The Daily Grind: ERod, Shoemaker, Coors

Agenda

1. Daily DFS
2. GB / FB Splits
3. SaberSim Hi/Lo
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Shoemaker, Coors, Altherr, Sweeney
5. Factor Grid

1. Daily DFS – ERod

This evening features 12 games and the usual range of pitchers. David Price, Chris Archer, and Dallas Keuchel are the obvious top performers. You’ll pay over $11,000 on FanDuel for the pleasure to own them.

It’s a good day to go with the second and third tiers of pitchers. John Lackey runs $9,000 and has a solid matchup against the Nationals. Tyson Ross has a good chance to win against Colby Lewis and the Rangers. Hector Santiago is opposed by a weak Oakland lineup.

Eduardo Rodriguez ($7,400) is the ultimate GPP gamble. He continues to flash a high ceiling and low, low floor. This time around, he’s up against the Yankees. His performances haven’t always mirrored the quality of his opponent – he blanked the lefty mashing Tigers over seven innings in late July. His velocity was down two mph in his last start; a possible sign he’s ready for the offseason.

Stack Targets: Ivan Nova, Chris Narveson, Mike Foltynewicz, Jerad Eickhoff, Bartolo Colon, Michael Lorenzen, Chad Bettis, Felix Doubront, Jake Peavy, Lewis

2. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

We have 32 choices today:

Justin upton v Colby Lewis
Ben Revere v Danny Salazar
Addison Russell, Dexter Fowler v Michael Lorenzen
Billy Butler v Hector Santiago
Andre Ethier, Yasmany Grandal v Jake Peavy
Hank Conger, Evan Gattis, Carlos Correa v Vidal Nuno
Marlon Byrd v Brett Anderson
Franklin Gutierrez, Logan Morison v Scott Feldman
Mike Napoli, Prince Fielder v Tyson Ross
Justin Bour, Christian Yelich v Mike Foltynewicz

3. SaberSim Hi/Lo

Wrong: Pablo Sandoval hasn’t been terrible lately, but he hasn’t exactly been good either. Over his last 14 games, he’s hitting  just .241/.279/.431. That was the most positive recent split I could create. His “hot” hitting has seen him bumped to second in the lineup. I assume this is what SaberSim is keying on when it ranks Sandoval as a the 13th best hitter.

SaberSim is also an Ivan Nova hater despite solid production this season. Nova is projected for 6.83 FanDuel and 8.85 DraftKings points. Still, there are many third basemen I’m taking ahead of Sandoval tonight.

Right: David Peralta has an aggressive ranking as the 10th best hitter. I’m on board. He’s opposed by mediocre righty Chad Bettis at spacious Coors Field. Peralta has enough pop for home runs, but he also likes to drive the ball into the gaps. Extra base hits (plural) seem likely. He costs $4,000 on FanDuel – neither cheap nor expensive.

4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Shoemaker, Coors, Altherr, Sweeney

Pitchers to Start: Matt Shoemaker looked sharp in his return to the Angels rotation. He held the Tigers to one run and one hit over 7.1 innings. While I wouldn’t expect a sudden reversal of fortunes for Shoemaker, he should be fine against the Athletics. I’m looking for a win and a quality start with five strikeouts.

Also consider: Chris Tillman, Marco Estrada, Tyler Duffey, Joe Ross

Pitchers to Exploit: It’s Coors Field doubleheader day with Patrick Corbin, Yohan Flande, Rubby de la Rosa, and David Hale drawing the short straws. Of all the pitchers involved, de la Rosa is probably least adversely affected by the Coors effect. They’re still all exploits.

Also consider: Drew Smyly, Cody Anderson, Rick Porcello, Justin Nicolino, Aaron Harang, Jon Niese, Roenis Elias, Scott Feldman

Hitters (power): Diamondbacks and Rockies hitters at a premium tomorrow. If you fail to land one, Aaron Altherr has my attention. He’s opposed by Niese. Altherr is a huge, athletic outfielder with 20 home run power and 10 stolen base speed. He was very consistent in the minor leagues this season. He could provide a decent average with power.

Also consider: David Murphy, Jake Lamb, Ben Paulsen, Seth Smith, Chris Coghlan, Darin Ruf, Jeff Francoeur, Cameron Rupp, Adonis Garcia, Greg Bird, Yasmany Tomas, Welington Castillo

Hitters (speed): Darnell Sweeney was acquired by the Phillies as a rabbit with some latent power. Naturally, he’s hit two home runs in 19 plate appearances. No steals. He’s having trouble making contact in the majors, but Niese isn’t a strikeout pitcher. He should start with a lefty on the bump.

Also consider: Travis Jankowski, Billy Burns, Ender Inciarte, Cesar Hernandez

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The league is more or less dry with the possible start-time exception of Colorado. Those storms will clear out per early reports. It’s sure pissing where I live which could affect the Durham Bulls. Maybe sit Mikie Mahtook tonight in your Triple-A league.

The Link.

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