- SaberSim Exclusions
- The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
- Daily DFS
- SaberSim Observations
- Tomorrow’s Targets
- Factor Grid
1. SaberSim Exclusions
Today’s SaberSim lesson is very simple. The tool gives you the option to exclude certain players from your roster. Today’s default lineup for the DraftKings evening slate includes a four-man Blue Jays stack against Colby Lewis. One of the players on the list is Troy Tulowitzki. He’s not squaring up the baseball this season, hence a .186 BABIP and shudder-some numbers. Let’s exclude him. Let’s also exclude Mike Fiers while we’re at it because there’s no way I’m using him tonight.
Here’s the resulting lineup.
With Fiers off the table, SaberSim wants us to go big at pitcher. On offense, it still retains two Blue Jays and audibles to a three-man Cardinals stack against Adam Morgan. Dietrich, Santana, and Odor are all big bargains on their respective prices even if they aren’t terribly exciting.
2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
Today’s contest is a repeat of yesterday – $2, 30 users on DraftKings. Here’s the link.
3. Daily DFS
Early: Seven games are early. Rain could interrupt Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, and New York. Beware.
Felix Hernandez, Stephen Strasburg, and Jon Lester are all present to absorb most of your budget. It goes without saying that you should avoid King Felix. I’m probably not going to shell out the big bucks for the other two aces either, but at least they’re at the top of their game.
The next tier has some interesting guys. Steven Matz has been modestly infuriating. He has one strong outing, one disaster, and three mediocre starts. The Mets supplied him with a win during those three lesser starts. They should once again deliver run support with Jhoulys Chacin on the bump for Atlanta. The Braves hideous offense should help Matz too.
Hector Santiago is a risky alternative. He’s slightly homer prone, and he’s on the road at homer happy Miller Park. However, he’s also transformed himself into a better pitcher this year by gaining two mph on the gun. His whiff rate has improved even though the strikeouts have held steady. He’s also showing better command. The Brewers lineup can do some damage to left-handed pitching. Santiago and the Angels should easily beat Zach Davies.
Late: The ace of the evening is Jose Fernandez. He’s struggled with his command this season and has yet to throw more than six innings. Given that he has an innings cap, it won’t surprise anyone if this is a general trend. I’m not paying.
Drew Smyly is the obvious alternative. The Dodgers just dismantled Matt Moore last night, but Smyly is a vastly superior pitcher. If he can silence the lefty mashing Blue Jays, he can handle the few Dodgers who can hit southpaws.
The evening slate involves many offense friendly ballparks. Rubby de la Rosa is visiting the best pitcher’s park of the time slot. He’s coming off arguably his best major league outing. There’s no question is has the stuff to post big DFS numbers. He’s also among the least consistent pitchers in the league. The Marlins offense lacks punch aside from a certain Giancarlo.
4. SaberSim Observations
The first nine pitchers include most of the names you expect to find atop the projections. Mike Fiers at fifth overall smells wrong to me. Upon further thought, SaberSim is obviously balancing their high ceiling against their massive downside. Remember how many times they struck out against Tanner Roark?
Tyler Chatwood is also included in the top nine. It’s true, you can happily target nearly any pitcher against the Padres. Especially right-handed pitchers. Even Chatwood.
The stacks du jour include the Angels, Blue Jays, Astros, Orioles, Cardinals, Giants, and Reds.
5. Tomorrow’s Targets
Pitchers to Start: Even though it’s Thin Thursday, you have some pitching options at your disposal. Kevin Gausman is still available in 61 percent of Yahoo leagues. The hard thrower has pitched decently since returning from the disabled list. He’s had some luck with a .207 BABIP so don’t get used to a sub-3.00 ERA. His current 8.18 K/9 and 2.45 BB/9 are reasonable approximations of his talent.
Pitchers to Exploit: This may be Alfredo Simon’s last start for the Reds. Not only are a number of pitchers working their way back from injuries, Simon has been a special brand of terrible this year. He’s throwing too many cookies as evidenced by his .479 BABIp and 27.8 percent HR/FB ratio. Walks (6.75 BB/9) have also been a problem. The Brewers feature several waiver wire bargains tomorrow.
Hitters (power): Brandon Drury hit second last night thanks to a recent hot streak. His rival, Jake Lamb, is banged up with a minor shoulder injury. Drury would get tomorrow’s start anyway since it’s against a lefty. He may bat second again.
Hitters (speed): Cesar Hernandez has more power from the right side of the plate. Mind you, we’re not talking about real power. He’s just more likely to find a gap or strike a line drive. His matchup against Jaime Garcia is a tough one.
6. The Factor Grid
The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.
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