The Daily Grind: Finals Week Pt. 2: The Aces

Now that we’ve completed the Small Slate final, it’s time to show you know how to use aces.

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
3. SaberSim Says…
4. Physics

1.The Daily Grind Invitational

Chaz63 successfully navigated an unusual small slate which was stuffed-packed with 25-point hitters. Basically all the pitchers flopped except Patrick Corbin. Congrats and Leaderboard.

We have 13 games tonight on FantasyDraft. We’re going single-entry through the end of the season.

2. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Today’s final is on ace optimization. First up is Gerrit Cole ($25,000) who will likely make a relatively normal start. This is the first time I’ve seen a $25,000 price tag. While I believe Cole to be worth every penny, the sheer quantity of quality arms in this slate suggests to me that the winning ticket might exclude Cole. Of course, it hurts to pass him up versus a bad Mariners team.

Mike Clevinger ($23,000) is an excellent alternative to Cole. He has an advantageous matchup against a semi-hot hitting White Sox lineup. At the very least, I’ve noticed Eloy Jimenez doing some work lately. Chicago is strikeout prone and hates working counts. The win bonus is likely.

Max Scherzer ($21,100) is bizarrely discounted. He should be priced in the $24,000 range (so should Clevinger). His situation is a tad more perilous – he’s set to face Aaron Nola ($18,900) and the Phillies. Nola figures to have one of the lowest ownership rates among the “aces” because he’s had a bit of an up and down year. Since Scherzer is similar in quality to Cole and Clevinger but much cheaper, he might have the highest ownership.

Eduardo Rodriguez ($20,600) has a favorable matchup against the lefty-prone Rangers, but he does not belong in this company.

Jack Flaherty ($19,000). Belong in this company that is. In fact, I figure he should cost closer to $22,500. The participants who try to use two aces are going to be heavily in on Flaherty as a relatively affordable connecting piece. Look for him to be combined with Scherzer, Nola, and…

…Noah Syndergaard ($17,600). While the Mets second ace has posted only one quality outing in his last five, we should overlook recent trends to consider the larger body of work. Specifically, the not-work of the Marlins offense. They took apart my favorite pick yesterday (Steven Matz). I’ll happily bet on Thor to bring the hammer to them. The Mets aren’t quite drawing dead in the Wild Card race (they’ll need a LOT of help). Those hunting a contrarian miracle could try Sandy Alcantara ($15,900). He did post a 40-point performance that one time.

The Cubbies have fallen apart, but their postseason bid is exactly one game more lively than the Mets. Kyle Hendricks ($16,900) feels a little too consistently mid-tier to work in this slate. I’m looking for my non-aces to have ace-like upside.

Like Homer Bailey ($16,100). He recently dismantled the Royals in a big way. Everything is clicking for the veteran, and he’s set to visit the Triple-A Angels. While Los Angeles has a reputation for low strikeout rates, the current iteration of the roster is not nearly as discerning.

Masahiro Tanaka ($15,500) is another volatile alternative to Hendricks. He typically posts mid-20s or low-teens point totals. The Yankees are jockeying for playoff position and might not given Tanaka a full-length leash.

Julio Teheran ($14,800) is walking into a good situation against a much-diminished Royals offense. The diminishment is almost entirely due to the loss of Adalberto Mondesi. Teheran throws his share of clunkers. He also notches quality starts more often than most.

Last but not least among the mid-tier crew, there is a hidden Madison Bumgarner for a modest $16,200. With the exception of Nolan Arenado, the sea-level Rockies don’t offer much to fear. MadBum looks more like steady Hendricks than the slightly cheaper upside gambles.

Dylan Bundy ($14,700 at TOR), Mike Leake ($14,500 vs STL), and Mitch Keller ($13,900 vs CHC) are the deepest I could justify reaching into this pool. And frankly, I’d rather avoid this trio. None of these are especially desirable situations. Nor do they offer much in the way of credible upside.

Favorite Plays: Flaherty, Thor, Scherzer, Bailey, Teheran

Stack Targets: Justin Dunn et al, Hector Santiago, Edinson Volquez, Jeff Hoffman, Brendan McKay, Anthony Kay, Dillon Peters, Keller, Leake, Bundy, Danny Duffy, Ronald Bolanos

3. SaberSim Says…

Scherzer, Clevinger, Flaherty, Cole, and Syndergaard lead the way. Hoffman, Flaherty, Syndergaard, Scherzer, and Clevinger are the best values. Well, it would seem our machine overlord has a clear idea as to which four pitchers should be targeted. It also likes Hoffman at sea level a lot more than me.

Mookie Betts, Rafael Devers, J.D. Martinez, Francisco Lindor, and Matt Chapman top the hitter list with Jared Walsh, Billy McKinney, Anthony Bemboom, Meibrys Viloria, and Martinez serving as bargain plays.

4. Physics

This is an impressive throw, but it would have been faster if he threw at a lower trajectory and hit a cutoff man.

Austin Hays was a popular post-hype sleeper this spring. Did you wait for yesterday’s outburst? Of course not.

Cavan Biggio is going to be very helium next year.