The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for May 19 by Brad Johnson May 19, 2016 Agenda Site Preferences The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard Daily DFS SaberSim Observations Tomorrow’s Targets Factor Grid 1. Site Preferences Whenever I run the Invitational on DraftKings, I get a couple messages asking for the next day to be on FanDuel. Today, let’s talk about the factors that lead you to prefer one site over another. Here are my perceived pros and cons of the two sites. FanDuel More responsive to recent performance leading to more bargain opportunities Doesn’t heavily penalize/reward players based on matchup Single pitcher and simplified scoring makes the contests feel more random DraftKings Taut pricing based on matchups and stadium Hot and cold streaks barely affect pricing Double pitcher and (relatively) complicated scoring lends a more professional feel to the contests 2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard Sheridanhoopsfantasy won yesterday, forcing me to expand the name column on the leaderboard. In fact, all of the top three finishers were new to the leaderboard – welcome! Johnny Cueto, Nate Eovaldi, and Rajai Davis carried the day. By popular demand, today’s not-so-Thin-Thursday contest is on FanDuel. I already picked Chris Sale – you can’t have him! Here’s the link. 3. Daily DFS Yesterday’s Grind Early: Two of the 11 games are early. If you’re participating in this micro-contest. Jason Hammel versus the Brewers has to be the top pick. Nate Karns and Tyler Wilson are risky – I expect both allow upwards of four runs over five innings. Junior Guerra is your pure fade pick. Stack Targets: Guerra, Wilson, Karns Late: I was only half kidding about Sale. His matchup against the Astros is about as high variance as it gets for Sale. He’s won every start this season with a good chance to continue the streak versus Collin McHugh. While Sale has yet to reach 10 strikeouts in a game, the Astros are known for whiffing. If you prefer a more affordable ace, Stephen Strasburg is opposed by broken ace Matt Harvey. The Mets are nearly as difficult an assignment as the Astros. Jeff Samardzija is visiting San Diego. They can’t do anything versus right-handed pitching. If you prefer to roster a few of the big offensive threats, Jon Gray is the pitcher for you. The big righty is posting impressive numbers. His 4.71 ERA belies a 2.32 FIP (2.19 xFIP). A 95 mph heater and good offspeed stuff have translated to 11.30 K/9 and 2.20 BB/9. The best part – he’s at sea level tonight. Stack Targets: Kendall Graveman, Tim Adleman, Jhoulys Chacin, Mike Foltynewicz, Ervin Santana, Ivan Nova, Ross Stripling, McHugh, Josh Tomlin 4. SaberSim Observations Even though Jeff Locke is up against the terrible Braves, I can’t summon the intestinal fortitude to use him. SaberSim thinks he’s eighth best tonight. The simulator also likes Michael Wacha and Harvey much more than I do. Harvey’s issues are well published. Wacha just has trouble contributing more than six innings. I can’t tell you how many times he’s carried my roster through five innings then stalled. Cubs, Orioles, and Mariners are among the top stack. That tiny early slate might be busy. Reds, Blue Jays, Twins, and Indians also rate highly. 5. Tomorrow’s Targets Pitchers to Start: I usually suggest exploiting Matt Wisler, but I can’t hate on a matchup against the Phillies. Wisler probably won’t win, but a quality start isn’t out of the question. He has a 3.14 ERA with 5.92 K/9 and 2.03 BB/9. Once his .224 BABIP regresses, he’ll be back to looking pretty scrubby (4.88 xFIP). Also consider: Matt Andriese, Tanner Roark, Scott Kazmir Pitchers to Exploit: CC Sabathia is back just in time for the soft of lefty mashing Athletics to do their thing. Sabathia looked pretty terrible through his first five starts. He’s unlikely to be any better fresh off the disabled list. Also consider: Eddie Butler, Clay Buchholz, Dan Straily, Justin Nicolino, Dillon Gee, Colby Lewis, Mike Wright, Jake Peavy, Christian Friedrich Hitters (power): Danny Valencia is the best/most available Athletic to use against Sabathia. Since returning the disabled list, he’s hitting .455/.471/1.000 with six home runs in 34 plate appearances. He’s back to hitting cleanup. Also consider: Enrique Hernandez, Miguel Montero, Nolan Reimold, Michael Saunders, Derek Dietrich, Domingo Santana, Seth Smith, Adam Lind, Corey Dickerson, John Jaso Hitters (speed): With Carlos Gomez on the disabled list, I hope to see Tony Kemp play regularly. He was 2-for-3 with a double and a walk in his debut last night (technically, he debutted Tuesday night as a pinch runner). Kemp will probably never be a star, but he could become a valuable real and fantasy role player. Also consider: Melvin Upton, Eduardo Nunez, Michael Taylor, Rajai Davis 6. The Factor Grid The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions. The Link. This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.