The Daily Grind: E-Rod, Strasburg, Plouffe
Agenda
- A Friendly Reminder
- Daily DFS – Rodriguez, Paxton
- Tomorrow’s Targets – de la Rosa, Strasburg, Plouffe, Davis
- Factor Grid
1. A Friendly Reminder
This is a friendly reminder to be…uh…friendly. It’s the end of May, you should know your strengths and deficiencies. As you explore the trade market, it behooves you to conduct yourself in an honest and forthright manner.
Trade talks should feel like collusion. When you approach another owner about one of his or her players, you’re seeking to help two teams at the exclusion of all others. Cooperation is more likely to produce a positive outcome than an adversarial approach.
As I mentioned in a past Grind, I’m in a position to rebuild in my home league after six straight top three finishes. One of the players I’m targeting is an $8 Kris Bryant. I’m offering $43 Giancarlo Stanton. The other owner and I do not see eye-to-eye about keeper value. One of my traits is that I don’t back down on my valuations, even if I don’t have any leverage.
Historically, fire sale teams have given up anything and everything to secure top keepers even though it rarely should have been necessary. The leverage belongs entirely to those teams with the keeper. In lieu of leverage, I’m using my natural stubbornness. I do have one advantage, five teams are in a close dog fight. Whoever acquires my reinforcements will be in a good position to win.
Unfortunately, this other owner and I can’t pass on the urge to sling insulting offers. I ask for $8 Bryant and $15 Carlos Carrasco. He counters with $1-8 Kyle Schwarber or Carlos Correa for Stanton*. I reply with something similarly ridiculous. We’ll probably never reach an agreement because we’re rarely civil. Lucky for me, I’m on good terms with most of his closest rivals. And they have the necessary pieces to land Stanton.
*Keeper prices escalate by $7 per season. In other words, it’s not like I can develop these top prospects for multiple years. They have to hit right out of the gate or else they’re cuts.
2. Daily DFS – Rodriguez, Paxton
Early: There is an early doubleheader. You can’t DFS it. Well, you could, but there aren’t many contests featuring the all-day option. Also, why would you submit blind rosters? The Orioles are throwing Tyler Wilson to the wolves against Chris Sale. Game two doesn’t matter.
FanDuel is calling the 8:05 ET game in Texas “early.” It’s pretty silly. In any event, I look forward to seeing Eduardo Rodriguez take the hill. Boston is calling it a spot start, but he’ll be back before long. Boston is four games under .500, but they’re also just four games back in the AL East. They need every marginal gain they can find. E-Rod’s command and control, stuff, and strikeout ability easily fits in a crappy Red Sox rotation.
Late: Five games start after 10:05 ET. This is the main contest of the day. CC Sabathia versus Kendall Graveman could be a high scoring affair. Elsewhere, southpaw C.J. Wilson has to contend with the Tigers indomitable righty stack.
James Paxton has a decent matchup against the Indians. Cleveland has hit lefties well in a small sample, but they were terrible last season. The lineup is basically the same so I’m inclined to use the larger sample. Unfortunately, Paxton is opposed by Corey Kluber.
3. Tomorrow’s Targets – de la Rosa, Strasburg, Plouffe, Davis
Pitchers to Start: You have several unestablished pitchers to choose from tomorrow. Rubby de la Rosa is one such unstable concoction. The righty will face a mild-mannered Brewers offense. De la Rosa has buffed his whiff rate to 12 percent. His 4.27 ERA isn’t desirable, but a 3.37 SIERA and 3.30 xFIP look much tastier. He’s a safe bet for about a strikeout per inning. After that, it’s anyone’s guess as to how he’ll perform.
Also consider: Steven Wright, Carlos Rodon, Lance McCullers, Mike Bolsinger, Mike Foltynewicz, Jimmy Nelson
Pitchers to Exploit: I’m picking Stephen Strasburg as an exploit today – mostly just to be a troll. I’ve simplified his heat map as best I can. Here are his pitch locations from 2014 followed by this season. (You might need to click into it).
Pay special attention to the two middle bands. In 2014, roughly 35 percent of his pitches caught some kind of “middle.” This year, nearly 41 percent of his pitches are in the most hittable regions including 2.5 percent more straight down broadway. His 6.50 ERA is entirely the product of a .390 BABIP. Based on his pitch locations, he’s still at least partially responsible.
The game is at Great American Ball Park, aka the second best stadium for home runs. It looks like he needs to make a tiny adjustment to his pitch location to get back on track. I can’t imagine it will take long.
Also consider: Chad Bettis, Mark Buehrle, Trevor May, Chris Capuano, Taijuan Walker
Hitters (power): If you’re looking for a platoon bat in the Twins lineup, it’s Brian Dozier. If you’re looking for one you can snag off the waiver wire, it’s Trevor Plouffe. The third baseman isn’t a true lefty slayer, but he is startable against those pesky southpaws. He’s hitting .288/.400/.525 against them this year, but his career split slash is .279/.355/.480.
