johnson: Are there 5? It’s basically only Jalen Beeks, Ryan Yarbrough, and some random matchup avoidance

Brad Johnson: That Bedrosian appearance we discussed was for a Noe Ramirez spot start. Then Noe Ramirez opened for Dillon Peters a few days later.

Brad Johnson: In short, there’s not really a follow in LAA

BERTO!!: Pena is the only other one I was thinking of. Thought maybe OAK had one

Brad Johnson: They messed with Mengden a bit last year.

Al Gone Quinn: Felix Pena is starting (excuse the pun) to be more of a follower.

Brad Johnson: Right, that first Noe Ramirez one I mentioned was actually Bedrosian to Pena to Ramirez

Matt: My Paddack for his Blackmon in a Keep 4 league was turned down. On the surface, this a reasonable proposal?

Brad Johnson: Yes

Brad Johnson: Let’s end on this note: evaluating any pitcher for hitter scenario is more broken than usual.

Brad Johnson: Paddack in particular is confusing because it’s assumed he’ll be shut down later.

David: OK, what about Muncy and Alex Reyes for Flaherty?

Brad Johnson: Yes, that’s better.

BERTO!!: That was the first time I have had a question answered in a chat. Thanks!

PAL: Can we expect better from Smoak RoS based off his stellar statcast data or is the statcast under performance just due to him being a really slow runner (ex. – Pujols, Kendrys Morales)?

Brad Johnson: A little of both. I think he’ll get a decent shot of positive regression.