The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for September 29

Agenda

1. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
2. Daily DFS
3. SaberSim Observations
4. Tomorrow’s Targets
5. Factor Grid

1. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard

Yesterday’s contest didn’t run. Sad face. Let’s make today happen on DraftKings.

2. Daily DFS 

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: Two of 12 games are early. They’re both storms risks. In other words, don’t bother trying one of the tiny tourneys. Daniel Norris, Robbie Ray, and Joe Ross would be interesting in other circumstances.

Late: While the 10 games this evening lack an overwhelming ace, there are plenty of above average, high ceiling pitchers. We covered the whole troop of them yesterday. Shall we rinse and repeat?

With Giants battling for their lives, they’ll be torn between sending Johnny Cueto the distance and preserving his arm. I’m sure the club would be more confident getting Cueto out of there after five innings if the bullpen was pitching better. The Giants are opposed by Jon Gray. He’s gone strikeout crazy with 26 in his last 13 innings. The Giants aren’t strikeout prone.

Danny Duffy is an easy play today opposite Kyle Gibson. The auto-win should be in play for the surprise Cy Young contender (i.e. not Gibson). Duffy is coming off his worst outing in a long time, but that was against a tough Tigers offense. He’s cruised through the Twins lineup all season.

Dan Straily versus Alex Reyes – which side you got? In one corner, we have a contact management guy up against a deep St. Louis lineup. The game is at Busch Stadium which seemingly helps Straily. The challenger is Reyes, a prospect with the raw stuff to post 10 strikeouts in fewer than six innings. Straily undoubtedly has the longer leash of the pair, but he costs more with less visually impressive stuff.

Chris Archer has pitched well in the second half. Jose Quintana has pitched well. Period. Neither the White Sox nor Rays offenses are particularly adept at the whole run production thing. Either pitcher has the capacity to challenge for the top performance of the day in a game that doesn’t matter in the slightest. Watch out for storms.

Others to consider include Ivan Nova, Ariel Miranda, Christian Friedrich, Marcus Stroman, Julio Urias, and Jeremy Hellickson.

Stack Targets: Rob Zastryzny, Gibson, Josh Collmenter, Henry Owens

3. SaberSim Observations

Reyes, Urias, Cueto, Quintana, and Duffy top the spreadsheet. As is occasionally the case with SaberSim, the average inning projections for Reyes and Urias are overly bullish. I’d put their mean at somewhere around 4.9 innings (i.e. more than four and two-thirds and less than five). That means they also aren’t the most likely pitchers to earn a victory.

Tigers, Bleu Jeys, Braves, Indians, Cubs, and Mariners feature prominently among the stacking options.

4. Tomorrow’s Targets 

Pitchers to Start: A reminder that ownership rate no longer informs this section. Anyone who might be available is listed.

Among the most available names, Mets breakout Robert Gsellman is probably the most tempting opposite the Phillies. He seems to be doing it all – strikeouts, ground balls, a low hard hit rate, and few home runs allowed. Regression is coming, but it need not be disastrous. Nor must it happen tomorrow.

Also consider: Marco Estrada, Rick Porcello, Michael Pineda, A.J. Cole, Jason Hammel, Brandon Finnegan, Matt Andriese, Carlos Rodon, Chad Bettis, Tyler Walker, Brad Peacock, Rich Hill

Pitchers to Exploit: Jordan Zimmermann might look a little out of place in the scrub barrel. Especially since we’re in desperation days when a pulse is sometimes half the battle. Aside from one gem against the Royals (June 19), Zimmermann has pitched terribly over his last 35 innings (9.26 ERA) – a span that began on June 8. Since then, injuries have conspired to make him even less trustworthy.

Also consider: Yovani Gallardo, Andrew Cashner, Alec Asher, Matt Wisler, Tyler Duffey, Brent Suter, Adam Plutko, Edwin Jackson, Braden Shipley, Jhoulys Chacin, Raul Alcantara

Hitters (power): Melky Cabrera is probably best used (by real clubs) as a 3.5 outfielder. You shouldn’t mind starting him, but you should always be looking to improve. On the White Sox, he plays the role of second best hitter. No wonder they suck.

Also consider: Seth Smith (foot), Adam Lind, Ryon Healy, Mitch Haniger, Ryan Schimpf, Hunter Renfroe, Alex Dickerson, Josh Bell, Stephen Cardullo, Derek Dietrich, Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner

Hitters (speed): Jose Peraza remains you best chance at a meaningful gain in stolen bases.

Also consider: Leonys Martin, Jarrod Dyson, Terrance Gore, Tim Anderson, Ender Inciarte, Jace Peterson, Cameron Maybin

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Four games are looking pretty iffy at the moment including both afternoon contests.

The Link.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.