The Daily Grind: Fiers, Wright, Wilson
Agenda
- The Rake
- Daily DFS – Fiers, Collmenter
- GB / FB Splits
- Tomorrow’s Targets – Wright, Wilson, Moreland, Burns
- Factor Grid
1. The Rake
Let’s continue talking about the future of DFS. As greater parity is established in the DFS world, the current rake will prove a deterrent to market entrants. If you’d like to learn more about rakes, here is way too much information on the subject. In short, it’s the money the site takes as its commission.
I already won’t play head-to-head cash games because of the rake. Based on my skill level, I’ve determined that it’s mathematically impossible to earn a worthwhile ROI playing cash games. At least not without a healthy dose of long term luck. Frankly, I’d have to improve just to break even.
A representative H2H contest from FanDuel would have you bid $1 to win $1.80. That’s a 10 percent rake. Even the most bloodthirsty poker sites only skim five percent. For now, I won’t begrudge the heavy payout to the site. The industry is new. FanDuel and DraftKings have taken on the burden of introducing the general public to DFS via advertisements and promotions. It’s expensive work.
At some point, a market entrant will say “hey, we can still profit handsomely while taking a three percent rake. We’ll let the others pay for market education.” It’s a lot easier to earn a five percent or better ROI when only three percent of the pot vanishes into the ether.
Ultimately, I’m confident that the market equilibrium calls for a rake well below the current norm established by FanDuel and DraftKings. Whether those two behemoths allow equilibrium to set in is another story. In particular, DraftKings likes to purchase their top competitors.
StubHub provides a cautionary tale. The ticket broker takes a ridiculous commission on both sides of the transaction. I often sell $70 Phillies tickets on the site for my mom. StubHub makes about $30 per ticket if I list the price such that I break even. They established themselves as the official ticket broker of most major sports which has allowed them to maintain their usurious fees. FanDuel and DraftKings may well carve out a similar “official” niche albeit the scope is smaller.
2. Daily DFS – Fiers, Collmenter
Early: Based on how the sites are divvying up the day, nine games are early. Two are in the afternoon Bermuda Triangle. They’ve disappeared from the DFS docket.
Ryan Vogelsong is opposed by Mike Fiers in Milwaukee. This is an exploitable pairing on any day. However, Fiers will pitch on three days rest in place of Wily Peralta. Research has shown that short rest negatively affects performance. Obviously, there are contrary anecdotes (i.e. Madison Bumgarner last October). The important thing for DFS owners is that history is on the side of a Giants stack.
Late: That leaves us with four late games. The two worst pitchers of the contest are Alex Wood and Josh Collmenter. Expect to see many Cardinals stacks against Collmenter. The Dodgers also have plenty of interesting right-handed hitters to plug against Wood. You may want to fade by targeting someone like Jon Lester of Garrett Richards.
Stack Targets: Scott Kazmir, Sean O’Sullivan, Rick Porcello, Phil Hughes, Marco Estrada, Jeff Samardzija, Brad Hand, Kyle Kendrick
3. GB / FB Splits
The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.
A couple viable stacks are revealed by our favorite custom splits. Keep in mind, the Royals bullpen saps the potential of the Yankees offense.
Garrett Jones, Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, and Chase Headley vs. Chris Young
Josh Reddick vs. Alfredo Simon
Adam LaRoche, Adam Eaton, and Jose Abreu vs. Marco Estrada
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Wright, Wilson, Moreland, Burns
Pitchers to Start: We’re fortunate to have a couple easy stream starters tomorrow. It’s a very thin day even with a doubleheader.
Mike Wright has pitched well in two starts. The righty reminds me of Collin McHugh in that he seems to work up in the strike zone. A .184 BABIP and 100 percent left on base rate have allowed him to shutout the competition through 14.1 innings. While I don’t expect the shutout streak to continue, he might be lucky enough to face the White Sox B squad.
Also consider: Buck Farmer, Chris Heston
Pitchers to Exploit: C.J. Wilson has the misfortune of being a left-hander opposed by the Tigers. Detroit has a 126 wRC+ against southpaws. Wilson looks like the good version of himself, but that was never enough to overcome the current Tigers lineup.
Also consider: Chris Beck, CC Sabathia, Kendall Graveman
Hitters (power): Mitch Moreland is off to a warm and toasty start against right-handed pitching. The first baseman is hitting for average and power. While that won’t continue indefinitely, it could continue tomorrow against Steven Wright. Or perhaps he’ll be flummoxed by the knuckle ball. Flummoxed is a satisfying word.
