The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for July 7

Agenda

1. The Mid-Stack Fade
2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
3. Daily DFS
4. SaberSim Observations
5. Tomorrow’s Targets
6. Factor Grid

1. The Mid-Stack Fade

For those who follow me closely, you’ll know I only play GPPs. I like to chase the big payday. In recent years, it’s become more and more important to use meta strategies aimed at building a unique lineup. Last night, I (unsuccessfully) used what I think of as a mid-stack fade. I’ll walk you through it.

I opted to use an Astros stack opposite Wade LeBlanc. However, instead of using Carlos Correa – arguably the linchpin of the stack – I paid $700 more for Xander Bogaerts. The rational is simple – nobody in their right mind would stack Astros AND pay more for Bogaerts. This allows me to build in a unique wrinkle to my lineup without using  a terrible player.

The play didn’t work – Correa outscored Bogaerts. This is part of the challenge of today’s GPPs. It’s necessary to de-optimize your lineups in order to maximize your chances of actually winning.

2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard

Well my roster flopped out of the gate thanks to Drew Smyly. KingTrout won yet again with the help of Marcus Stroman, Yangervis Solarte, and Wil Myers. Keep up the good work KT. The leaderboard is updated.

We’re heading back to FanDuel today for our usual 20-user, $2 Thin Thursday.

3. Daily DFS 

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: Only two games fall into the early slate and all four pitchers are worthy of consideration. If you use Tyler Glasnow on FanDuel in his debut against the Cardinals, be prepared to leave a lot of money on the table. He costs $4,600. If you simply roster all of the highest priced hitters with him, you’re liable to overlap with other owners. A strategery is needed.

The other end of that game features Adam Wainwright versus a scuffling Pirates lineup. The first game of the day pits Hector Santiago against Blake Snell.

Late: Drew Pomeranz and Rich Hill are the priciest pitchers of the slate, but I prefer Trevor Bauer versus the Yankees. He should receive plenty of run support versus Ivan Nova and the Yankees. Bauer’s recent breakout smells like the real thing, but his command is still solid-average at best. There’s downside here, but no more than the Hill or Pom matchups.

Speaking of breakouts, Danny Duffy has looked mighty sharp since rejoining the rotation. My reservation with him is his opponent – the Mariners. They have a platoon mashing lineup capable of punishing both lefties and righties. James Paxton could stifle the Royals offense too.

Jason Hammel has the tempting pairing with the Braves. Hammel is an ordinary pitcher with a modest ceiling. He fits better in cash games than GPPs. The Cubs should hand him an easy win opposite Lucas Harrell. Ignore Harrell’s season debut against the Marlins. He’s a swingman with minus command.

Stack Targets: Adam Morgan, Tyler Duffey, Lucas Harrell, Chi Chi Gonzalez, Chad Bettis, Nova, Drew Hutchison

4. SaberSim Observations

SaberSim isn’t on the Bauer bandwagon. The projection system recommends Hill, Pom, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Justin Verlander, and Hutchison. I’d steer clear of the game in Toronto. I foresee many home runs.

The stacks include a Coors game, Twins, Tigers, Blue Jays, and Astros.

5. Tomorrow’s Targets 

Pitchers to Start: Chad Green has some swing-and-miss stuff to go with good command and control. He’s not going to carry your fantasy team, but he’s probably one of the best widely available starting pitchers. He’s opposed by the firey Indians lineup.

Also consider: Daniel Mengden

Pitchers to Exploit: I’ve never seen a pitcher as consistently bad as Sean O’Sullivan receive so many chances in the majors. He debuted in 2009 and has pitched in the majors every year except 2012. Prior to 2016, he was terrible in all six attempts in the majors. And surprise, he’s terrible again this year.

Also consider: Ubaldo Jimenez, Francisco Liriano, Mike Pelfrey, Kyle Gibson, Matt Wisler, Vincent Velasquez, Jon Gray, Yordano Ventura, Andrew Cashner, Scott Kazmir, Pat Corbin

Hitters (power): Historically, Ezequiel Carrera is a speed-first fifth outfield candidate. This year, he’s offering more pop and less speed while batting leadoff for the Blue Jays. Regression is probably in the cards, but Pelfrey should help him perform for at least one more game.

Also consider: Mac Williamson, Yangervis Solarte, Seth Smith, Peter Bourjos, Robbie Grossman, Brandon Guyer, Corey Dickerson, Michael Saunders

Hitters (speed): Whit Merrifield is still keeping his head above water although he’s slowly sinking. He has a .294/.313/.407 line on the season with five steals. Once his .370 BABIP normalizes, he’ll be a replacement level player. Until then, he’s still batting second for the Royals.

Also consider: Michael Bourn, Cameron Maybin

6. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The Link.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.