The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for June 27

Agenda

1. The New Guy Bounce
2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
3. Daily DFS
4. SaberSim Observations
5. Tomorrow’s Targets
6. Factor Grid

1. The New Guy Bounce

With the exception of elite, mega-hyped prospects, pitchers usually challenge new hitters. That can result in a power binge like Trevor Story at the start of the season or Tim Anderson’s three home runs over the past week. Once hitters show an ability to punish aggressive fastballs, pitchers start testing out a steady diet of breaking balls. Wither Trevor Story. Anderson will probably follow suit.

Were I a major league pitcher, I would assume the new guy made the majors because he could hit the ol’ straight ball. He wouldn’t see a fastball in the zone until he proved he could hit a bender. Challenge fastballs just seem like an obviously inefficient tactic. Sometimes, I wonder if it’s a lack of respect for non-elite prospects rather than an actual intentional strategy.

As for fantasy use case, it’s often wise to shop your shiny prospects after a quick start in the majors. Sometimes you miss out on a core performer. Usually, you’ll extract peak value. You may get an opportunity to reacquire the same guy off waivers later in the year. Even mecha-prospects like Nomar Mazara can cool off (.200/.250/.257 since June 7). Conversely, be wary about buying a prospect a couple weeks into a hot start. They almost always cool off.

2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard

The free contest on Saturday was won by Sawyer77 whose choice of Kenta Maeda backfired only to be bailed out by a ridiculous Astros stack. Congrats. We’ll be heading back to FanDuel for one more contest before switching to DraftKings tomorrow.

3. Daily DFS 

Early: The Pirates are hosting the lonely early game, pitting Scott Kazmir versus Francisco Liriano. It probably wouldn’t have had any major effect in DFS today.

Late: The other 10 games are late. Jake Arrieta costs a fortune, but I’d rather pay $1,100 less (on FanDuel) for Noah Syndergaard. Arrieta is pitching at homer prone Great American Ballpark while Thor has pitcher neutral Nationals Stadium. Arrieta’s only allowed two home runs this season, but I’d bet on a third tonight.

I’m starting to believe in Trevor Bauer’s breakout. When a player becomes remarkably better due to simple pitch usage, it’s smart to wait for hitters to adjust before paying full price in a trade. Luckily, us DFS folks can take a risk without ruining our entire season. Bauer has as high a ceiling as anyone tonight opposite the Braves. I bet he’ll be ragingly popular.

The less exciting version of Bauer is splitter specialist Matt Shoemaker. Six of his last seven outings have gone for more than seven innings. The Astros are a high variance opponent with the chance to bash multiple home runs or roll over for 12 strikeouts. Or both. Shoemaker is a pure GPP-only option.

Adam Wainwright’s looked more like his old self lately. He’s not quite there, but his early season struggles seem to be behind him. A rested Vince Velasquez will make his return from the disabled list at Chase Field. I’ll watch from a distance. Joe Ross is opposite Syndergaard if you want a good fade.

Two cheap alternatives include Robbie Ray versus the Phillies and Daniel Mengden against the Giants. Ray has performed predictably well against bad opponents this season including a 45 point outing opposite the Phillies on June 17. This time he’s at home in Arizona. Mengden has pitched well through three starts, and he’ll have AT&T Park on his side tonight. It’s still a tough matchup now that the Giants have stopped losing games.

Stack Targets: John Gant, Dan Straily, Chi Chi Gonzalez, Eduardo Rodriguez, Blake Snell, Ivan Nova, Jon Gray, Marco Estrada

4. SaberSim Observations

Recent performance drives most of my expectations tonight. Thus I have some points of disagreement with SaberSim. We both pick Arrieta as the top pitcher – no surprise. Syndergaard isn’t currently on the list – I assume he’d be second. Ray, Snell, and Velasquez round out the top five. I expect a short outing from VV. While I like Snell, I’ll pass on any pitcher opposite the Red Sox.

The top stacks include the Coors game, Cubs, Yankees, and Pirates.

5. Tomorrow’s Targets 

Pitchers to Start: It’s not a good day for stream starters. CC Sabathia has a tough matchup against the Rangers tomorrow. Since returning from the disabled list on May 20, Sabathia has a 1.96 ERA (4.44 xFIP) with 8.27 K/9 and 3.48 BB/9. His most recent outing was a 4.1 inning, six-run stinker. Regression is coming.

Also consider: Rick Porcello, Julio Urias

Pitchers to Exploit: Truthfully, you could probably stream Albert Suarez at baseball’s pitcher friendliest park opposite an inconsistent Athletics offense. Suarez is a pitch-to-contact guy filling the role of Chris Heston this season. Going forward, I’m expecting about a 4.20 ERA to go with 5.50 K/9 and 2.50 BB/9.

Also consider: Mike Pelfrey, Matt Wisler, John Lamb, Kyle Gibson, J.A. Happ, Eddie Butler, Tim Lincecum, Jon Niese, Ubaldo Jimenez, Erik Johnson, Kendall Graveman

Hitters (power): Petco Park is secretly decent for left-handed home run bats. Enter Pedro Alvarez. Since homering on May 24, the streaky power bat is slashing .294/.338/.632 with seven of his eight home runs. He’s opposed by a terrible starting pitcher too.

Also consider: Hyun-soo Kim, Jon Jay, Francisco Gutierrez, Dae-ho Lee, Chris Iannetta, Mark Reynolds, Ryan Raburn, Justin Smoak, Michael Saunders, Kevin Pillar, Ezequiel Carrera, Chase Utley, Martin Prado

Hitters (speed): The Giants are using Angel Pagan in increasingly valuable roles. After moving up to fifth or sixth in recent weeks, he batted second yesterday for the first time since May 1. Joe Panik was on the bench, but it’s worth noting that Pagan knocked four hits. He could get another shot ahead of the big bats. He’s hitting .297/.341/.424 with seven steals.

Also consider:Whit Merrifield, Cameron Maybin

6. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Watch out for rain in D.C. and Atlanta.

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