The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for June 14

Agenda

1. Partial Fades for GPPs
2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
3. Daily DFS
4. SaberSim Observations
5. Tomorrow’s Targets
6. Factor Grid

1. Partial Fades for GPPs

Stacks are a big deal in DFS. They’re an easy way to maximize points, but they also help you to manage your floor. It’s relatively easy to guess the Marlins would beat up on Colin Rea and the Padres bullpen. It’s harder to pick the exact guys to target. With Giancarlo Stanton on the bench last night, Marcell Ozuna was obviously the man to own. He went 1-for-4 with a run and a walk (9.2 FD points). The actual top performers were Martin Prado, Ichiro Suzuki, and Adeiny Hechavarria.

When a popular stack has one must-play guy, sometimes it’s better to skip rostering him. If the stack goes off without the help of the big name, you’ll be a (small) step ahead of the competition. Of course, you still need to successfully identify who will play the role of Khris Davis, not to mention actually roster Prado, Suzuki, and Hechavarria. Remember, when it comes to GPPs, you have three jobs.

• Manage ceiling
• Manage floor
• Manage popularity (overlap with competitors)

You want high octane guys to give you an actual shot to win big money. You also want a chance at winning the small money too even if your team doesn’t fire on all cylinders. Most importantly, to actually flat-out win a GPP, you have to possess unique elements. These often hurt your floor and ceiling some small amount yet still increase your odds at winning the grand prize – like benching Ozuna.

2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard

It’s a crazy day when 170 points doesn’t even get you close to cashing in GPPs. New guy javierbyrant tallied 219 points for the win yesterday. Max Scherzer, Khris Davis, and Jose Abreu led the way for his roster. The leaderboard is updated.

We’re on DraftKings today. See you there.

3. Daily DFS 

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: The Phillies and Blue Jays play at noon-thirty. Why, you ask? Why are you asking me, I retort.

Late: Madison Bumgarner is the obvious big arm tonight. He’s pitching at home against the Brewers. Matt Garza is making his return from the disabled list in Wily Peralta’s place. Garza’s a wild card, but Bumgarner should still have a good shot at a win.

Other big names include John Lackey, Jacob deGrom, and David Price. Lackey has a tough assignment versus the Nationals, deGrom has an equally tough job opposite the Pirates, and Price has the high volatility game hosting Baltimore’s Jekyll/Hyde lineup.

Beyond the big arms, Drew Pomeranz is interesting but expensive against Tom Koehler. It’s funny that the Athletics signed actual Rich Hill then gave away his younger clone. Pom’s curve should be enough to handle the Marlins.

There are a couple games in which I like both sides of the matchup. Kenta Maeda will visit Archie Bradley at Chase Field. Julio Teheran and Brandon Finnegan both look usable in Atlanta. Jake Odorizzi and Taijaun Walker have occasional studly outings.

Last but not least, Josh Tomlin has an easy route to victory opposite broken Chris Young. The spacious outfield of Kauffman Stadium should help Tomlin to combat his home run problems.

Stack Targets: Eric Surkamp, Young, Jorge de la Rosa, Nathan Eovaldi, Garza, Miguel Gonzalez, Doug Fister, Martin Perez, Jhoulys Chacin, Tom Koehler, Gio Gonzalez

4. SaberSim Observations

I thought DraftKings was a little crazy when pricing Pomeranz, but SaberSim lists him as the number two guy behind Bumgarner. I’m sure there’s an uncouth joke sitting on the tee. Price, Gonzalez, and Teheran round out the top five.

The Coors game, Red Sox, White Sox, and Dodgers are among the top stacks per our favorite daily projections.

5. Tomorrow’s Targets 

Pitchers to Start: Anthony DeSclafani survived his 2016 debut, but it wasn’t pretty. He notched just two strikeouts with three walks. He only allowed one run; a solo homer. Most importantly, he looked back to normal. For him, normal is around 7.50 K/9 with a  4.00 ERA. That plays when it’s opposed by the terrible Atlanta offense.

Also consider: Derek Holland

Pitchers to Exploit: The Padres aren’t terrible against left-handed pitching. Meanwhile, Justin Nicolino has been treading water with none-stuff for nine starts. He’s way overdue for a 1.2 inning, 9 run meltdown. Perhaps the Padres can be the surprise providers.

Also consider: Justin Nicolino, Ivan Nova, Chad Bettis, Pat Corbin, Tyler Wilson, Bud Norris, Jeff Locke, Drew Smyly, Collin McHugh, Adam Wainwright, Mike Pelfrey, Hector Santiago, Tyler Duffey, Sonny Gray

Hitters (power): I get questions about Robbie Grossman since I seem to be driving the bandwagon. “Should I stream him tomorrow,” is a common question I receive. No, you should not stream him. His ownership rate may only be four percent, but he’s a must-own in any 12-team league with five outfielders. He’s a must-own in any OBP league. He’s a must-own in any keeper format that rewards waiver wire pickups. Clear? He’s not a guy to stream, he’s a guy to own.

Also consider: Logan Morrison, Brad Miller, Franklin Gutierrez, Dae-ho Lee, Chris Iannetta, Danny Valencia, Josh Phegley, Mat Adams, Michael Saunders, Tommy Joseph, Enrique Hernandez, Trayce Thompson, Yangervis Solarte, Derek Norris, Rob Refsnyder, Didi Gregorius

Hitters (speed): Tim Anderson led off yesterday and went 1-for-7. Maybe he’ll lead off again. Probably he’ll go back to ninth in the order. Anderson’s one major league ready skill as a hitter is his speed. Calling him up was a desperation move by the White Sox, but we can potentially benefit in the interim.

Also consider: Rajai Davis, Mallex Smith, Melvin Upton

6. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Still in full rush mode. Weather ratings will be back next week. Watch for storms.

The Link.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.