The Daily Grind, Erasmo, Perez, Grichuk

Agenda

1. Bullpens
2. Daily DFS – Erasmo
3. GB / FB Splits
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Morton, Perez, Weaver, Grichuk, Pagan
5. Factor Grid

1. Bullpens

Stacking advice and hitter picks invariably center around the starting pitcher. However, the bullpen can be just as important. Well, maybe not as important, but you get the point. There are two factors to consider with bullpens – overall quality and depth. Judging quality is easy. Pull up a leaderboard.

Granted, this isn’t a perfect means of analysis, but it will do at a high level. Some bullpens are soft. Anytime you see a streaming opportunity against the Braves, Rockies, Athletics, Reds, or White Sox, know that the second half of the game could be equally friendly for your hitters. Alternatively, you may want to think twice about a stack against the Royals or Cardinals.

That Royals bullpen also demonstrates the importance of depth. Or more to the point, avoid deep bullpens. If the Royals call upon their bullpen down four in the sixth, you’re liable to face Ryan Madson. If the Rays were in the same situation, you might see Kevin Jepsen (2.05 ERA, 4.13 xFIP). Relief corps with only a couple really good relievers can lead a team to good overall numbers while still offering DFS opportunities.

2. Daily DFS – Erasmo

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: There are just three early games. The Twins-Red Sox game is after 4:00 ET. They might not get lineups out in time for the start of contests.

As far as the available pitchers, you can pony up for Dallas Keuchel or throw a dart at one of the others. Wei-Yin Chen is probably the second best option. There isn’t much separating him from Steven Wright or Tommy Milone.

Late: Is Erasmo Ramirez a stacking target or a sneaky guy to start against the Mariners? The righty recently dominated a solid Orioles offense. He was spanked by a similarly solid Athletics unit the previous outing. The key to his starts might be walks. He dished out five free passes to Oakland in six innings but only one walk over seven innings versus the O’s.

Ramirez has all the tools of a reliable pitcher. Like a Rubik’s Cube, he just needs to solve the puzzle. His fastball is above average, his sinker is adequate, his change is borderline elite, and his slider and curve are both fine. A 5.53 ERA is terrifying and a 4.10 xFIP does little to mollify my concern with his runs allowed. Strangely, a lofty 12.1 percent swinging strike rate is coupled with 7.65 K/9. The pitch peripherals suggest he has a lot more ceiling. Thus has been the story for years.

Stack Targets: Jesse Hahn, Shane Greene, Chen, Milone, Wright, Jeremy Hellickson, Ramirez, Roenis Elias

3. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

Jeff found 24 names via query. Below are those that most interest me.

Ryan Howard vs. Anthony DeSclafani
George Springer, Hank Conger, Jake Marisnick, and Evan Gattis vs. Wei-Yin Chen
Josh Reddick vs. Shane Greene
Avisail Garcia vs. Yovani Gallardo
Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, and Zack Cozart vs. Aaron Harang
Carlos Santana and Michael Bourn vs. Chris Young

4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Morton, Perez, Weaver, Grichuk, Pagan

Pitchers to Start: Charlie Morton versus Williams Perez isn’t exciting, but desperate owners could target either pitcher. Morton fits the Tim Hudson profile – plenty of ground balls but few strikeouts. He could easily sail through a game against the Braves.

Perez is a little harder to explain. He throws a sinker, change, and curve. The sinker hasn’t missed any bats (well technically, it’s been whiffed seven times out of 234 pitches). The change has played borderline elite, and he uses it against both righties and lefties. The curve is fine. The repertoire doesn’t seem destined for long term success. Personally, I’d like to see him throw even more changeups. The pitch is 12 mph slower than his sinker.

Also consider: Chase Anderson, Brett Anderson

Pitchers to Exploit: Jered Weaver isn’t the most exploitable pitcher of the evening, but I feel compelled to explain why he’s always in the exploit column. Simply put, it’s his profile. These soft-tossing Jamie Moyer types can twirl a complete game on any given day, but they’ll also get BABIP’d to death on occasion. A visit to Yankee Stadium is less than ideal for the fly ball pitcher.

Also consider: Jerome Williams, Roberto Hernandez, Wade Miley, Chris Tillman, Shaun Marcum, Jose Quintana, Kyle Ryan, Chi Chi Gonzalez, Kyle Lohse, Tom Koehler, Eddie Butler,

Hitters (power): Last season in 472 Triple-A plate appearances, Randal Grichuk bashed 25 home runs and stole eight bases. The Cardinals are giving him fairly regular starts, especially against left-handed pitching. With a high whiff rate, he looks like a low average hitter. Still, his combination of power and speed are worth considering against Jon Niese Brett Anderson.

Also consider: Mark Canha, Joey Butler, Yasmany Tomas, Aaron Hill, Travis Snider

Hitters (speed): Fantasy owners have finally reacted to Nori Aoki’s strong performance. His teammate Angel Pagan remains widely available. Pagan has yet to offer much excitement with his four category profile. He’s opposed by Williams of the Jerome variety. Not Perez.

I like plural first names.

Also consider: Brandon Guyer, Rajai Davis, Jace Peterson, Michael Bourn, Billy Burns

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Games in the capitol and Philadelphia could experience some early rain. They should occur, but the start will be delayed.

The Link. A lack of extreme stadiums tonight. Globe Life Park is a great place for run scoring though…

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.