Also consider: Kevin Kiermaier, David Peralta, Mark Canha, Max Muncy, Derek Norris
Hitters (speed): Rajai Davis is a star against left-handed pitching. He has contact skills, power, and blistering speed. This year, he’s hitting .286/.359/.543 versus southpaws – right in line with his career splits. He’s swiped about one base per 10 plate appearances.
Also consider: Juan Lagares, Ender Inciarte, Billy Burns, Nori Aoki, Angel Pagan
4. The Factor Grid
The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.
The only game with any weather risk is the doubleheader in Baltimore.
The Link. Unfortunately, most of the ballparks in play today are pitcher friendly.
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Fell out of contention in an Otto 5×5 and turned a $50 Stanton into a $12 Springer and $9 Tyson Ross. Felt it was about as good as I was going to get and Springer offers potential massive value.
I kind of like Heston tonight and thingk that Buehrle might be tomorrow’s “gas can of the day”
I like Heston’s skill level but don’t see the upside today in DFS. He doesn’t strike out many batters, Atlanta doesn’t strike out, and Shelby Miller could shut down the Giants. Without the win and strikeouts, you’re looking at a single digit performance in FanDuel. Today, I’m being boring and sticking with Kluber and Burnett.
I agree with both of you honestly. I’m not looking at Heston as a DFS pick unless you’re also fading Miller. That said, the matchup is relatively attractive.
What do you know of Buck Farmer? A weird cast of pitchers today who we haven’t seen much of. Is today the day Nick Martinez falls apart? I would bet against him today but the rain chances keep going up.
Also, what are the odds his nickname is F*ck Barmer?
Hahaha
Hey now, my offer with Schwarber also included an $4 Yu Darvish and choice of $1 Nelson/$1 Rubby
That was today’s offer. You’ve definitely countered with Schwarber + garbage in the past.
You wanted Bryant and Carrasco for Stanton? I mean, it’s not terrible, but Bryant’s value is probably not too far behind Stanton’s as-is, even before you bring his HUUUUUUGE keeper value into the equation. It’s a reasonable enough starting point to a discussion, I guess, but you need to toss a bit more on your side of the equation or ask for a secondary piece much less than Carrasco in my opinion.
On second thought, considering Bryant’s keeper value, a 1-for-1 trade seems fairly reasonable. I mean, you’re getting a $30-35 guy for $15? I wouldn’t ship anyone else either.
(Just my two cents!)
fwiw, the Bryant + Carrasco ask occurred before Bryant was activated. There was at least some risk that he’d flop in his first tour.
Yeah, what makes trading for the best keepers is that what makes them so good is not only a large $ cost, but that they are also, well, already really valuable and healthy players. So to get a bump in four months of production over a guy who’s not only much cheaper but also close in production can be a tough task.
Brad’s certainly availed himself well of other such guys on his squad this rare down year, a fair return for a $43 Stanton can lead to a wide interpretation by its very nature…
But you’re just saying that our leaguemates won’t take advantage of an inefficiency. So it’s my job to educate y’all to act rationally or else keep Stanton myself.
Honestly, based on the rosters, I don’t really see a match here. Jeff’s roster is very stars and scrubs; he’s getting negative value from 2B, SS, MI, and C (at least for the past month while Lucroy and D’Arnaud have been out), and he doesn’t have enough closers. He should be seeking to deal Bryant for moderate to good upgrades at multiple positions to fill the black holes in his roster. Bryant for Stanton is probably fair value, and Brad is correct to seek that sort of return for Stanton, but it doesn’t really work for Jeff’s roster at the moment.
Agree Peter — my best move is to swap a cheap 2016 guy like Darvish to a team like Zack’s for an elite, non-keepable closer like Jansen
Wow, you really want Bryant.
My team is in 12th and Bryant is the most valuable keeper in the league. That said, Stanton is still a top 15 keeper despite an expensive price tag.
I have a very hard time believing a $50 Stanton is a top 15 keeper; there’s not much surplus value there. I don’t see how you would expect someone to give up the best keeper in the league who is already a top 5 player at his position for 4 months of a slightly better hitter with way less keeper value. And then you want another piece on top of that…
He’s $43 to keep, I already factored in the inflation. He’s easily a $60 player, I had him at $66 for this season. Even if he continues at his current reduced pace, he’s looking at around $58 for next year.
One additional important fact, our budgets are $310 rather than the standard $260.
