The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for September 14

Agenda

1. Walker
2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
3. Daily DFS
4. SaberSim Observations
5. Tomorrow’s Targets
6. Factor Grid

1. Walker

This is where I apologize for steering so many people away from Taijuan Walker yesterday. The righty fired a complete game shutout with 11 strikeouts and nearly managed a perfect game. Prior to last night, Walker had looked terrible since returning from the disabled list in late August. His velocity was running on the light side, his command was at the bad end of the spectrum, and he was coughing up oodles of home runs.

It’s uncommon for a pitcher to go from bad to nearly perfect. Yesterday happened to be Walker’s first and only complete game of the season and one of just three in his career. It’s going to be tempting to roster him next week in hopes of riding yesterday’s performance. The good day is already in the past. He’s very unlikely to replicate anything like those numbers in the closing weeks of the season.

If you grabbed a share of Walker against my advice, kudos to you. If not, there will be other, easier to spot opportunities.

2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard

Yesterday’s Grind didn’t quite fill, and I wasn’t around to cheerlead on Twitter. Let’s get 20 for today. Same as always – DraftKings, $2, 20 users.

3. Daily DFS 

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: The Rays and Blue Jays have an awkward 12:37pm ET start time. They’ve been left out of DFS contests. Four games are a part of the early slate, and boy do we have aces aplenty.

Clayton Kershaw threw 66 pitches in three innings last week. Expect about 80 to 85 pitches today – especially if he’s more efficient. He’s visiting a very beatable Yankees offense.

Madison Bumgarner has the relatively easy job of dismantling the San Diego Padres. The Friars were lefty mashers earlier this season, but the roster has adjusted substantially. Now they’re better versus right-handed pitching.

Either side of Jon Lester at Carlos Martinez is tempting. CMart is the higher variance option, and he has the tough task of navigating the Cubs lineup. Lester is more consistent and likelier to toss a complete game. However, the Cardinals offense is no walk in the park either.

Beyond the aces, you’ll find Tanner Roark opposed by the Mets.

Stack Targets: Michael Pineda, Luis Perdomo, Robert Gsellman

Late: Jose Fernandez is the leftover ace for the evening. Week after week, I explain why I’m edgy about using an expensive pitcher capped at seven innings. As he proved last week, seven innings is plenty of time to post a huge score. The issue is that you need a 10+ strikeout night out of him to earn a positive return on a $13,000 investment.

Beyond Fernandez, the field is confusing. You can try a Fernandez fade by using Julio Teheran against the Marlins, but I can’t justify a $10,300 price when comparable pitchers like Yordano Ventura cost nearly $4,000 less. Ventura, for what it’s worth, is hosting the Athletics.

Rick Porcello is tempting for his omnipresent complete game potential. Porcello generally produces long quality starts with modest strikeout totals. With the Orioles on the other side of the ledger today, he’s likely to produce a high or low score. I’m more comfortable with him in GPPs than cash games.

Most of the bargains have disqualifying warts. Joe Musgrove versus Derek Holland is as cheap as I’d go. There’s nothing wrong with trying Hisashi Iwakuma, Carlos Rodon, or Kevin Gausman. The latter of the trio has to silence a tricky Red Sox lineup, but he did recently survive the Tigers.

Stack Targets: Sean Manaea, Junior Guerra, Rubby de la Rosa, Josh Tomlin, Tim Adleman, Anibal Sanchez, Tyler Duffey, Steven Brault, Jake Thompson, Jeff Hoffman

4. SaberSim Observations

The top five per the simulator are Fernandez, Bumgarner, Kershaw, Lester, and…de la Rosa?!?! The first four are no surprise, but it’s hard to picture de la Rosa lasting five innings let along contributing a solid DFS score. This is a case where SaberSim is lacking some details. CMart is next in line.

Stackables include Nationals, Pirates, Astros, Trou, Brewers, Red Sox, Reds, Blue Jays, and Rockies.

5. Tomorrow’s Targets 

Pitchers to Start: The Cubs bumped Mike Montgomery from the rotation over the weekend then decided he’s back in action. They confused me out of starting him in a weekly league! Monty draws the Brewers, a team he recently held to two hits and one run over five innings (six strikeouts). The Brewers tend to post big strikeout totals. Montgomery has only reached five innings twice since joining the Cubs (four starts) and has never pitched beyond the fifth.

Also consider: Blake Snell, Chad Kuhl, Jerad Eickhoff

Pitchers to Exploit: I get asked about Mike Clevinger with some frequency – mostly because he looks like he should one day be a good major league pitcher. I don’t disagree with that assessment, but he’s just not there yet. The White Sox offense is far from scary, but U.S. Cellular Field is a tough park for a new pitcher.

Also consider: Mike Pelfrey, Hector Santiago, James Shields, Yovani Gallardo, Daniel Mengden, Edinson Volquez, Archie Bradley, Daniel Wright

6. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The Link.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.