The Daily Grind: Farmer, Rodon, Welington

Agenda

1. Sporer on Shellackings
2. Daily DFS – Farmer, Buchholz
3. GB / FB Splits
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Rodon, Jungmann, Welington, Rajai
5. Factor Grid

1. Sporer on Shellackings

As a RotoGraphs reader, presumably you skim other articles besides the Grind. If for some reason you skipped over Paul Sporer’s On Good Pitchers Getting Crushed, I recommend circling back for a read. The topic is DFS relevant, although I’d also like to pursue it from the opposite angle. Which pitchers have imploded most often? Well, Shane Greene. But who else?

2. Daily DFS – Farmer, Buchholz

Early: You can find most of the day’s aces in the early slate. Chris Sale is untouchable these days. Carlos Carrasco keeps teasing us with his incredible stuff. Cole Hamels is auditioning for other clubs at Yankee Stadium.

Carrasco’s matchup is perhaps the most difficult. He draws the Tigers. However, he’s opposed by Buck Farmer. The righty hasn’t been treated well in the majors despite seemingly decent stuff. In 14.1 innings, he has a 11.93 ERA and 6.75 FIP. A win seems well within reach for Carrasco.

Late: The ace of the evening is Gerrit Cole. He’s ratcheted up his slider usage, especially when seeking strikeouts. He’s one of those few pitchers who doesn’t worry me with a shallow repertoire. Do the Reds even stand a chance? Of course they do, it’s just not a good chance.

Assuming you prefer somebody you can afford, Clay Buchholz will face Bud Norris and the Orioles. On his good days, Buchholz pitches deep into the game, racks up a strikeout per inning, and usually wins. On bad days, woof. I worry he’ll be extremely popular tonight.

Stack Targets: Farmer, Marco Estrada, Nate Karns, Ivan Nova, Matt Shoemaker, Norris, Allen Webster, David Hale, Danny Duffy, Ryan Vogelsong

3. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

We’ve cunningly curated a gorgeous selection of 31 players with an appetizing GB/FB split. Listed are our vintner’s handpicked selections.

Mike Zunino, Austin Jackson, Willie Bloomquist vs Danny Duffy
Buster Posey and Justin Maxwell vs Ian Kennedy
David DeJesus vs Marco Estrada
Denard Span vs Shelby Miller
A.J. Pollock vs David Hale
Russell Martin vs Nate Karns
Adam LaRoche, Adam Eaton, Jose Abreu, Geovany Soto vs Phil Hughes

4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Rodon, Jungmann, Welington, Rajai

Pitchers to Start: With 11 games tomorrow, you only have a couple viable streaming options. Carlos Rodon may look attractive based solely on name value. Beware! He’s opposed by the lefty mashing Tigers. As expected, Rodon has flashed brilliance, but his peripherals are shaky. He leans heavily on his slider and has shaky command (5.01 BB/9). One of these days, the opposition is going to tee up the fastball. The Tigers look like the right team to do it.

Also consider: Miguel Gonzalez

Pitchers to Exploit: Don’t be fooled by Taylor Jungmann. His numbers to date – a 3.50 ERA, 7.00 K/9, and 2.00 BB/9 – add up. However, they don’t align with his minor league performances. He usually posts a walk rate above 10 percent which would result in a 5.00 ERA. His strikeout rate may plummet since he doesn’t have swing-and-miss stuff.

Also consider: Carlos Frias, Rubby de la Rosa, Jorge de la Rosa, Matt Wisler, Doug Fister

Hitters (power): Welington Castillo has quietly collected three home runs since joining the Diamondbacks. Perhaps he’s happy to be freed. He’ll have the platoon advantage at Coors Field tomorrow. Score.

Also consider: Chris Young, Preston Tucker, Jason Castro, Danny Espinosa, Kelly Johnson, Yasmany Tomas, Chris Coghlan, Delmon Young, Nolan Reimold, Steve Pearce

Hitters (speed): Rajai Davis activate! It’s a tough matchup, but I’d still give him a shot. You already know his platoon numbers by now, right?

Also consider: Jon Jay, Jace Peterson, Cory Spangenberg, Billy Burns,

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The only storm risk is in Chicago.

The Link.

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