The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for September 7

Agenda

1. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
2. Daily DFS
3. SaberSim Observations
4. Tomorrow’s Targets
5. Factor Grid

1. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard

Yesterday’s contest did not fill and therefore did not run. That’s good since you didn’t see how spectacularly my Marlins stack failed against Adam Morgan. I’m going to bet the unfilled contest had more to do with my short vacation than the transition to football. We’ll stick with $2 and 20 users on DraftKings today. I don’t want to go below the 20 user threshold, so we might close up shop early on the contests if we’re not getting them filled.

2. Daily DFS 

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: The early slate has four games and starts at noon-thirty. Noah Syndergaard and Anthony DeSclafani have to contend with beatable opponents at an unfriendly venue. I’m always wary of picking a pitcher at Great American Ballpark, but they’re both viable in a contest of this size.

Similarly, I usually avoid Jose Quintana when he draws the Tigers. It’s not that Quintana can’t handle Detroit, it’s that they have so much explosive potential. Even Chris Sale got beat by Miguel Cabrera the other day. Anibal Sanchez has been sneaky decent since mid-July (4.12 ERA in 54.2 innings). He might make for a snazzy fade.

The other game to watch is in Tampa Bay, pitting Dylan Bundy against Drew Smyly. Bundy has only once pitched beyond six innings, and it’s not uncommon for him to fall short of five frames. Smyly is maddeningly homer prone which isn’t a good fit against a powerful Orioles lineup.

Stack Targets: Alex Meyer, Jharel Cotton, Sanchez, Smyly

Late: The main slate has some busyness to it (not to be confused with business). Stephen Strasburg (ATL), Carlos Carrasco (HOU), and David Price (SD) headline the slate. Carrasco obviously has the hardest matchup, but it’s not as if they Astros don’t strike out. Strasburg probably won’t go too deep in his return from the disabled list.

Danny Duffy’s Cy Young chances have dwindled with his last few starts, but he still has an excellent matchup against a floptastic Twins offense. Aside from suddenly unbeatable Brian Dozier, most of the better offensive components are left-handed.

Jeremy Hellickson is pitching the dream. He should cruise to an easy win against crappy Andrew Cashner. Then again, the Phillies offense will need to score a few runs. Hellickson’s issues with left-handed hitters should be helped by the lack of scary bats. What? Is Christian Yelich going to hit hard ground balls? Ooh terrifying.

The Dodgers are a big old dog poot when facing a left-handed pitcher (77 wRC+). Robbie Ray is an excellent facsimile of a quality southpaw, replete with swing-and-miss stuff. He cruised through seven innings the last time he faced the Dog Hairs.

Marcus Stroman has turned the corner in the second half of the season. He’s visiting the Baby Yankees aka los Yanquis bebé. Their lineup is seriously pukey. Do watch out for freshly minted cleanup hitter Didi Gregorius. Or, you know, don’t.

If you want a bargain, Mike Montgomery has the con versus the strikeout prone Milwaukee Brewers. Basically every dollar I’ve made playing DFS in the second half of the season has come via exploiting the Brewers.

Stack Targets: Ariel Miranda, Albert Suarez, Jarred Cosart, Bryan Mitchell, Kyle Gibson, Brock Stewart, Doug Fister, Jorge de la Rosa, Matt Garza, Cashner, A.J. Griffin

3. SaberSim Observations

SaberSim says Price, Syndergaard, Strasburg, Carrasco, and Smyly. Where’s the fun in that? The projections do have Stewart in the top 10, sandwiched between Jameson Taillon and Duffy. Stewart is cheap and volatile.

Stacks of destiny include the Coors game, Cubs, Nationals, Trouts, and Blue Jays. Per SaberSim, there are a couple massive stacks and a smattering of individual picks at the top of the pile.

4. Tomorrow’s Targets 

Pitchers to Start: It’s happening…Ivan Nova has precisely one bad start since joining the Pirates rotation. He’s 4-0 in six starts with 6.75 K/9, 0.48 BB/9, a 2.89 ERA, and 3.38 xFIP. Bear in mind, he can’t possibly maintain that walk rate. When that regresses, his xFIP will be back in the 4.00 or higher range. Still, it’s always fun to see a guy get Searaged.

Also consider: Dan Straily, Junior Guerra

Pitchers to Exploit: Lots of people will suggest using David Paulino tomorrow on account of his crunchy crust and gooey prospecty center. Paulino was somehow acquired as a throw-in for Jose Veras despite actual potential on the mound. In the minors, he’s posted big strikeout rates and good walk rates. As best as I can find, there isn’t enough command to be confident about his debut.

Also consider: Alex Cobb, CC Sabathia, Alec Asher, A.J. Cole, Derek Holland, Jeff Hoffman, Clayton Richard

Hitters (power): I made fun of Didi Gregorius earlier. However, he has a nice role in the middle of the Yankees lineup, and he’s opposed by a very bad version of Alex Cobb. Eno wrote about Cobb’s crappy splitter yesterday. Bad splitters fly long distances. And at Yankee Stadium, a moderate distance will do.

Also consider: Stephen Cardullo, Ryan Raburn, Alex Dickerson, Ryan Schimpf, Yangervis Solarte, Franklin Gutierrez, Josh Bell, Ryan Howard

Hitters (speed): We haven’t talked much about Freddy Galvis who has a painful .236/.271/.393 line but also 16 home runs and 13 stolen bases. He’s up against Triple-A pitcher A.J. Cole. Mark my words, Galvis is the next Zack Cozart. He’s a stout defender with physical tools and room to grow as a hitter. Galvis has been around forever, but he’s also only 26. Cozart’s offensive breakout came in his age 29 season.

Also consider: Travis Jankowski, Leonys Martin, Ben Revere, Cesar Hernandez

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The Link.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.