The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for May 18

Agenda

1. The Three Standard Methods
2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
3. Daily DFS
4. SaberSim Observations
5. Tomorrow’s Targets
6. Factor Grid

1. The Three Standard Methods

Yesterday, I was thinking about how people usually build their DFS lineups. I typically make just one lineup. Sometimes I’ll diversify a certain position if I’m torn between two players with the same cost. I don’t have the fortitude or bankroll to manage a multi-entry practice.

The multi-entry approach depends upon spiking occasional gems. If you throw 25 different lineups into the FanDuel squeeze, your chances to actually spike a lineup are still very small. Think about it, 1:23,000 is not much different than 25:23,000 – 0.0000434782609 compared to 0.00108695652. If a solo lineup places, you make money. If a handful of multi-entry lineups place without going nuts, you still lose money.

So, assuming you’re a soloist like me, there are three ways to build your lineup. You can pick the pitcher first and fit the rest, pick the offense and fit, or use a tool. In my experience, the pitcher approach is the easiest and most popular of the two purist methods. Obviously, it’s easy to give total control to a simulator like SaberSim, but I always find problems in the default lineup. Those sorts of tools usually help me to pick one or two players – not the entire lineup.

From a perspective of lineup differentiation, all three approaches will lump you into the pack without some serious tinkering.

2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard

I screwed up yesterday and made the contest winner takes all. Themarksman13 was the beneficiary of my mistake. For the purposes of the leaderboard, I’m going to pretend the top five places were paid like normal. Mr. Marksman is now the unofficial leader, but he’s technically in fourth place overall. Sorry to those who were shorted.

Today I have correctly created the contest on DraftKings. It’s the standard $2, 30-users, top five paid.

3. Daily DFS 

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: Four of the 16 games are early. Kansas City is holding a barbecue doubleheader pitting KC style versus Boston style. No contest, right?

Of the eight pitchers, I’d consider using four of them, definitely wouldn’t use three of them, and then there’s Ian Kennedy. He may be the most physically gifted pitcher in the time slot, but I ain’t starting anybody versus the Red Sox these days.

Of those I would use, Rich Hill is the top play. Hill usually induces weak contact with suspect command. One of these games, he’s going to walk four guys AND give up seven hits. And it will be ugly. The Rangers are a tough matchup.

Steven Wright has an easier matchup versus the Royals, but how far do you really trust his knuckle ball? About as far as you can throw it? I can never get mine to work beyond 50 feet. It’s because I get on top of it too much. As for Wright, consider this a high risk, moderate reward scenario.

Justin Verlander has pitched well in five of his last six starts. The Twins offense has much in common with the Astros – it’s all power and strikeouts. Verlander could strike out 10, or he might cough up four home runs. I hope it’s not the latter – I’m starting him in ottoneu.

Behind door number four is Jeremy Hellickson. He’s your bargain of the early shift. Hellickson only have two good starts in his last six turns.

Stack Targets: Ricky Nolasco, Tom Koehler, Martin Perez

Late: We’re left with 12 in the late slate. The Indians are calling upon prospect Mike Clevinger to solve homer friendly Great American Ballpark. Clevinger, 25, doesn’t have big velocity or movement. That’s about where the scouting report ended. He posted a 3.03 ERA with 9.08 K/9 and 4.29 BB/9 at Triple-A (seven starts). Oh, and he costs $3,000 on FanDuel tonight. That’s really the only reason to consider him.

The creme de la creme consists of Johnny Cueto, David Price, Francisco Liriano, and John Lackey. All four have very strong matchups. Perhaps you share my trust issues with the quartet and prefer a cheaper alternative?

There’s no shortage of guys who could be good. However, you won’t find a single lock in the bunch. If you’re a believer in Chris Tillman (I’m not), he’s probably the most talented guy outside of the aces. I just can’t advocate a pitcher against the Mariners offense at hitter friendly Camden Yards. Just as I can’t advocate using Taijuan Walker tonight.

Stack Targets: Clevinger, Chris Rusin, Brandon Finnega, Mike Bolsinger, R.A. Dickey, Jimmy Nelson, Doug Fister, Mat Latos, Adam Wainwright, Julio Teheran

4. SaberSim Observations

Liriano, Hill, Cueto, Verlander, and Lackey round out the top five. I can’t complain with those rankings. The next three are questionable – Nate Eovaldi, Drew Pomeranz, and Wainwright. We can excuse the simulator for being confused about Waino. To me, Eovaldi doesn’t look like a good bet for a win at Chase Field. Pomeranz is getting by with a two pitch repertoire, but that won’t last forever.

The preferred stacks of the day include the Cubs, Blue Jays, Astros, Orioles, and Mariners.

5. Tomorrow’s Targets 

Pitchers to Start: It’s a sea level day for Jon Gray which means it’s worth rostering him in 12 team mixed leagues. Gray still have the difficult task of navigating a tough Cardinals lineup. They don’t have any true star power, but the entire lineup is above average.

Also consider: Jeff Locke

Pitchers to Exploit: I like Junior Guerra in the right matchups. The Cubs at Miller Park is definitely the wrong matchup. It’s too bad there aren’t streamer friendly Cubbies.

Also consider: Junior Guerra, Mike Foltynewicz, Tim Adleman, Collin McHugh, Ross Stripling, Jhoulys Chacin, Ivan Nova, Kendall Graveman

Hitters (power): If you’re in need of a plug-and-play catcher, Miguel Montero will be the most available Cub versus Guerra. He even stole a base yesterday!

Also consider: Khris Davis, Danny Valencia, Chase Utley, C.J. Cron, Mike Napoli, Jeff Francoeur, Scooter Gennett, Seth Smith, Adam Lind

Hitters (speed): I keep forgetting Jimmy Rollins still bats second for the White Sox. So long as that keeps up, he’s a daily target for speed. I like just about anybody versus McHugh although the matchup isn’t particularly great for Rollins – he’s prone to hitting infield flies.

Also consider: Eduardo Nunez, Rajai Davis, Jonathan Villar

6. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The Link.

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