The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for September 26

Agenda

1. Two Things…
2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
3. Daily DFS
4. SaberSim Observations
5. Tomorrow’s Targets
6. Factor Grid

1. Two Things…

When there is a terror attack, comedians like John Oliver and Trevor Noah have the awkward job of apologizing for the humor that’s to come. The baseball equivalent is the death of a player. It happens every few years. Jose Fernandez will be missed. Bitterly at first, then with increasing nostalgia. Someday, we’ll all be ready to smile when we recall his exploits. It’s tragic anytime we lose somebody before their time. It’s especially tragic when that somebody is a 24-year-old hero with a Hall of Fame future.

As they say, the show must go on. On Saturday, I reported my plan to remove all my pitchers in my H2H semi-final. During the regular season, I would have kept the whole lineup in play in the hopes of accruing as many points as possible. In the playoffs, all I had to do was force a 6-6 tie (I held the tie breaker). I won 7-4. I would have won without pulling the pitchers too, but this method was substantially safer. My opponent needed roughly a 30 strikeout, zero walk performance over the weekend to catch me in K/BB. Five of the offensive stats were similarly out of reach. If I had left the pitchers in, there was a chance I could have made it easier for my opponent to catch me in K/BB and WHIP.

2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard

It’s the final countdown. One week and five TDG contests remaining. We’re back on DraftKings today.

3. Daily DFS 

We’re working with 10 games today, all at night. We’re officially at the point of the season when division winners start to coast. Corey Kluber and Kyle Hendricks may be the most expensive and best pitchers in the slate, but they’ll probably pitch no more than seven innings. Both studs derive much of their value from complete game potential.

As was recently noted by August Fagerstrom, the Nationals have their own copy of Hendrick. His name is Tanner Roark. The righty isn’t quite as good as Hendricks on a stuff or command level, but he’s more than talented enough to manage quality of contact. He should be unpopular opposite the Diamondbacks. I anticipate seven strong innings.

Digging deeper, you’ll find a number of GPP options. For the most part, these starters have the ability to pitch deep into the game, but they usually don’t. Such is the case with Collin McHugh opposite the Mariners. Six of his last 10 starts have gone for fewer than six innings. He’s also tossed a couple seven inning gems in there. His opponent, Hisashi Iwakuma, more consistently pitches into the sixth and seventh inning, but his ceiling might be a little lower. Both the Mariners and Astros need a sweep of the series to stay in the Wild Card hunt.

Four pitchers are in line for easy wins. Bartolo Colon may have the hardest route to victory against an undoubtedly demoralized Marlins lineup. If I was a Marlin, I know I’d be up there taking wild, undisciplined hacks. That plays right into Colon’s strength.

Sean Manaea will face the Angels. More importantly, his Athletics get to thump upon Jered Weaver. The soft-tossing righty is homer prone, and the Angels bullpen is a disaster. Jaime Garcia (vs. CIN) and Drew Smyly (@CWS) should notch the double-you too.

Stack Targets: Buck Farmer, Matt Garza, Weaver, Luis Severino, James Shields, Adam Conley, Tim Adleman, Chad Kuhl, Martin Perez

4. SaberSim Observations

Garcia, Kluber, J.A. Happ, McHugh, and Smyly are the top picks today. Garcia gets top honors because he’s the most likely to earn a win. I have nothing against the Happ pick against the Yankees. Stacks include Nationals, Trouts, Rays, Brewers, Rangers, Cubs, White Sox, Blue Jays, and Cardinals.

5. Tomorrow’s Targets 

Pitchers to Start: I’ll just comment briefly on a few of these picks. I know Wainwright is available in at least some leagues because I’m streaming him on a couple competitive rosters. Similarly, I assume somebody panicked and dropped Cueto recently. Maybe not in your league though. De Leon will be the popular pickup against the Padres. If you need a win, you may be better off with an Eickhoff or even Nolasco.

Also consider: Jerad Eickhoff, Julio Teheran, Ian Kennedy, Adam Wainwright, Ricky Nolasco, Jose De Leon, Johnny Cueto.

Pitchers to Exploit: I’m sure we all want to see the old Alex Cobb, but he just isn’t back yet. Without a weaponized splitter, he’s extremely hit and homer prone. Playing at The Cell won’t help.

Also consider: Luis Cessa, Zack Godley, Ryan Vogelsong, Mike Clevinger, Tom Koehler, Jose Berrios, Jimmy Nelson, A.J. Griffin, Robert Stephenson, Daniel Mengden, Paul Clemens, German Marquez

Hitters (power): Over the years, no team has supplied more streaming picks than the San Diego Padres. If you can figure out who is going to start tomorrow, they’re once again a solid option for a spot start.

Also consider: Ryan Schimpf, Alex Dickerson, Jon Jay, Hunter Renfroe, Chase Utley, C.J. Cron, Seth Smith, Adam Lind, Melky Cabrera, Freddy Galvis, Andrew Benintendi

Hitters (speed): Hernan Perez’s ownership has fallen to 55 percent. He’s still stealing bases while batting cleanup or fifth. What more is there to say? Oh, I know, he’s opposed by Griffin at a hitter friendly park.

Also consider: Angel Pagan, Denard Span, Travis Jankowski, Manuel Margot, Jose Peraza, Tim Anderson, Hernan Perez, Jarrod Dyson, Ender Inciarte, Roman Quinn, Cesar Hernandez, Cameron Maybin,

6. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The Link.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.