Also consider: Mike Aviles, Ryan Raburn, Max Muncy, Mark Canha, Travis Snider
Hitters (speed): It is said that speed kills. Speed is also the only reason Billy Burns is a major league ball player. I assume the switch-hitter will bat leadoff against Sabathia. It’s unclear if death will play a role in this game.
Also consider: Jace Peterson, Rajai Davis, Alejandro De Aza, Adam Eaton
5. The Factor Grid
The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.
I’d advise you to steer clear of the game in Baltimore, but very few DFS contests include it.
The Link. Atmospheric conditions are prime for home runs.
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You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam
The legality of these sites will be their undoing as profitable businesses since nothing prevents a competitor from offering better odds.
Part of the reason casinos LIKE being heavily regulated is that it allows them collude to set odds in a way that ensures they aren’t bidding against one another to lower the odds. In Vegas, casinos offer different lines on contests but I don’t think its a coincidence no casino has ever attempted to undercut another with -105 vigs or decent futures odds the same way some offshore books have.
If the people who run these sites are smart, they’ll influence regulators to keep a very high bar on who is allowed to run these contests (perhaps even requiring explicit approval or sponsorship from the leagues) in order to keep their vig high. That’ll be a disaster for anyone who actually tries to make money on DFS contests, however.
Just to clarify, in avoiding cash games do you avoid 50/50’s in general as well as H2H? I think the 50/50 payout is low, but I seem to win more reliably. I haven’t been doing it long enough or playing enough GPP to estimate ROI, but the wins I’ve had have all been lowest payout – not a lot higher than .8 and lower hit rate.
I agree with the poster above – the legality will come into play at some point. I can distinguish DFS from, say, online poker, but I can’t really distinguish it from horse racing or even boxing or prop bets in baseball in terms of the skill/luck continuum.
In the end, I’d rather have high rake with regulatory/legal acceptance, if that’s what it takes.
I am not Brad, but thought I’d offer my take. I play 50/50s on FanDuel because, as you said, the win percentage is higher even if the payout isn’t. But, assuming your chance of winning a 50/50 is 50% (it’s more likely a little higher or lower depending on your skill level but daily fantasy is still a lot of luck), 10 $1 games will get you $9 back, or a loss of $1. (Spend $10, win $1.80 five times). For some people that may be fine. I like to supplement with GPPs so that when things go my way, I get rewarded for it. Coming in 3rd in a 50/50 is not a great feeling when you see what that would have netted you in a tournament.
In DraftKings, I prefer to play the 3x multipliers instead of 50/50s. The odds of winning are still a lot better than a tournament but at least the payout will be a little more substantial.
I put all my money into GPPs. The result can be somewhat frustrating. I’ve finished just outside of the money five times in my last six contests (the other was a complete debacle). If I had averaged another 4 points per day, I’d be up $100-$200 over the period. Instead, I’m down $100.
So long as you’re willing to absorb long losing streaks, it’s an easier path to profit.
A for 50/50’s, they should offer a better expected win rate than H2H. Those 1v1 matchup tend to be snapped up by sharks. Even the very low margin ones.
Thanks very much for the input guys. I will revisit GPP’s as I get a little better and still can play the beginner games. If I could even remotely hit top 10% (the higher than 2x payouts), I’d play more.
As to the rake, it would be nice if competition brought it down a bit, but I also like the idea of a small handful of known reputable sites carrying the load. I think a lot of volume competition would cause a lot of problems that could draw the wrong kind of oversight/attention to these games.
Maybe one of the big players will finally crack on the 10% once the ramp-up growth slows and they are looking for ways to draw more players. I know nothing about the business, but it feels like there is still lots of room to grow because new players are pouring into the game. Once that levels off and growth comes mostly from pulling existing players from other sites, the rakes may change.
How do you feel about using opposing pitchers? Is it too limiting? I.e., an Archer v King Felix
I can see it working for a 50/50 game where you’re playing conservatively. However GPPs are all about managing upside. I can’t imagine the math would ever work. If you want the $1,000 payday, then you’ll probably need a couple wins at the very least.
I used to make a fair amount at online poker back in the day, but I can’t foresee doing the same at DFS. The much higher rake is part of the problem, but so is the fact that the learning curve to become decent at DFS is not nearly as high as the learning curve to become decent at poker. Splits are obvious, park factors are too, sabermetrics is much too widely known about, and if all else fails you can easily buy a lineup. So in addition to the rake issue you have fewer clueless-but-overly-confident fish swimming around the pool.
I do play some DFS, but it’s strictly for the entertainment value it provides.
Why are the GPPs better than 50/50s? On Fanduel, if they fill up, the rake is even greater than 10%.