The Daily Grind: E-Rod, Strasburg, Plouffe

Agenda

1. A Friendly Reminder
2. Daily DFS – Rodriguez, Paxton
3. Tomorrow’s Targets – de la Rosa, Strasburg, Plouffe, Davis
4. Factor Grid

1. A Friendly Reminder

This is a friendly reminder to be…uh…friendly. It’s the end of May, you should know your strengths and deficiencies. As you explore the trade market, it behooves you to conduct yourself in an honest and forthright manner.

Trade talks should feel like collusion. When you approach another owner about one of his or her players, you’re seeking to help two teams at the exclusion of all others. Cooperation is more likely to produce a positive outcome than an adversarial approach.

As I mentioned in a past Grind, I’m in a position to rebuild in my home league after six straight top three finishes. One of the players I’m targeting is an $8 Kris Bryant. I’m offering $43 Giancarlo Stanton. The other owner and I do not see eye-to-eye about keeper value. One of my traits is that I don’t back down on my valuations, even if I don’t have any leverage.

Historically, fire sale teams have given up anything and everything to secure top keepers even though it rarely should have been necessary. The leverage belongs entirely to those teams with the keeper. In lieu of leverage, I’m using my natural stubbornness. I do have one advantage, five teams are in a close dog fight. Whoever acquires my reinforcements will be in a good position to win.

Unfortunately, this other owner and I can’t pass on the urge to sling insulting offers. I ask for $8 Bryant and $15 Carlos Carrasco. He counters with $1-8 Kyle Schwarber or Carlos Correa for Stanton*. I reply with something similarly ridiculous. We’ll probably never reach an agreement because we’re rarely civil. Lucky for me, I’m on good terms with most of his closest rivals. And they have the necessary pieces to land Stanton.

*Keeper prices escalate by $7 per season. In other words, it’s not like I can develop these top prospects for multiple years. They have to hit right out of the gate or else they’re cuts. 

2. Daily DFS – Rodriguez, Paxton

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: There is an early doubleheader. You can’t DFS it. Well, you could, but there aren’t many contests featuring the all-day option. Also, why would you submit blind rosters? The Orioles are throwing Tyler Wilson to the wolves against Chris Sale. Game two doesn’t matter.

FanDuel is calling the 8:05 ET game in Texas “early.” It’s pretty silly. In any event, I look forward to seeing Eduardo Rodriguez take the hill. Boston is calling it a spot start, but he’ll be back before long. Boston is four games under .500, but they’re also just four games back in the AL East. They need every marginal gain they can find. E-Rod’s command and control, stuff, and strikeout ability easily fits in a crappy Red Sox rotation.

Late: Five games start after 10:05 ET. This is the main contest of the day. CC Sabathia versus Kendall Graveman could be a high scoring affair. Elsewhere, southpaw C.J. Wilson has to contend with the Tigers indomitable righty stack.

James Paxton has a decent matchup against the Indians. Cleveland has hit lefties well in a small sample, but they were terrible last season. The lineup is basically the same so I’m inclined to use the larger sample. Unfortunately, Paxton is opposed by Corey Kluber.

3. Tomorrow’s Targets – de la Rosa, Strasburg, Plouffe, Davis

Pitchers to Start: You have several unestablished pitchers to choose from tomorrow. Rubby de la Rosa is one such unstable concoction. The righty will face a mild-mannered Brewers offense. De la Rosa has buffed his whiff rate to 12 percent. His 4.27 ERA isn’t desirable, but a 3.37 SIERA and 3.30 xFIP look much tastier. He’s a safe bet for about a strikeout per inning. After that, it’s anyone’s guess as to how he’ll perform.

Also consider: Steven Wright, Carlos Rodon, Lance McCullers, Mike Bolsinger, Mike Foltynewicz, Jimmy Nelson

Pitchers to Exploit: I’m picking Stephen Strasburg as an exploit today – mostly just to be a troll. I’ve simplified his heat map as best I can. Here are his pitch locations from 2014 followed by this season. (You might need to click into it).

Pay special attention to the two middle bands. In 2014, roughly 35 percent of his pitches caught some kind of “middle.” This year, nearly 41 percent of his pitches are in the most hittable regions including 2.5 percent more straight down broadway. His 6.50 ERA is entirely the product of a .390 BABIP. Based on his pitch locations, he’s still at least partially responsible.

The game is at Great American Ball Park, aka the second best stadium for home runs. It looks like he needs to make a tiny adjustment to his pitch location to get back on track. I can’t imagine it will take long.

Also consider: Chad Bettis, Mark Buehrle, Trevor May, Chris Capuano, Taijuan Walker

Hitters (power): If you’re looking for a platoon bat in the Twins lineup, it’s Brian Dozier. If you’re looking for one you can snag off the waiver wire, it’s Trevor Plouffe. The third baseman isn’t a true lefty slayer, but he is startable against those pesky southpaws. He’s hitting .288/.400/.525 against them this year, but his career split slash is .279/.355/.480.

Also consider: Kevin Kiermaier, David Peralta, Mark Canha, Max Muncy, Derek Norris

Hitters (speed): Rajai Davis is a star against left-handed pitching. He has contact skills, power, and blistering speed. This year, he’s hitting .286/.359/.543 versus southpaws – right in line with his career splits. He’s swiped about one base per 10 plate appearances.

Also consider: Juan Lagares, Ender Inciarte, Billy Burns, Nori Aoki, Angel Pagan

4. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The only game with any weather risk is the doubleheader in Baltimore.

The Link. Unfortunately, most of the ballparks in play today are pitcher friendly.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.