The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for May 16

Agenda

1. Fight, Fight, Fight
2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
3. Daily DFS
4. SaberSim Observations
5. Tomorrow’s Targets
6. Factor Grid

1. Fight, Fight, Fight

If you happened to miss yesterday’s brawl between the Blue Jays and Rangers, take a moment to catch up.

Fights are still fun, huh?

From a fantasy perspective, a few suspensions are on the way. Jose Bautista and Rougned Odor are all but guaranteed to miss a handful of games. Kevin Pillar may lose a couple. Less importantly, Matt Bush and Jesse Chavez probably have a short suspension to serve for intentionally hitting batters. I’m sure somebody else will get dinged as part of the fracas.

2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard

Saturday’s contest winner was Vikingsguy. The only players who didn’t go wild on his roster were Jake Lamb and J.D. Martinez. Meanwhile, overall leader rpimble tallied more winnings. I’m starting to get jealous.

We’re back on DraftKings today for a 30 user contest. See you there!

If you need a referral to DraftKings, they’re actually running a good special through May 24. If you sign up through a referral link, you get $25 of free tickets – a $12, two $5, and one $3. You’ll also get access to their beginner games. If you’ve been on the fence about playing DFS, now is a good time to toss in a few dollars. Full disclosure, I get the same ticket pack if you sign up through me. So I’m rooting to see you in the TDG Invitational.

3. Daily DFS 

Cleveland likes to start their home games at 6:10pm. You won’t be using them in DFS tonight. Watch out in Kansas City tonight. The current weather report has me putting the odds of a rainout at 90 percent.

I wish Jordan Zimmermann didn’t cost so much tonight, but that’s what happens when you consistently pitch well. He’s opposed by the Twins, and he’s made a habit of pitching deep into his outings. That’s the triple whammy – more points for innings, more strikeout opportunities, and a better chance for a win.

The regression monster is hunting Kenta Maeda who by all rights should have a 3.80 ERA (or thereabouts). He could stave off destiny for one more start. The Los Angeles Trouts still haven’t figured out how to use Mike Trout in more than one lineup slot.

Rick Porcello continues to roll. Is there a Rick roll joke in there? You betcha, but I only danced around it. You’re welcome. On a serious note, the Royals made Mike Foltynewicz look like an “actual major league pitcher.” How can they possibly hit an actual “actual major league pitcher?”

The Phillies may be winning games, but their offense is el terrible. Adam Conley should turn in a nice outing against them. It’s too bad he costs $8,300 on FD and $8,200 on DK. That’s a little pricey for his body of work.

If you want to get cute, Chad Green costs $3,000 on FanDuel. In other words, you can almost roster the eight most expensive hitters. Over the last three years in the minors, Green has compiled around 8.50 K/9, 2.50 BB/9, and a 3.00 ERA. Don’t count on more than five innings versus the Diamondbacks.

Stack Targets: Green, Sean Manaea, Jose Berrios, Williams Perez, Derek Holland, Matt Shoemaker, Yordano Ventura, J.A. Happ, Drew Smyly

4. SaberSim Observations

I didn’t mention Robbie Ray above, but I thought he was a viable, sneaky pick. SaberSim says he’s the flat out top play of the night. It passes the smell test. The Yankees lineup is just so wimpy versus left-handed pitching. Happ, Conley, Maeda, and Porcello round out the top five.

If you’re paying attention to the actual scores, almost nothing separates Ray from third-worst projected Jon Niese. Fewer than five points on FanDuel and only four on DraftKings. I’m actually surprised Niese himself isn’t higher. The Braves have a 40 wRC+ versus left-handed pitching, and Perez is the only pitcher with a truly bad projection tonight.

The top stacks include the Marlins, Blue Jays, Rays, and Pirates.

5. Tomorrow’s Targets 

Pitchers to Start: Juan Nicasio floats between the “to start” and “to exploit” sections based on his matchup. Tomorrow, he has the pleasure of facing the Braves at PNC Park. I don’t think Nicasio will last too much longer in the rotation – he’s an obvious fit for the bullpen once Jameson Tallion and Tyler Glasnow are activated. Look at Nicasio as a streamer only in most leagues.

Also consider: Wei-Yin Chen, Kyle Hendricks

Pitchers to Exploit: You have your pick of the litter when it comes to bad pitchers. I laughed when I saw Branden Pinder was starting for the Yankees tomorrow. He’s fine as a reliever with his fastball-slider combo. I just don’t see this turning out well if he throws more than three innings.

Also consider: Alfredo Simon, Wade Miley, Ubaldo Jimenez, Aaron Blair, Phil Hughes, Mike Pelfrey, Chase Anderson, Chris Rusin, Eric Surkamp, Jered Weaver, Colin Rea

Hitters (power): After torching Triple-A pitching, the Phillies are giving former prospect Tommy Joseph a chance to fill Darin Ruf’s eminently fill-able shoes. Joseph offers power with decent contact skills – at least that was the case in the minors. We’ll see how he adjusts in the majors.

Also consider: Chase Utley, Drew Stubbs, Jake Lamb, Steven Moya, John Jaso, Nolan Reimold, Seth Smith, Adam Lind

Hitters (speed): Rajai Davis doesn’t have the platoon advantage. Use him anyway. He’ll reach base one way or another versus Simon.

Also consider: Jonathan Villar, Eduardo Nunez, Danny Santana

6. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The Link.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.