The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for June 11

Agenda

1. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
2. Daily DFS
3. SaberSim Observations
4. Tomorrow’s Targets
5. Factor Grid

1. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard

Fourseasons rode Clayton Kershaw and Xander Bogaerts to victory. Congrats. The leaderboard is updated.

We’re doing a free afternoon game on FanDuel today. Come for pride and practice.

2. Daily DFS 

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: The eight game early slate is Jake Arrieta time. He costs a pretty penny opposite the Braves. Alternatively, you could pay an ugly penny for the likes of Chris Archer versus the Astros or Jose Quintana against the Royals.

If you’re in the market for cheapies, too bad. Eduardo Rodriguez, Mike Fiers, J.A. Happ, and Dan Straily all have the potential to produce a decent outing. Unfortunately, each is much more likely to crumple. ERod doesn’t look very good at the moment, Fiers is painfully inconsistent, Happ has to defeat a tough Orioles offense, and Straily’s working at Great American Ballpark.

Stack Targets: Chris Young, Wily Peralta, Kyle Gibson, Matt Wisler, Erik Johnson, Mike Wright, Logan Verrett, Straily, Fiers, Rodriguez, Happ, Tyler Chatwood

Late: The six game late slate is much more interesting from a pitching perspective. There’s an elite ace option – Jose Fernandez at Chase Field. The only drawback to Fernandez these days is that he tops out around seven innings. He’s earned a win in eight consecutive starts. The streak includes a total of 78 strikeouts in 52 innings. If he pitched deeper into games, he’d be Kershawian.

GPP players can give Jeff Samardzija a shot. The volatile righty mixes strong eight inning outings with duds. He could singlehandedly make or break your lineup tonight. He’ll face a mid-tier Dodgers offense.

Two of the three cheapest pitchers have an actual shot at the top pitching performance. Matt Shoemaker appears to be in breakout mode. He’s fired seven or more innings with good strikeout totals over his last four starts. The Angels don’t give him much run support, and he’s still hit prone. Eight innings, 10 strikeouts, and a win are possible – 66 FanDuel points (less three per run). Trevor Bauer has pitched well recently. Neither pitcher has an easy path to victory.

Much ado about James Paxton. He magically buffed his velocity to 98 mph, touching 100 mph. The Padres didn’t care about the heat two starts ago. They piled on 10 hits in less than four innings. Paxton probably goes five or six innings with a gaudy strikeout total. At least one meltdown inning can be expected. The Rangers are a tough opponent for the southpaw.

Stack Targets: Colby Lewis, Justin Verlander, Francisco Liriano

3. SaberSim Observations

With one exception, the Sim has straightforward recommendations. JoFery, Arrieta, Archer, and Masahiro Tanaka top the charts. Listed fifth is Paxton. I don’t necessarily disagree with the projection, I’m just surprised the system adjusted to the velocity boost so quickly. A typical “feature” of projections is that they slowly react to change. And actually, I do disagree. I’d estimate a less than five percent chance he pitches into the seventh inning.

Coors Field, Brewers, White Sox, and Marlins are the places to go for stacks.

4. Tomorrow’s Targets 

Pitchers to Start: Brewers starter Zach Davies is consistently inducing positive contact outcomes. If we toss aside his first three starts in which hitters scorched everything he threw, Davies has a 2.91 ERA (4.16 FIP), 6.85 K/9, 2.28 BB/9, and a .198 BABIP. I can’t find a reason for the BABIP. The infield fly rate is only five percent. His pull and hard hit rates are roughly league average. As such, expect big regression. Still, a matchup against the injured Mets is a good thing.

Also consider: Rick Porcello

Pitchers to Exploit: Vincent Velasquez’s injury has given Adam Morgan a little more breathing room in the Phillies rotation. The mediocre left-hander has some positive indicators – most notably a 10.6 percent swinging strike rate. Unfortunately, he’s getting those whiffs in early counts. His 6.26 K/9 could use improvement. In my opinion, he throws too many strikes in predictable counts. Sometimes, a command and control guy needs to learn how to throw balls.

Also consider: Ubaldo Jimenez, Kendall Graveman, John Lamb, Dallas Keuchel, Aaron Blair, Michael Pineda, Yordano Ventura, Pat Dean, David Huff, Christian Friedrich, Eddie Butler, Robbie Ray, Adam Conley, Jake Peavy

Hitters (power): There are half a million power bats available tomorrow. None are quite as attractive as Danny Valencia at Great American Ballpark. He has the coveted platoon advantage against a homer prone pitcher at a homer prone park with a homer prone bullpen to follow.

Also consider: Danny Valencia, Trevor Brown, Chase Utley, Trayce Thompson, Brandon Drury, Rickie Weeks, Mark Reynolds, Ryan Raburn, Franklin Gutierrez, Dae-ho Lee, Chris Iannetta, Chris Heisey, Mike Napoli, Chris Young, Chris Coghlan, Jon Jay, Brett Wallace

Hitters (speed): It’s a Rajai Davis day. He’ll lead off against Huff.

Also consider: Michael Taylor, Cameron Maybin

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The Link.

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