The Daily Grind: DL, Heaney, Ray, Bourn

Agenda

1. DL Stash Advice
2. Daily DFS – Heaney
3. GB / FB Splits
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Ray, Morgan, Peralta, Bourn
5. Factor Grid

1. DL Stash Advice

There are roughly two months left in the season. In one sense, a player who suffers a four week injury will miss only one-sixth of the season. He’ll also miss half of the remaining games. Determining which players to hold and drop depends on your format, specific needs, league depth, and keeper rules. As a general rule of thumb, the quicker they’ll be back, the more willing you should be to keep them.

On the short end are guys like Denard Span, Giancarlo Stanton, and Miguel Cabrera. They’re expected back by mid-August. If you stashed them all this time, there’s probably no reason to cut bait now.

Conversely, Matt Holliday is out until late September. If you have room on your disabled list, sure, keep him. If not, it’s impossible to justify one or two weeks of rusty Holliday over ANY regular outfielder. Even an Odubel Herrera would be a better bet at this stage of the season.

It gets trickier for players like Corey Dickerson. He’s probably out for about four weeks with two broken ribs. I have a head-to-head league in which I’m in second place, 5.5 games behind first. Scott Pianowski (who also happens to be one game behind me), dropped Dickerson for Didi Gregorius.

Even though I have Span, Justin Turner, and Byron Buxton on my disabled list, I decided to pick up Dickerson, dropping Drew Pomeranz. My other trio of hurt players are due back soon. Even without a DL stash available, I decided that four weeks of Dickerson was worth more than eight weeks of Pomeranz. Dickerson’s return will coincide with the start of our fantasy playoffs.

Marcus Stroman has begun throwing off a mound with an eye towards returning as a reliever this season. Redraft owners can ignore his efforts, but keeper league owners have to consider adding him soon. I snagged him in one league this morning in which he’ll be $8 to keep. I’m out of the race for first place so I have more willingness to stash useless players for the next two months.

2. Daily DFS – Heaney

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: Why does the cheese stand alone? Because it smells. By transitive property, we must assume that Wrigley Field also smells. It’s the lone early game. I don’t think you wanted to use Jon Lester or Ryan Vogelsong.

Late: It’s Clayton Kershaw day. And Gerrit Cole day. And Jacob deGrom, Jose Fernandez, Dallas Keuchel, Cole Hamels, and Sonny Gray. They all cost over $10,000 on FanDuel. It’s a good day for cash game participants to seek out bargain hitters to fit with an expensive hurler.

If you opt to zig with an affordable starter, Andrew Heaney is your guy. He’s at home against Kevin Gausman and the Orioles. It’s not a gimme matchup for the lefty. You’ll have to trust he can last seven innings with six strikeouts while avoiding damage from Manny Machado and Adam Jones. If he does, he should earn a victory.

Other affordable options include R.A. Dickey, Aaron Nola, and Daniel Norris. Are they risky? Yes, they’re very risky.

Stack Targets: Tyler Cravy, Mike Pelfrey, Joe Kelly, Gausman, Raisel Iglesias, Jorge de la Rosa, John Danks, Cody Anderson, Nathan Eovaldi

3. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

We’re back to a normal list today – 29 players in all. Here are the best.

Avisail Garcia v Edinson Volquez
Yasiel Puig v Gerrit Cole
Carlos Gomez and Chris Carter v Sonny Gray
Nick Castellanos v Joe Kelly
Jayson Werth v Jorge de la Rosa
Christian Yelich v Julio Teheran

4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Ray, Morgan, Peralta, Bourn

Pitchers to Start: In a keeper league, I’m trying to decide Robbie Ray’s keeper value. He’s pitched to a 3.01 ERA (3.96 xFIP) with 7.91 K/9 and 2.51 BB/9. His minor league track record includes shakier command and better strikeout rates. It’s also worth noting that his velocity spiked two mph since last season. He’s a fly ball pitcher with a fortunate 4.7 percent HR/FB ratio.

The overall picture remains uncertain. There are clear paths for improvement and regression. He should at least earn an easy win against the Reds and Keyvius Sampson.

Also consider: Kyle Hendricks, Jaime Garcia, Tom Koehler

Pitchers to Exploit: Phillies fans shouldn’t put too much faith into Adam Morgan. The soft-tossing southpaw has a plus changeup, but he doesn’t possess the necessary velocity to make it a weapon like Cole Hamels. The result is a 4.93 K/9 despite a high 10.1 percent whiff rate. His command isn’t elite (3.05 BB/9). The total picture looks like a 5.25 ERA pitcher. It doesn’t hurt the Phillies to let him finish out the season in the majors, but they’ll want to push him down the depth chart heading into next season.

Also consider: Ivan Nova, Martin Perez, Yohan Flande, Wade Miley, Alfredo Simon, Jeremy Guthrie, Mike Foltynewicz, Keyvius Sampson

Hitters (power): While we should take our small samples with a grain of salt, Jake Lamb has hit .375/.409/.650 with a .433 BABIP over the last two weeks. He popped two home runs as part of the onslaught. He’s a regular contributor in the heart of the Diamondbacks lineup. He’s come full circle since his hot start to the season. While BABIP regression is a certainty, a .371 BABIP was his lowest rate in the minors – and that came way back in 2012. We’re probably dealing with a high BABIP hitter. He’ll face Sampson.

Also consider: David Peralta, Brayan Pena, Khris Davis, Jayson Werth, Chris Coghlan, Preston Tucker

Hitters (speed): Over his last nine games (eight starts), Michael Bourn is hitting .429/.484/.500 with a .545 BABIP. The hot surge isn’t why you’ll want to consider using him. He’s also swiped six bases over the period. He’s stolen just 13 bags on the season. It’s clear that he’s feeling frisky lately. Perhaps he’s finally healthy for the first time in years. If so, we could be treated to a .290 average and 15 stolen bases over the rest of the season. Or, maybe he’ll just continue to suck. He’s opposed by Ervin Santana.

Also consider: Ender Inciarte, Ichiro Suzuki, Jace Peterson, Tyler Saladino, Rajai Davis, Brock Holt

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

It’s another dry August day. The stadiums are clumped in the neutral to pitching friendly range with a few outliers (New York, Milwaukee, and Arizona).

The Link.

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