The Daily Grind: Fireworks Day

Happy Fireworks Day!

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. Adjust?

1. The Daily Grind Invitational

Congrats to minihockey8 for finding a winning combination of Dallas Keuchel, Yoan Moncada, Charlie Blackmon, and Giancarlo Stanton. Everybody contributed something. Leaderboard.

Find some time between burgers to fire up a couple Invitational rosters. Yesterday’s overlay was crazy, and today could be worse. As is usually the case, it’s $2 and 52 entries for the night slate on FantasyDraft.

If you have not signed up for FantasyDraft, please use this referral link for tracking purposes. If I understand properly, by using the referral, you will receive a 10 percent return on any rakes you pay.

2. Weather Reports

Widespread barometric instability creates some modest risks today. New York, Chicago, Philadelphia, and Colorado could all see storms. At this time, no contests are at risk of postponement.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Early Slate: Seven games are in the afternoon. Aaron Nola ($25,600) is the runaway top pitcher, but I’m not sure he has much hope to earn his paycheck. He obviously can score 25 or more points against a tepid Orioles offense. The issue is in the likelihood of that outcome. I’m coming away with around an 18 point projection which makes this a losing proposition. I suggest using him only if you find yourself rostering a cheap stack. He should receive run support opposite Yefry Ramirez

Jose Berrios is visiting Miller Park for a tricky matchup against the Brewers. Despite a flop against the Cubs last time out, Berrios is a premium target in this slate. For $23,100, he features comparable ability to Nola at a merely expensive price. His opponent, Chase Anderson, has a favorable matchup against the Twins and costs only $14,800.

Compared to Nola and Berrios, Manaea is merely solid. Since he hosts the lowly Padres at the Coliseum, he may be worth the hefty $22,900 price tag. Luis Perdomo is back in the majors. He performed reasonably well at Triple-A and costs just $8,000. The Athletics are heavy on fly ball hitters which pairs well against Perdomo’s sinking stuff.

Several other pitchers have some potential including CC Sabathia ($15,500), Garrett Richards ($15,000), Jose Quintana ($15,000), and Mike Leake ($10,200). Of those, my favorite is Quintana versus the Tigers. Richards is returning from the disabled list.

Stack Targets: Ramirez, Perdomo, Francisco Liriano, Julio Teheran

mmm Teheran at Yankee Stadium sounds tasty to me.

Main Slate: Our evening group includes three headliner pitchers and some messy alternatives. Trevor Bauer is damned near unrosterable at $26,300 – even against an easy Royals offense. You have to believe in a double-digit strikeout total to justify the expense. Although… he has reached that plateau in five of his last seven starts. And the other two were eight strikeout performances. Perhaps he’s rosterable after all?

It’s much easier to find room for $24,800 Gerrit Cole versus the strikeout prone Rangers. Of course, Texas is much more hitter friendly than Kansas City, and the Rangers lineup isn’t exactly terrible.

Of the “aces,” – none of these guys went into the season with that kind of clout – Patrick Corbin is the most affordable at $21,000. He also has the toughest matchup. He’ll host Miles Mikolas ($18,500) and the Cardinals. Run support is uncertain for both pitchers, leading to a wider range of potential outcomes.

Oh, a cliff. And no lees in sight.

Rich Hill ($16,800) appears to have rebounded upon returning from the disabled list. The Dodgers should supply plenty of juice against Clay Holmes ($8,000). However, if you’re looking for something highly contrarian, Holmes’ ground ball stuff could translate to a shockingly strong start. It’s unlikely but possible.

Speaking of rebounds, Marcus Stroman has pitched well in two starts since a stint on the disabled list. He costs $12,600 for a start against the lowly Mets.

Stack Targets: Holmes, Tyler Anderson, Andrew Suarez, Corey Oswalt, Sal Romano, Dylan Covey, Trevor Oats

Oh boy, that’s some bad pitchers plus Anderson at Coors Field and Stroman

4. SaberSim Says…

The all-day bonanza favors Nola, Hill, Berrios, Quintana, and Bauer as the top arms. Bargains include Romano, Holmes, Perdomo, and other scrubs. For bats, try J.D. Martinez, Nolan Arenado, Aaron Judge, Mookie Betts, and Giancarlo Stanton for elite production. Value targets like Brett Gardner, Greg Bird, Nick Williams, and Steve Pearce shouldn’t be ignored.

5. Adjust?

You’d think maybe teams would use a scouting report on Max Muncy. Turns out middle and low is NOT the place to pitch him.

Shohei Ohtani is back, but Wade LeBlanc won this battle.

Speaking of returns, the Kershawshank Claydemption is touring once again. I won’t say he was in top form, but he looked pretty good.