The present offers on the table are:
From me: $8 Espinosa + Stanton for Bryant
From him: $11 Yu Darvish, $1 or $8 Schwarber (depends if he finishes his year in MLB), and parts for Stanton, Espinosa, and $15 Ken Giles
Needless to say, I think my offer is fair and his is insulting.
Oh and he has Gyorko as his 2B so Espinosa is a meaningful 5 category upgrade.
Oh ok, so Stanton is a valuable keeper then. But Rendon is out on his rehab assignment right now and should be back pretty soon, meaning Espinosa will go back to being a utility infielder. So your offer is basically Bryant for Stanton straight up. I would agree that’s still more fair than his offer, but if the roles were reversed and you were in his shoes, would you take that deal? You would have to be 100% sure that the upgrade from Bryant to Stanton was completely necessary in order for you to win it all this season to make that trade.
Brad, only one player was kept for that much or more (Cutch for $45) this year’s draft… a calculator value says one thing, but in actual play no one is going to think anyone is getting any surplus value from any player at that price, because that is the max one pays period, regardless of our $310 budget (which also includes more players drafted/team than is usual).
So I agree, just looking for Stanton or Stanton/small piece for top keeper (who is both much cheaper and basically as good or near so) doesn’t equate.
1) I dont consider Nelson/Rubby “parts” — I annually lead our league in pitching for a reason — i’m very good at identifying valuable assets like these two. I dont think its inconceivable that ONE of them ends up being worth $8+ next year and I’m letting you make that choice as to risk
2) I have Odor/Correa to reinforce my MI/2B/SS slots, and Gyroko versus Espinosa isnt that big of a gap in my eyes. Its just a matter of who, to date, has hit their ceiling. Going forward, I see them relatively equal in risk/reward.
3) I agree with Peter, though I would think it be wiser to shore up CL with Darvish. I have Correa/Odor/D’Arnaud/Lucroy coming back/up in the very near term, so I have to weigh the value of them versus what is being offered and the amount of time I have to tread water until all 4 are back in the active lineup.
4) As I think others have identified, Bryant is immensely valuable — probably the player with the most surplus value in the league. Even with +$7 inflation, he’ll more likely than not be worth his cost and then some for many years while producing at a higher end level. Combined with a still cheap Harper/Rizzo/Donaldson/Correa and with Correa/Schwarber offering longer-term cheap value too (our league can keep one NA spot at $1, which will likely be Schwarber unless he gets an early call up for the Cubs), I have a strong core to build around. Sadly, injuries have killed some of my key guys in the stars and scrubs game early, but I expect to survive as I’ve treaded water in the 4-5 range without them and have reinforcements on the way!
Sure, one of Nelson or RdlR might be worth $8 next year, but who cares? That’s not somebody you trade for as a keeper in May/June. They’re throw ins.
That’s a point of fundamental disagreement between us — I dont see them as throw ins, the same as I didn’t see Carlos Carrasco as a throw in in the second half last year or Teheran/Samardzjia in 2013 when you tried to claim the same 🙂
Bryant is amazing, keeper wise, it would be a wise move to attempt to acquire him.
Do yoiu ever add the GB/FB stuff after this has published?
No. Either Zim hands me the stuff the day before, or he’s not going to do it.
Better call-up start tonight; Farmer or Rodriguez? ROS?
E-Rod for both. I do like Farmer’s matchup today.
Here’s my philosophy to add more color. Brad greatly discounts future value and keeper/scrub value due to unknown future risk/bust rates. I, on the other hand, have little to gain by “selling low” and eating the cost of those risks by extracting less value than my 50% mental calculation of what the player will be and obviously plenty of upside to obtain with the bonus of long-term value if the level of play is strong enough (case and point: keeping rizzo/machado the last few years to see if they reach the next level). It’s not a matter of dreaming on upside so much as asking me to overdiscount present/future value. Bryant will cost $8 in 2016, $15 in 2017, $22 in 2018, and so on. The only players in our league with comparable SURPLUS value in my estimation are guys like Harper (low $20s), Rizzo (high $20s), Trout (high $20s), Goldschmidt ($30ish?), Springer ($8), Donaldson ($15) and a few pitchers – it is not coincidental that I have been targeting these specific players by leveraging my middle of the pack team’s stars last year and pouncing early to burn 2014 roster spots/value for 2015 and beyond.
The bottom line is that I highly value the future. Flags fly forever, but you cannot predict injury, collapse, etc., and unless I am put in a position to guarantee a 2015 win, it makes little sense to “overmortgage” my 2016+ values. And, logically, “overkill” for this year trades are silly because every point you trade off in the future to win by more than you actually need to this year is a waste of resources. Call it a mitigation strategy – its better to finish towards the top with upside perennially than at the top once probably.
(it’s also why I picked up Schwarber/Correa so early and tried to do the same with Russell when I realized just how weak the MI crop for 2015 was on the waiver wire).