The Daily Grind: Fantasy Trade Chatter

Thanks to everybody who submitted applications to my job posting. I hope to have decisions sent out by Thursday.

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. Trade Talk

1. The Daily Grind Invitational

Only one user crossed the 100 point threshold – a rather low bar for excellence. mmddyyyy is back on top of the leaderboard. Blame Brandon Belt. He supplied 28 of the 103 points. Congrats and Leaderboard.

We have a nice 52-entry contest on FantasyDraft tonight. You may enter two lineups. Enjoy.

If you have not signed up for FantasyDraft, please use this referral link for tracking purposes. If I understand properly, by using the referral, you will receive a 10 percent return on any rakes you pay.

2. Weather Reports

Atmospheric instability is the theme of the day. Thunderstorms could affect Washington, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Boston, Atlanta, and New York. Nobody is a lock for a postponement, but they’re all at risk. Check back later in the day.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Main Slate: A full 14 game slate awaits. I’m pretty sure anybody scoring 103 points tonight can expect to completely miss the money. The one game that’s missing is a shame. Jordan Lyles appears to have become usable. Crazy sauce, I know.

Gerrit Cole is one of three Astros having a Cy Young quality season. None of them are the guy who already won a Cy Young in Houston. Cole has become the ace we always expected. For $26,400, I’m happily jumping back on the bandwagon – even against a tricky Angels lineup. It’s just pricey enough to convince others to use a second tier ace.

Heh. Noah Syndergaard is a second tier ace now? I guess so. The biggest issues for him have been short starts, hits allowed, and non-elite whiff rates. Only one start lasted more than six innings. Premium velocity is no longer the minimum for major league success. Now he must learn how to better use his stuff. Anyway, $21,200 versus the Blue Jays seems reasonable.

The other expensive name is Zack Greinke ($23,100). The Greinkster has declined to a Rick Porcello-quality starter. He has days when he’ll still induce ace-volume whiffs, but you’re mostly looking for seven solid innings with a high probability for a win. It’s not the best value for money, especially in a GPP.

Tyler Mahle ($17,600) showed up prominently in the latest attempt to quantify command. That explains how he’s outperformed his peripherals and visually modest stuff. Mahle’s FanGraphs page doesn’t read like an elite command guy because he’s willing to walk hitters. A visit to AT&T Field could reap rewards. I don’t care how the Giants offense has performed recently. They have only two or three good hitters.

Eduardo Rodriguez ($17,700) could randomly generate a strong point total while recording a strikeout per inning against the Athletics. Maybe Yu Darvish ($15,200) won’t suck in his return from the disabled list? Nick Pivetta ($14,700) has a squishy matchup versus the Orioles. Reynaldo Lopez ($14,600) may like a visit to PNC Park. I smell the bad kind of regression. Others include Jose Berrios, Jack Flaherty, Masahiro Tanaka, Mike Foltynewicz, and Alex Wood. It’s a deep slate.

Stack Targets: Wei-Yin Chen, Josh Tomlin, Ty Blach, Andrew Cashner, Jhoulys Chacin, Mike Leake, Jaime Garcia, Jaime Barria, Francisco Liriano

Tomlin is flat out broken. How else are we to interpret his 4.56 HR/9?

4. SaberSim Says…

Thor, Tanaka, Cole, Darvish, and ERod are the preferred arms tonight. And I thought Tanaka only merited a brief honorable mention. Interesting. Values include a bunch of terrible pitchers and Darvish. See if you like these names: Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Bryce Harper, Mookie Betts, and J.D. Martinez. Yea, those are BIG boppers. Jose Martinez, Wilmer Flores, and Jarrod Dyson are some of the premo bargains.

5. Trade Talk

When people come to me for advice, it’s usually to grade a trade proposal. In very general broad strokes, there are two types of trades: need-based and arbitrage attempts. The former classification isn’t meant to have a winner and a loser. Sometimes two teams can improve by redistributing assets. Your job is to add more stats without helping your opponent too much.

I find I mostly engage in arbitrage attempts. These require the participant to exploit a weakness in understanding. I discuss the most common ways players are incorrectly valued at my personal blog (see link from last sentence).