The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for May 5 by Brad Johnson May 5, 2016 Agenda Tulo Talks The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard Daily DFS SaberSim Observations Tomorrow’s Targets Factor Grid 1. Tulo Talks Troy Tulowitzki is having a weird season. His season line of .160/.267/.320 is terrible. If this were 2009, we would observe his .175 BABIP and say better days are coming. The BABIP probably will regress, but it’s also incorrect to say he’s been unlucky. His line drive rate is a mere 7.4 percent. League average is typically about 21 percent. Line drives produce most hits. While we can’t say Tulo was unlucky, we should still expect his line drive rate to regress back towards his career numbers. Here’s where we need a scouting report. Last year, the talk around the industry was that Tulowitzki had lost lower half explosiveness – this was while he was still a Rockie. He’s still a shadow of himself at the plate this year. He’s trying to adjust to diminished physical talent, but that forces him to swing earlier – exposing him to quality offspeed stuff. In 2014, he posted a typical-for-him 15.2 percent strikeout rate. Last year, it was 21.3 percent. Now he’s up to 28.4 percent strikeouts. He might benefit from modest regression here too, but the punch outs smell mostly real. The thing is, he’s still hitting the ball relatively hard – 30 percent hard hit rate. Don’t hold him in traditional fantasy leagues. In DFS, I could justify selecting him against particularly bad pitchers. 2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard If only I could have shuffled my DK and FD lineups together last night. I came up short on both sites. Meanwhile, user davidwiles took home first place with the help of Tyler Wilson of all people. Kudos, and here’s the leaderboard. We’re back on FanDuel tonight for the nine-game evening slate. See you there. 3. Daily DFS Yesterday’s Grind Early: The Phillies and Cardinals have an afternoon game. Detroit and Cleveland will continue with their weird 6:10 start times. Carry on… Late: The other nine games are late. Jacob deGrom is so must-play that you almost have to go with somebody else on FanDuel. Despite a steep drop in velocity, deGrom has still produced good results. He was always more pitcher than thrower despite the plus velocity. He’s opposed by the Padres tonight. You know – the team with a 26 percent strikeout rate and 66 wRC+ versus right-handed pitching. The alternatives are scary. Joe Ross and Kyle Hendricks are kinda, sorta worth a glance. Hendricks has to avoid Bryce Harper’s bat while Ross has the difficult job of navigating the Cubs lineup. It’s not for you Jen. Adam Conley is coming off a four-walk, 7.2 inning no hitter. Which isn’t a real no hitter, but it’s still impressive. For his cheap price, Conley has a decent chance to actually throw more than six innings. It’s good that he’s home. It’s bad that he’s against the Diamondbacks weirdly productive offense. Kevin Gausman’s looked good and hard throwy since returning from the disabled list. A matchup against the Yankees is good news for anybody these days. I still hate to use any pitcher at Camden Yards. Stack Targets: Colin Rea, Chase Anderson, Chris Rusin, Matt Cain, Henry Owens, Alfredo Simon, Robbie Ray, Wade Miley, Erik Johnson, Derek Holland 4. SaberSim Observations SaberSim Shrugged. If you don’t pick deGrom, the projection system says it’s your own funereal. J.A. Happ, Matt Cain, Masahiro Tanaka, and Kevin Gausman round out the top five. Ray is sixth and Simon (!!!) is seventh. The tool really hates Holland versus the Bleu Jays. White Sox, Red Sox, Cubs, and Jays, and Reds, and Astros, plus Brewers make up the top stacks. Mets too. It’s a stacky day. 5. Tomorrow’s Targets Pitchers to Start: When Chad Bettis versus Madison Bumgarner is your top streaming option, it’s best to just sit it out. Bettis is actually reasonably decent when pitching at sea level. He has a career 3.87 ERA when on the road. His peripherals – besides home runs allowed – are actually better at home. Also consider: Crying Pitchers to Exploit: I’ve watched maybe half of Mat Latos innings. I’ve watched terrible pitch after terrible pitch go unpunished. Don’t be fooled by his shiny 1.84 ERA. There’s a reason he has a 4.96 xFIP – and that understates my expectations. He should be homer prone with the Cell as his home. His 89 mph sinker isn’t missing any bats. Also consider: Mike Wright, Wily Peralta, Tim Adleman, Aaron Blair, Ricky Nolasco, Doug Fister Hitters (power): If you have a deep enough bench, Seth Smith has sufficient power and run production to merit a full time spot. He’s hitting a stout .271/.388/.471 with four home runs in a pure platoon role. Also consider: Wilmer Flores, Adam Lind, Eddie Rosario, Oswaldo Arcia, Jake Lamb, Darin Ruf, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis, Stephen Vogt Hitters (speed): Coco Crisp might offer a little power AND speed at Camden Yards. He’s opposed by a terrible starting pitcher. Also consider: Jimmy Rollins, Danny Santana, Jonathan Villar 6. The Factor Grid The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions. The Link. This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.